A method for assessing risk of ship sea-bridge collision based on fuzzy-Bow-tie

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.015

Abstract

Abstract: In order to effectively reduce the risk of ship sea-bridge collision and improve the safety in bridge area, a new quantitative risk assessment method was therefore worked out. For working out the method, first, the Bow-tie model and the fuzzy set theory were combined to establish a fuzzy-Bow-tie model to quantitatively analyze the outcome events. Then the sensitivity analysis was applied to reveal the main impact factors leading to the collision. At last a risk assessment sample was given. The results show that the method based on fuzzy-Bow-tie model is suitable for quantitative assessment of risk of ship bridge collision, and that it can also provide decision support for safety management.

Key words: Bow-tie model, fuzzy set theory, sea bridge, ship-bridge collision, risk assessment, sensitivity analysis

CLC Number:

X913.4

CHEN Weijiong, LU Yining, ZHANG Shanjie, XIE Qimiao, XU Xunqi, GUO Jinchun. A method for assessing risk of ship sea-bridge collision based on fuzzy-Bow-tie[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(1): 87-92.

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