Deduction of leakage accident scenarios of oil pipelines based on Bayesian network

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.01.028

Abstract

Abstract: In order to improve emergency management of oil pipeline enterprises, a method combining scenario analysis and dynamic Bayesian network was used to study evolution process of oil pipeline leakage accident scenarios. Based on analysis of typical leakage cases, accident scenario state, emergency measures, driving factors, and emergency targets were selected as key elements, a scenario deduction model was established building on dynamic BN, and evolution law and path of leakage accident scenarios were analyzed. Finally, this model was applied to a leakage accident that occurred in an oil and gas pipeline company in China to calculate probability of scenario state and derive its development trend. The results show that scenario states that have a high probability to cause accidents are "pipeline damage and crude oil leakage caused by third-party construction excavations", "open flames on the ground", "ground residual fire", and "hidden danger of road surface residual oil burning".

Key words: Bayesian network (BN), oil & gas pipeline, leakage, scenario analysis, emergency management

CLC Number:

X937

QU Jing, ZHANG Jianbin, LI Xufang, LU Bao, HUA Ning, ZHU Xiaoman. Deduction of leakage accident scenarios of oil pipelines based on Bayesian network[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(1): 192-198.

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