China Safety Science Journal ›› 2024, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (8): 53-60.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.08.1295
• Safety social science and safety management • Previous Articles Next Articles
Received:
2024-03-02
Revised:
2024-06-07
Online:
2024-08-28
Published:
2025-02-28
CLC Number:
GENG Zengxian, CHEN Junyu. Risk assessment of low-altitude unmanned aerial vehicle operation based on fuzzy Bayesian network[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(8): 53-60.
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URL: http://www.cssjj.com.cn/EN/10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.08.1295
Table 1
UAV flight accidents summary
无人机飞行事故报告 | 风险因素 |
---|---|
起飞后爬升过程掉落,砸中围栏 | 机-环 |
油门异常,爬升姿态不稳定,操作员遥控着陆 | 人-机-管 |
下降发生抖动,降落时撞到围栏 | 机-环 |
监控到降落姿态不稳定,螺旋桨打到围栏 | 机-环-管 |
降落重试,爬升过程油门增大,无人机失控 | 机 |
监视到状态异常,启用应急程序后安全着陆 | 机-管 |
降落时发生转向,无人机失控侧翻碰撞到围栏 | 机-环 |
降落过程中姿态角过大,无人机紧急停浆 | 机 |
无人机航线监视异常,采取应急程序降落 | 机-管 |
降落重试时无人机姿态不稳定,执行应急降落 | 机-管 |
在终点未获得降落许可,应急降落撞到围栏 | 机-环-管 |
航路中无人机离线,应急程序降落碰到障碍物 | 机-环-管 |
无人机离线,未获得降落许可,采取应急程序 | 机-管 |
监视到飞行过程GPS更新频率低,应急备降 | 机-管 |
机载摄像头传图异常,操作员操作无人机迫降 | 人-机 |
Table 4
Mean statistics of triangular fuzzy numbers
点 | 三角模糊加权均值 | 点 | 三角模糊加权均值 |
---|---|---|---|
X11 | (0.35,0.53,0.73) | X31 | (0.40,0.60,0.77) |
X12 | (0.24,0.43,0.63) | X32 | (0.24,0.41,0.61) |
X21 | (0.32,0.52,0.70) | X33 | (0.42,0.62,0.79) |
X22 | (0.24,0.43,0.63) | X34 | (0.25,0.42,0.62) |
X23 | (0.17,0.34,0.54) | X41 | (0.25,0.44,0.64) |
X24 | (0.12,0.29,0.49) | X42 | (0.26,0.43,0.63) |
Table 6
CPT of UAV operational risk R
R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | P(R=0) | P(R=1) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 0 | 0.000 0 |
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.874 2 | 0.125 8 |
0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.691 8 | 0.308 2 |
0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.504 8 | 0.495 2 |
0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.929 2 | 0.070 8 |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.566 0 | 0.434 0 |
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.379 0 | 0.621 0 |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.803 4 | 0.196 6 |
0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.196 6 | 0.803 4 |
0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.621 0 | 0.379 0 |
0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.434 0 | 0.566 0 |
1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.070 8 | 0.929 2 |
1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.495 2 | 0.504 8 |
1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.308 2 | 0.691 8 |
0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.125 8 | 0.874 2 |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 0 | 1.000 0 |
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