Simulation analysis of evacuees competitive behavior based on system dynamics

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.11.0182

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to quantify the psychological changes of crowds and the impact of competitive factors on the behaviors of evacuees in emergency evacuation situations, a dynamic model was constructed that closely links the state of personnel psychological state with competitive influencing factors. In this model, the crowd was divided into three categories based on individual behavioral characteristics: independent evacuees, cooperative evacuees, and competitive evacuees. Three major factors influencing individual decision-making during the evacuation process were analyzed in depth: personal characteristics, social guidance mechanisms, and environmental factors. Specific parameter values were set, and SD were employed to simulate and study the behavioral characteristics of pedestrians during emergency evacuation. The research results indicate that as environmental visibility decreases and panic spreads, the proportion of competitive evacuees significantly increases. Conversely, when there are positive guiding behaviors and acts of helping others in the environment, these positive factors can effectively alleviate the crowd's anxiety and reduce competitive behaviors. Particularly noteworthy is that when multiple factors are coupled, the greater the competitive intensity, the more significant the positive effect of helping behaviors becomes. This shows that in highly stressful evacuation environments, positive social guidance and mutual assistance behaviors play a non-negligible role in relieving competitive pressure and improving evacuation efficiency.

Key words: system dynamics(SD), evacuees, competitive behavior, evacuation state, influencing factors

CLC Number:

X910安全人体学

LIU Juan, YE Ran, WANG Jinghong. Simulation analysis of evacuees competitive behavior based on system dynamics[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(11): 58-65.

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影响因素	二级指标
环境	疏散场所的复杂程度、逃生路线、疏散指示标识、疏散紧急程度、烟气扩散率、环境能见度等
社会	场所中人群密度、疏散速度、人流量、人群之间的社会关系、引导作用、帮助行为、人群情绪等
自身	人员的年龄、心理状态、生理状态、认知、社会关系、环境熟悉度以及疏散经历等

变量	含义	变量	含义
G	引导作用	P₂	烟气扩散率
H₁	帮助行为	E₁	竞争疏散人员
D	竞争强度	E₂	独立疏散人员
U	紧急程度	E₃	合作疏散人员
S	信息传播范围	C₁	竞争发生率1
L	领导者	C₂	竞争发生率2
A	接受程度	C₃	竞争发生率3
H₂	帮助概率	F₁	冷静率Flow
Y	年轻人占比	F₂	冷静率Flow1
V	能见度	F₃	冷静率Flow2
P₁	恐慌

参数	取值
总人数	800
烟气扩散率	0
视野受限程度	0.3
恐慌	0
接受程度	0.2
领导者	0.2
信息传播范围	2
同情心	0.2
年轻人占比	0.5

因素	平方和	均方	F
A	72 446.80	36 223.40	25.78
B	96 507.33	24 126.83	17.17
交互作用	11 243.87	28 159.02	20.04