Analysis of vulnerability characteristics and obstacle factors of outbound transportation systems in China's inland areas

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0824

Abstract

Abstract:

To optimize the layout of the outbound transportation system and enhance system resilience, a "Sensitivity-Response" dual-dimensional evaluation index system was constructed. The comprehensive methods including set pair analysis, spatial Markov chain, and obstacle degree model were used to analyze the dynamic characteristics and driving mechanisms of vulnerability in 225 inland cities in China. The findings reveal that vulnerability demonstrates significant multi-polarization and spatial club convergence. The overall vulnerability decreases annually, evolving from bi-polarization to multi-polarization, with a reduction of absolute difference. Vulnerability exhibits significant spatial auto-correlation and spillover effects, forming a spatial pattern where "high-vulnerability is clustered along the borders, while low-vulnerability diffuses from urban agglomerations". A low-vulnerability neighborhood environment increases the probability of a city's vulnerability transferring downward by 64.5%. The obstructive effects of both freight turnover volume and total import-export trade value weaken annually. In contrast, the hindering effect of shortest inland-port road travel time shifts from a relatively stable to a consistent increase. Furthermore, city hub level and connectivity impose significant constraints on vulnerability of non-hub cities.

Key words: inland areas, vulnerability of outbound transportation systems, spatio-temporal evolution, spatial spillover effects, obstacle factors

CLC Number:

X951交通运输安全

LI Jiemei, YANG Ying, ZHANG Yuanxiong. Analysis of vulnerability characteristics and obstacle factors of outbound transportation systems in China's inland areas[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(1): 174-181.

Figures/Tables 8

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准则层	结构层	指标层	指标含义与属性	权重
敏感性指标	关键路径通行时长	内陆-口岸公路最短旅行时间S₂₁	反映内陆出境公路可达性(+)	0.089
	关键路径通行时长	内陆-口岸铁路最短旅行时间S₂₂	反映内陆出境铁路可达性(+)	0.069
	运输通道技术等级	铁路技术水平S₂₃	反映铁路发展水平(-)	0.044
		高速公路通车里程S₂₄	反映公路发展水平(-)	0.042
		民航及通用机场数量S₂₅	反映航空发展水平(-)	0.034
	货运需求	货运周转量S₂₆	反映货运总需求(+)	0.219
	货运需求	进出口贸易额S₂₇	反映出境货运需求(+)	0.238
应对性指标	政府干预	交通运输、仓储邮政业固定资产投资比重R₂₁	反映交通基础设施建设水平(+)	0.034
	政府干预	城市交通枢纽等级R₂₂	反映国家对交通战略支持力度(+)	0.059
	交通供给能力	路网密度R₂₃	反映城市内部交通的发展程度(+)	0.042
		城市连接度R₂₄	反映城市对外交通联系便利程度(+)	0.073
		交通工具拥有数R₂₅	反映城市交通工具供给情况(+)	0.023
	运输服务能力	交通运输、仓储邮政业从业人员数R₂₆	反映交通运输业人力供给水平(+)	0.022
	运输服务能力	互联网普及率R₂₇	反映交通信息化水平(+)	0.013

指数	年份
指数	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
敏感性	0.581	0.573	0.566	0.552	0.538	0.521	0.507	0.495	0.483	0.458	0.444	0.429
应对性	0.352	0.365	0.375	0.387	0.399	0.411	0.423	0.435	0.448	0.461	0.476	0.490
脆弱性	0.607	0.597	0.590	0.576	0.563	0.548	0.534	0.522	0.510	0.490	0.475	0.461

脆弱性等级	低	中	较高	高
低	0.986	0.014	0.000	0.000
中	0.110	0.886	0.001	0.000
较高	0.000	0.014	0.747	0.005
高	0.000	0.000	0.221	0.775

邻接类型	脆弱性等级	低	中	较高	高
低	低	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
	较低	0.182	0.818	0.000	0.000
	中等	0.000	0.400	0.000	0.000
	较高	0.000	0.000	0.720	0.000
	高	0.000	0.000	0.370	0.601
中	低	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
	较低	0.121	0.877	0.000	0.000
	中等	0.000	0.378	0.000	0.000
	较高	0.000	0.079	0.719	0.000
	高	0.000	0.000	0.400	0.600
较高	低	0.900	0.100	0.000	0.000
	较低	0.058	0.923	0.000	0.000
	中等	0.000	0.132	0.019	0.000
	较高	0.000	0.000	0.801	0.010
	高	0.000	0.000	0.194	0.806
高	低	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
	较低	0.040	0.940	0.000	0.000
	中等	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
	较高	0.000	0.000	0.962	0.000
	高	0.000	0.000	0.102	0.898