China Safety Science Journal ›› 2021, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 165-172.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.01.024

• Public safety • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Fire probability analysis method of cable cabin in urban utility tunnel

MI Hongfu1,2, ZHANG Xiaomei1,2, YANG Wenjing1,2, WANG Wenhe1,2, LIU Yaling1,2, JIAO Yifei3   

  1. 1 College of Safety Engineering, Chongqing University of Science and Technology, Chongqing 401331, China;
    2 Chongqing Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Chongqing 401331, China;
    3 State Grid Sichuan Economic Research Institute, Chengdu Sichuan 610041, China
  • Received:2020-10-10 Revised:2020-12-15 Online:2021-01-28 Published:2021-07-28

Abstract: In order to improve evaluation accuracy of fire risk in cable cabin, a BN-based model for fire probability prediction and analysis was proposed. Firstly, BTA method was used to analyze causes of fire in cable cabin, and potential fire accident scene was established. Then, with influence of uncertain factors in accident scene taken into consideration, BN was applied to fire probability prediction and analysis, and the model was optimized based on actual development of cabin fire. Finally, with a utility tunnel as an example, the model's logic was verified on the ground of literature and statistical data. The results show that this model and method can predict and analyze occurrence and development probability of fire in cable cabin, and explore cause chain of these accidents, which provides a reference for fire risk analysis and accident prevention and control in utility tunnel.

Key words: utility tunnel, cable cabin, fire probability, bayesian networks (BN), bow-tie analysis (BTA), maximum cause chain

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