Risk evolution and evaluation for oil and gas leakage of pipeline in shallow sea

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.01.023

Abstract

Abstract: In order to prevent oil and gas pipeline leakage in shallow sea, a novel evaluation method integrating complex network and FMECA was proposed. Considering pipeline structure, leakage development process and logic relation between risk factors, a complex network model, which consisted of risk factors such as natural environment, internal and external corrosion, third party damage, and organizational management, was constructed. Then, risk entropy and FMECA were introduced to characterize probability and criticality of risks. Finally, the shortest path was applied with Dijkstra algorithm to identify the most potential failure modes of pipeline leakage. The results show that effect of initial events on leakage varies a lot. Inappropriate operational organization, as initial event with a probability of 5.20×10^-3 to cause accidents, has the greatest influence on leakage.

Key words: shallow sea, oil and gas pipeline leakage, complex network, risk entropy, failure mode effects and criticality analysis (FMECA)

CLC Number:

X944.4

REN Yuefeng, MENG Xiangkun, CHEN Guoming. Risk evolution and evaluation for oil and gas leakage of pipeline in shallow sea[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(1): 159-164.

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