Dry beach length pre-warning of tailings dam based on Bayesian decision

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.S1.0650

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to reasonably determine early warning threshold of dry beach length of tailings dam, firstly, change characteristics of dry beach length and permeability coefficient were analyzed, length data were discretized based on stability analysis of tailings dam and Bayesian decision theory, and its uncertainty was expressed by random variable. Secondly, safety factor range of dam bodies was discretized according to relevant regulations, a Bayesian decision model of correlation between safety factor and dry beach length was established, and Bayesian decision classification was conducted according to principle of minimum risk analysis before warning threshold of dry beach length was determined through maximum posterior probability. Finally, the early warning method was applied to a tailings pond in Shaanxi province. The results show that when the dry beach length is less than 170 m, tailings dam has the risk of dam failure, but the stability requirement can be met by increasing its length to 175 m through drainage. The early warning data of Bayesian decision is consistent with monitoring data of enterprises, and the warning threshold can objectively reflect stability state of tailings dam.

Key words: Bayesian decision, tailings dam, dry beach length, early warning threshold, stability analysis

LIU Di, LU Caiwu, LIAN Minjie, GU Qinghua, JING Ying. Dry beach length pre-warning of tailings dam based on Bayesian decision[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(S1): 120-126.

Figures/Tables 9

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岩土名称	天然容重/ (kN·m^-3)	饱和容重/ (kN·m^-3)	黏聚力/ kPa	内摩擦角/ (°)	饱和黏聚力/ kPa	饱和内摩擦角/ (°)	饱和含水量/ %	饱和渗透系数/ 10^-6(m·s^-1)
①尾粉砂	19	19.5	9.5	33	8	28	29.8	1.0~24
①_-1尾粉土	20	20.5	13	25	12	22	33.5	0.75~3.00
②尾粉土	20	20.5	13	25	12	22	33.5	0.75~3.0
③尾粉质土	20.6	20.6	10	15	10	15	45.3	0.02~0.6
④_-1坝体填土	18.5	19.5	30	28	28	25	9.6	1.0~36
④黄土状土	20.1	20.1	18	25	18	25	39.3	3.0~6.0
⑤千枚岩	23	23	2 000	60	2 000	60	0.3	0.1~0.3

区间长度/ m	10	15	20	25
最大后验概率	2.69	3.89	4.82	6.08
对应取值区间	[150,160]	[155,170]	[150, 170]	[145,170]
决策风险值	0.002 0	0.001 4	0.001 5	0.001