Studyonspatial-temporal and duration distribution characteristics of high-speed railway disruptions

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.S2.018

Abstract

Abstract: Studying the characteristics of disruptions and their duration time is of great significance in improving the advanced disruption prediction and real-time dispatching abilities in HSR. In this paper, historical disruption occurrence records of Chinese HSR in 2014 and 2015 were used to analyze their spatial-temporal distributions. Then, the disruptions were classified into seven clusters according to respective causations, and statistical description of each cluster was conducted. Next, log-normal distribution, Weibull distribution, and Gamma distribution were selected as candidate models to fit in their duration time, and the goodness-of-fit of candidate models were tested while using Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. The testing results reveal: the probabilities of disruptions are spatiotemporally different, the log-normal function has the best goodness-of-fit, and the duration time of each classified disruption can be regarded as a random variable following log-normal distribution.

Key words: high-speed railway (HSR), disruption, spatial-temporal distribution, duration, log-normal distribution

CLC Number:

X928.03

HUANG Ping, LI Zhongcan, WEN Chao, PENG Qiyuan. Studyonspatial-temporal and duration distribution characteristics of high-speed railway disruptions[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(S2): 99-104.

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