Abstract: In order to facilitate normalization of the analysis procedures and expression methods of evolution path in emergency decision-making on urban commercial complex fire accident, urban commercial complex fire was studied on the basis of the knowledge element model. Characteristic elements were identified for expressing the accident, including the factors causing disaster, the object of disaster, and the activating elements. An analysis pattern for influence factors of the evolution of urban commercial complex fire accident was set up so as to improve the comprehensiveness of the research methods of evolution path and the accuracy of the decision of emergency command. Meanwhile, a scenario evolution path analysis and expression mode was established on the basis of the influence factors of evolution. The research provides a decision basis for the response to urban commercial complex fire accidents based on the possible evolution path.

Key words: urban commercial complex, fire accidents, scenario, characteristic elements, influence factor, evolution path, decision of emergency command