Research on risk assessment and early warning of safety management in thermal power enterprises based on AHP

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.S1.0005

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to verify the scientific rationality of the risk assessment database of safety management and early warning mechanism for thermal power enterprises and achieve the controllability of safety risks in thermal power enterprises, an indicator system of safety management risk assessment was constructed, and an evaluation model for safety management risks in thermal power enterprises was established. The AHP modeling was used to analyze and evaluate the indicator system and determine the safety management risk level and weights for thermal power enterprises. Early warning strategies for safety management in thermal power enterprises were proposed, and the reliability of the results was validated through examples. The results show that the risk assessment database of safety management can assess and warn of potential accident risks in advance and automatically provide control and corrective measures and plans, thereby eliminating accidents in their early stages, reducing the frequency of accidents, and improving the level of safety production management.

Key words: thermal power enterprise, safety management, risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) modeling, early warning research

CLC Number:

X945

CHEN Cheng, WANG Hua, LI Qiang. Research on risk assessment and early warning of safety management in thermal power enterprises based on AHP[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(S1): 8-13.

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一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	影响因素
火电企业安全管理风险 a	检修作业活动风险 b₁	锅炉专业活动风险c₁₁ 灰硫专业活动风险c₁₂ 汽机专业活动风险c₁₃ 电气专业活动风险c₁₄ 热工专业活动风险c₁₅ 燃料专业活动风险c₁₆	(1) 员工技术操作水平 (2) 安全意识评价 (3) 技能培训情况 (4) 工作态度评价
	运行作业活动风险 b₂	常规操作活动风险c₂₁ 专项操作活动风险c₂₂ 定期切换与试验风险c₂₃ 紧急隔离操作活动风险c₂₄ 巡检作业活动风险c₂₅	(1) 设备运行率 (2) 事故预案准备情况 (3) 工作日志审查 (4) “三票三制”执行情况
	设备故障风险 b₃	低风险c₃₁ 较低风险c₃₂ 中风险c₃₃	(1) 设备损坏情况 (2) 环境污染情况 (3) 影响机组安全 (4) 人身安全
	区域环境风险 b₄	高温、噪音风险c₄₁ 空气流通风险c₄₂ 高处作业风险c₄₃ 有限空间风险c₄₄ 氨气、尿素泄漏污染风险c₄₅ 尘肺病风险c₄₆	(1) 机械伤害情况 (2) 煤工尘肺情况 (3) 中暑情况 (4) 噪声聋情况 (5) 雷雨等恶劣天气
	管理活动风险 b₅	日常管理风险c₅₁ 现场管理风险c₅₂ 夜间及双休日管理风险c₅₃	(1) 安全管理制度建设情况 (2) 工作责任划分 (3) 制度落实情况 (4) 组织体系建设
	公司高风险b₆	较大风险c₆₁ 重大风险c₆₂ 高风险c₆₃	(1) 触电、机械伤害、中毒与窒息等 (2) 火灾、脚手架垮塌、高空坠落、机械伤害等 (3) 物体打击、起重伤害、灼烫、辐射、环境污染等

a	b₁	b₂	b₃	b₄	b₅	b₆	权重W
b₁	1	1	2	3	3	2	0.269 48
b₂	1	1	2	3	3	2	0.269 48
b₃	1/2	1/2	1	2	2	1	0.148 63
b₄	1/3	1/3	1/2	1	1	1/2	0.818 9
b₅	1/3	1/3	1/2	1	1	1/2	0.818 9
b₆	1/2	1/2	1	2	2	1	0.148 63

b₁	c₁₁	c₁₂	c₁₃	c₁₄	c₁₅	c₁₆	W₁
c₁₁	1	2	1	1	2	1	0.199 72
c₁₂	1/2	1	1/2	1/2	1	1/2	0.998 6
c₁₃	1	2	1	1	2	1	0.199 72
c₁₄	1	2	1	1	1	1/2	0.162 68
c₁₅	1/2	1	1/2	1	1	1/2	0.112 68
c₁₆	1	2	1	2	2	1	0.225 36

b₂	c₂₁	c₂₂	c₂₃	c₂₄	c₂₅	W₂
c₂₁	1	3	3	3	1	0.333 33
c₂₂	1/3	1	1	1	1/3	0.111 11
c₂₃	1/3	1	1	1	1/3	0.111 11
c₂₄	1/3	1	1	1	1/3	0.111 11
c₂₅	1	3	3	3	1	0.333 33

b₃	c₃₁	c₃₂	c₃₃	W₃
c₃₁	1	1/2	1/3	0.163 78
c₃₂	2	1	1/2	0.297 26
c₃₃	3	2	1	0.538 96