Research on bridge operational safety risk decision-making based on fuzzy cognitive maps

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.09.0861

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to investigate the decision-making mechanism for operational safety risks in bridges and mitigate major operational safety hazards, a three-stage theoretical framework comprising risk perception, risk cognition, and risk decision-making for bridge operational safety was established. H-OWA operator was employed to process expert evaluations, constructing an interaction matrix for decision factors. The meanings and structure of concept nodes within FCM were defined to elucidate the mapping relationships between factors. Monitoring data collected during train passages on a specific railway bridge on January 1, 2020, was utilized for conducting engineering application and validation analysis. The results show that the weight importance ranking of bridge structure acceleration, strain, and displacement is the highest among the iterative process importance ranking, indicating their critical roles in perceiving bridge structure health. Moreover, the implementation effect of reinforcement strategies for the substructure of the bridge is significantly higher than that of waterproofing and insulation and reinforcement of the superstructure under low, medium, and high-risk scenarios, effectively enhancing the overall stability and safety of the bridge.

Key words: fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM), bridge operational safety, risk decision-making, Heronian ordered weighted averaging (H-OWA) operator, maintenance strategies

CLC Number:

X913.4安全系统工程

XIANG Pengcheng, GUO Peiwen, ZHANG Xueqin. Research on bridge operational safety risk decision-making based on fuzzy cognitive maps[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(9): 202-211.

Figures/Tables 9

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维度	因素	含义
结构健康感知	加速度	桥梁由于车辆行驶、风力等外部因素产生的振动加速度
	应变	桥梁结构在受到外部荷载时,内部产生的变形程度
	位移	桥梁在外部荷载作用下的整体或局部位移量
	结构温度	桥梁结构内部的温度分布情况
	结构湿度	桥梁结构内部的湿度情况
	桥梁结构	桥梁的整体结构状况
运营环境感知	空气温度	桥梁所在区域的空气温度
	空气湿度	桥梁所在区域的空气湿度
	降雨量	桥梁所在区域的降雨量
	风速	桥梁所在区域的风速和风向
	车速	列车通行时速
	运营环境	桥梁运营所处的综合环境
安全风险评估	发生概率	在特定时间内,桥梁发生安全事故的概率
	人员伤亡	桥梁事故中受伤或死亡的人员数量
	经济损失	桥梁事故直接或间接造成的经济价值损失
	环境影响	桥梁事故对周围环境造成的负面影响
	安全事故	桥梁发生的各类安全事故
运营维护策略		保障桥梁结构安全性能的措施

数值	横向加速度/ (m·s^-2)	桥面应变/ (μm·m^-1)	支座位移/ m	桥面温度/℃	桥面湿度 /%	平均空气温度/ ℃	平均相对湿度/ %	总降雨量/ mm	地表10 m 处平均风速/ (m·s^-1)	车速/ (km·h^-1)
最小值	-0.300	-0.000 005 5	-0.018 99	2.453	69.257	-0.120	67.533	0	0.43	0
最大值	0.342	0.000 000 4	-0.018 93	12.319	97.375	13.095	98.093	0.2	4.43	160
监测值	0.018	-0.000 002 1	-0.018 94	2.898	91.076	0.707	98.093	0	1.30	103.5
标准化	0.496	0.565	0.783	0.045	0.776	0.063	1	0	0.218	0.647

指标阈值			低风险			中风险	高风险
指标阈值			等级1	等级2	等级3	等级4	等级5
风险发生概率	范围/%		[0, 0.000 3)	[0.000 3, 0.003)	[0.003, 0.03)	[0.03, 0.3)	[0.3, 1]
风险发生概率	取值/%		0.003			0.03	0.3
人员伤亡	范围/ 人	死亡 (含失踪)	—	(0, 3)	[3, 10)	[10, 30)	[30, +∞)
	范围/ 人	重伤	(0, 5)	[5, 10)	[10, 50)	[50, 100)	[100, +∞)
	取值/%		0.05			0.1	0.5
经济损失	范围/万元		[0, 500)	[500, 1 000)	[1 000, 5 000)	[5 000, 10 000)	[10 000, +∞)
经济损失	取值/%		0.05			0.1	0.5
环境影响	范围/人		[0, 50)	[50, 100)	[100, 500)	[500, 1 000)	[1 000, +∞)
环境影响	取值/%		0.05			0.1	0.5

指标	权重重要度统计					迭代过程统计				综合排序
指标	ϕ	ψ	ϕ+ψ	ϕ-ψ	求和 (排序)	初始值	稳态值 (排序)	损失值	收敛速度 (排序)	综合排序
加速度	1.141	1.141	2.281	0.000	2.281(1)	0.495 8	0.887 1(1)	-0.391 3	0.065 2(2)	1
应变	0.851	0.851	1.702	0.000	1.702(3)	0.565 2	0.858 0(3)	-0.292 8	0.048 8(3)	3
位移	0.869	0.869	1.738	0.000	1.738(2)	0.783 0	0.860 1(2)	-0.077 2	0.012 9(4)	2
结构温度	0.303	0.263	0.566	0.040	0.606(4)	0.045 1	0.760 7(5)	-0.715 6	0.119 3(1)	4
结构湿度	0.263	0.303	0.566	-0.040	0.606(4)	0.776 0	0.767 0(4)	0.009 0	0.001 5(5)	5

指标		基准稳定值	防水隔热		上部结构加固		下部结构加固
指标		基准稳定值	稳定值	差异/%	稳定值	差异/%	稳定值	差异/%
加速度		0.887 1	0.887 1	0.008 9	0.933 6	5.249 5	0.894 0	0.788 9
应变		0.858 0	0.858 1	0.009 8	0.915 7	6.716 8	0.915 0	6.641 5
位移		0.860 1	0.860 2	0.009 7	0.866 0	0.684 1	0.916 3	6.532 0
结构温度		0.760 7	0.855 2	12.414 0	0.760 9	0.018 4	0.760 9	0.0184
结构湿度		0.767 0	0.859 7	12.087 6	0.767 2	0.018 0	0.767 2	0.018 0
桥梁结构		0.967 9	0.970 1	0.230 7	0.970 3	0.245 9	0.970 7	0.290 5
运营维护策略	低风险	0.760 4	0.760 7	0.038 6	0.760 7	0.041 4	0.760 7	0.050 0
	中风险	0.753 2	0.753 5	0.044 0	0.753 5	0.046 8	0.753 6	0.055 7
	高风险	0.713 9	0.714 4	0.080 1	0.714 5	0.083 4	0.714 5	0.093 8