China Safety Science Journal

Impact of workers' safety participation on accidents

CAO Qingren, YANG Xiaobing, CAO Ming, LI Shuang

2018, 28(11): 1-7. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.001

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To explore the different effects of safety participation on accidents, possible relationships between safety participation, safety climate, safety knowledge, safety motivation, safety compliance and accidents were investigated. The 739 responses, coming from front line employees in two coal mines and two power plants in China, were evaluated. The results suggest that safety climate, safety knowledge, and safety motivation partially mediate the relationship between safety participation to safety compliance and safety compliance, that safety compliance affects directly accidents,and that the effect of safety participation on accidents requires the mediating effects of other variables, especially that of safety compliance.

Impact of young novice driver's road anger emotion on his/her behavioral decision-making process

LIU Lingli, WANG Yue

2018, 28(11): 8-13. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.002

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A driver's information processing decision model was built based on the Wickens' model. The model reflects the impacts of road anger emotions on attention, perceptual coding and thinking decision. A questionnaire was designed to carry out a survey into drivers of low driving age who have been driving for 0-6 years. The SEM method was used to verify whether road anger emotions impact novice driver's behavioral decision-making process. The results show that road anger emotions have direct and significant effects on novice driver's attention, perceptual coding and thinking decision, the impact coefficients are 0.57, 0.60 and 0.40 respectively.

Research on coal miners' unsafe behavior based on job satisfaction

WANG Jiakun, WANG Xinhua, WANG Chen

2018, 28(11): 14-20. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.003

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In order to discuss the influence degree of miners' job satisfaction on work safety in coal mine, this paper analyzes and refines the relevant variables to measure the job satisfaction and unsafe behavior firstly, and puts forward the basis hypothesis. Then, the questionnaire design, data collection and statistical analysis are carried out. Finally, a second-order confirmatory factor analysis model and a causal path analysis model are built through the SEM model to discuss the relationships between both miners' individual characteristics and their job satisfaction and their unsafe behavior. The results show that the miners' educational and income levels have significant an influence on their unsafe behavior, that the job satisfaction, measured from three dimensions has a significant inhibition effect on the miners' unsafe behavior. Countermeasures and suggestions on improving the level of coal miner safety management are proposed from the performance appraisal and employee demand levels.

Research on identification of aircraft abnormal trajectory in terminal area

LI Nan, QIANG Yigeng, SUN Yu, DENG Renbo

2018, 28(11): 21-27. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.004

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To ensure the flight safety in the terminal area and reduce the workload of the controller, factors relating to aircraft trajectory were considered such as the position, speed and altitude, a definition and identification process of the aircraft abnormal trajectory in the terminal area were proposed, a speed correction coefficient based model was built for trajectory similarity,by which trajectories can be automatically classified by the spectral clustering method, the characteristics of each type of trajectory data were calculated, two central trajectories were selected to characterize the position features of each type of trajectory, and the similarity distance and flight distance between the trajectories were extracted as anomaly feature factors for identifying aircraft anomaly trajectories. The results show that the trajectory similarity model based on velocity correction coefficient can be used to realize the automatic classification of aircraft trajectory, and the classification result is more reasonable and accurate, and that both improving the abnormal feature factor and setting two central trajectories are helpful in improving the abnormal detection effect.

Simulation and experimental research on humidity field of fully mechanized mining face based on finite element method

GUO Shaoshuai, JING Guoxun, WANG Yuansheng, ZHOU Fei

2018, 28(11): 28-34. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.005

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In order to fully understand the humidity field in the underground fully-mechanized mining face, this paper USES COMSOL Multiphysics numerical simulation software to simulate the air flow and humidity distribution in the fully-mechanized mining face,and makes a comparative analysis with the field humidity measurement. The results show that the maximum humidity area of the fully mechanized mining face is located near the coal cutter (the humidity value is close to 98%), there is a high humidity area with ribbon at the back of the coal cutter close to the coal wall, and the humidity value of outlet position is higher than that of inlet position, that the overall deviation of the simulated humidity value from the measured humidity value is within 1.8%, and that the numerical simulation method is accurate and reliable, which can be used to study the humidity field in the underground fully-mechanized mining face.

A method of fitting urban rail transit passenger flow time series

XIONG Zhi, ZHONG Shaobo, SONG Dunjiang, YU Zhichen, HUANG Quanyi

2018, 28(11): 35-41. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.006

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In order to effectively guide traffic dispatching, prevent and deal with rail transit emergencies, the curve fitting method was used to mine the trend characteristics of passenger flow time series. Based on the analysis of time distribution law of passenger flow and the exploration of data, the time series modeling and optimization of passenger flow in 36 subway stations in Beijing in a single day were carried out by global fitting, artificial piecewise fitting and automatic piecewise fitting, and a comparison in both the fitting results and R² index was made between the three methods. The research shows that the piecewise fitting uses the local function to model the dynamic process of passenger flow change, which can better approximate the actual situation than the global fitting, that in the case of piecewise fitting, the automatic piecewise strategy is adopted, which can avoid the subjectivity in artificially determining piecewise points, and achieve optimal optimization, further improving the efficiency and accuracy of prediction analysis.

Review of application of JD-R model and theory in behavior based safety

TONG Ruipeng, YANG Xiaoyi

2018, 28(11): 42-47. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.007

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In order to control personal unsafe behavior and improve individual capacity of choosing safety behavior, the JD-R model and theory were introduced for researching and implementing BBS. The JD-R model and theory were reviewed from the aspects of origin, development, model framework and contents. Applications of JD-R in the studies of BBS were reviewed from the perspectives of research fields and objects, methodologies, model factors, relationship beween factors, comparison of the whole model. Further research areas and management suggestions were proposed. The results show that JD-R model and theory provide an ideal theoretical basis and model framework for the research of BBS, and the further study and management can be conducted according the characteristics of the job, the pattern of environment-psychology-behavior, focusing on occupational mental health.

Experimental study on characteristics of edible oil pool fires different in diameter

XU Xiaoyuan, LIU Xuanya, LI Ziting, WANG Pengfei, ZHU Hongya

2018, 28(11): 48-52. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.008

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In order to explore the prevention, detection and extinguishing technology of edible oil fires, edible pool fires different in diameter were tested. The parameters of oil layer temperature, flame and plume temperature, mass loss rate and flame height were measured. The combustion characteristics of edible pool fires were analyzed, including the development process of edible oil pool from heating to spontaneous combustion to combustion, the change of the temperature of the oil layer, the temperature of the flame and the fire plume flow, the rate of the mass loss. The effect of diameter of oil pan on burning rate of the edible oil pool fire was analyzed. The heat release rates corresponding to different diameters of oil pan were calculated with theoretical formula. The results show that the maximum burning rate of edible oil pool fire is about 2.3 mm/min, and the heat release rates of edible oil pool fires with 25, 40, 55, 70 and 85 cm diameter are 20, 60, 190, 375 and 55 kW respectively.

Study on combustion process and temperature characteristics of 20 Ah LiFePO₄ battery

WANG Shuang, DU Zhiming, ZHANG Zelin

2018, 28(11): 53-58. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.009

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To prevent LiFePO₄ battery thermal runaway accidents, thermal runaway tests of 20 Ah LiFePO₄ battery were carried out in a combustion test chamber. Its combustion process, temperature characteristics, mass and voltage changes under three SOC were studied. The evolution of the jet flame was analyzed. The effects of SOC on surface temperature, flame temperature and mass loss were studied. And the phases of voltage change during thermal runaway were identified. The results show that during the combustion process, the thermal runaway process occurs twice, and the second thermal runaway process is more dangerous, that at most 5 jet flames are formed accompanied by flame liftoff, that as the SOC increases, the surface temperature, mass loss, fire risk and mass loss rate become larger, the combustion duration is inversely proportional to the SOC, that SOC has only a marginal effect on the temperature at different locations on the surface when thermal runaway occurs, and that the effect of SOC on both flame temperature and voltage is not significant.

Study on performance of ZIF-8/BC synergistic intumescent flame retardant for polypropylene

YE Qing, OU Hongxiang, GUO Wei, YU Peilin, SHAN Xueying, XING Zhixiang

2018, 28(11): 59-65. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.010

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To improve the flame retardant properties of PP, melamine phosphate was used as an acid source and a gas source, dipentaerythritol was used as a carbon source to form an intumescent flame retardant system, and different proportions of ZIF-8/BC created by ZIF-8 material and BC were added into the system as synergist. The combustion properties, mechanical properties and thermal stability of the new halogen-free intumescent flame retardant composite were studied. The results indicate that the intumescent flame retardant system could effectively improve the flame retardancy of PP, and without the addition of ZIF-8/BC the oxygen index increases to 31.4%, while the tensile strength decreases to 17.37 MPa, that the addition of ZIF-8/BC slightly reduces the oxygen index of the composites, but improves the mechanical properties of the composites, that when ZIF-8/BC with a ratio of ZIF-8∶BC of 1∶2 is added, the oxygen index and tensile strength of the material are 27.2% and 19.87 MPa respectively, and that addition of ZIF-8/BC could increase the carbon content of composites, and it increases with the BC content, and that ZIF-8/BC as the synergistic agent has a positive effect on formation of dense carbon layer structure and smoke suppression.

Analysis of factors influencing air-methane explosion suppression by ultrafine water mist

YANG Ke, XING Zhixiang, JI Hong, SHU Yao, ZHANG Ping, ZUO Jiaqi

2018, 28(11): 66-71. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.011

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In order to know further about the inhibitory effect of ultrafine water mist on explosion of mixture of air and methane, a small size and semi-closed visual experimental platform was built, and experiments were carried out by using the platform. Four factors including the volume of the ultrafine water mist sprayed, the volume fraction of methane, the position where methane was pumped into and the premixed time were taken into consideration, and single factor experiments and the orthogonal experiments were carried out. The authors have come to the conclusion that ultrafine water mist can inhibit explosion of mixture of air and methane effectively, especially that of the mixture with 9.5% methane, there is a positive correlation between the volume of the ultrafine water mist and the inhibitory effect, that the volume fraction of methane has a remarkable influence on maximum explosion overpressure (ΔP_max) of methane explosion, and the volume of ultrafine water mist sprayed has a certain influence on it, and that the volume of ultrafine water mist has a remarkable influence on the spreading time of fire in methane explosion,and the volume fraction of methane has a certain influence on the spreading time.

Research on damage characteristics of rock bedding under blasting load

WANG Zhide, MA Zuyao

2018, 28(11): 72-79. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.012

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Damage control of bedding slope under the blasting load is a common problem in the slope engineering field. In order to investigate the damage characteristics of bedding slope under blasting loads, four on-site blasting tests were carried out, from which the variations in sound velocity at different positions before and after the blasting were investigated. The 10% reduction of the sound velocity was regarded as the critical line of damage. The damage characteristics of the slope under single and multiple blasting operations were analyzed, and the correlation between the amount of explosive and the damage range of slope was developed. Besides, 3DEC software was used to analyze the damage development of slope under blasting load. Both the field test and numerical analysis results suggest that the damage range of slope increases with the increasing amount of explosive, and that the damage degree of slope clearly increases with the times of blasting operation. However, the former does not change linearly with the latter. Likely due to that the numerical simulations only consider the rock joint but ignore the influence of rock crack, the damage ranges of slope obtained from the numerical analyses are generally smaller than those measured from the field tests.

Effect of dispersion condition of NaHCO₃ on inhibiting methane-air mixture explosion

WANG Yalei, ZHENG Ligang, YU Shuijun, LI Gang, ZHU Xiaochao

2018, 28(11): 80-85. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.013

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Both the dispersion pressure and ignition delay time have a significant influence on the spatial distribution of the powder inhibitor, thus on the efficiency of explosion inhibition. To study the effect of dispersion condition of given mass of NaHCO₃ on inhibiting 9.5% methane-air mixture explosion, a series of experiments were conducted in a self-built 5 L duct having a capability of changing both the dispersion pressure and the ignition delay time. Based on the powder dispersion state visualized by a high-speed camera and the explosion inhibition efficiency, conclusions can be drawn as follows. First, the dispersion pressure and the ignition delay time should be changed with the mass of NaHCO₃. An inappropriate dispersion pressure cannot enable the NaHCO₃ powder to distribute evenly in the duct. Specially, the larger the mass of NaHCO₃ is,the higher the dispersion pressure should be. Moreover, under the same dispersion pressure condition, there is a positive correlation between the ignition delay time required for achieving the even powder dispersion and the mass of the powder. Second, the inhibitor with the excellent efficiency can always prolong the flame propagation time by hundreds of milliseconds. Therefore, the NaHCO₃ powder would always be spatially uneven at the initial stage of the flame propagation owing to the gravitational sedimentation, provided that the ignition was activated at the moment when the powder achieved the best spatially-even dispersion. Consequently, to evaluate the efficiency of the inhibitor reasonably when the powder dispersion system and the ignition system are located at the bottom of the duct, the ignition delay time should be chosen during the rising stage of the powder dispersion at which the powder is about to fill fully the duct.

Safety assessment of refined hydrogenation reactor with plane embedded defects

DU Liang, BIE Kai, ZHAO Yajie, ZHANG Guojin, YAN He

2018, 28(11): 86-91. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.014

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The finite element simulation method and general failure assessment criterion were applied to evaluate the pressure vessels containing planar defects. A burial plane defect was discovered in a certain kerosene hydrofining reactor during the periodic inspection process. A steady state thermal analysis and a mechanical stress analysis of the main structure of the reactor were made based on ANSYS. Primary stress and secondary stress with their components under design condition and hydraulic test condition were determined for the routine evaluation, the assessment was carried out following the procedures for pressure vessels containing defects. Result shows that the stress state of the equipment, especially the local stress level of the defective area can be obtain more accurately by using the stress analysis method given in this paper, and that the evaluation point formed by the fracture ratio and the ratio of the load is located in the safety area of general safety assessment chart, which means that the defect is a safe one.

Study on inner and outer temperature distribution of high-voltage power cable being overloaded

LIU Kai, XIE Qiyuan

2018, 28(11): 92-97. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.015

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In order to prevent overload and further thermal disaster due to inadequate core cross-sectional areas to current load' demands, based on radial layered material distribution structure of high voltage cable, the coupling mechanism of the heat generation of the core inside the cable, the heat conduction of the interlayer and the heat dissipation of the outer layer was explored. For the same cable, by keeping the core section and outer layer structure unchanged, the temperature evolution of the cable both inside and outside in different cases of overload triggered by different current intensities was analyzed. The human factors causing the overheat of core were also analyzed, including some unscrupulous manufacturers maliciously reducing the core section. And the effects of both the condition of surface convection heat dissipation and the core type on the overload overheating behavior were discussed. The results show that both extremely thin cable core and thick outer layer materials will lead to significantly increased temperature of the cable both inside and outside, which easily causes the thermal disaster, and that compared with the copper core cable, the aluminum core cable generates heat more efficiently, thus it is more likely to cause a thermal disaster in a poor ventilation and heat dissipation environment.

Quantitative evaluation of resilience of metro engineering system based on Bayesian networks

CHEN Qun, HUANG Qian, CHEN Zhe, WANG Zhiyang

2018, 28(11): 98-103. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.016

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To improve the safety and stability of metro construction projects, and to ensure efficient construction activities, this paper was aimed at studying and evaluating the capability of the metro engineering system to resist and adapt to risks, as well as to maintain normal productions. A concept of resilience of metro engineering system was introduced. Factors influencing the resilience were analyzed. BN was employed for studying the ability of the metro engineering system in resisting risks and quickly recovering. A resilience model representing the causal relationships between those components has been built with a BN. Then, data samples from survey results were exploited to learn the parameters of the network, before the network can be adjusted to quantitatively analyze the impacts of the components on the system resilience, so that important actions and objects to monitor were recommended. The results show that the resilience model of the metro engineering system can be used to accurately quantify the resilience of the metro engineering system, analyze effects of the factors on the resilience, and thus improve the construction management capability.

Research on identification of black spots for highway based on system clustering method

NIU Zhipeng, QI Shouming, WU Dongling, LIU Wenjia, LIAN Guan

2018, 28(11): 104-109. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.017

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In order to improve the road traffic environment in the plateau area,and increase the identification accuracy of black spots, based on statistical data on road traffic accidents in Yunnan province from 2010 to 2015, the statistical analysis method was used to analyze the characteristics of highway traffic accidents and temporal and spatial distribution in the plateau area. Regarding the number of accidents and the number of equivalent accidents in millions of kilometers as indicators, the systematic clustering method was used to identify the type of highway traffic accidents in the plateau area. Then, it was analyzed with Kunshi expressway as an example,a total of 11 accident-prone points were identified, which match the actual situation effectively. The results show that,in terms of time distribution,highway traffic accidents in the plateau area happen frequently in winter and spring, that the accident rate is highest in the afternoon and the evening, that in terms of space, road accidents in the counties and townships in the plateau region occur more frequently, that from the point of view of accidents, highway accidents in the plateau area are mostly frontal collisions and scratching pedestrians, which occupied 57% of the total number of accidents.

Dynamic response of surrounding rock of goaf group under seismic loading

ZHOU Zilong, LIU Fu, WANG Haiquan, RUI Yichao

2018, 28(11): 110-115. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.018

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To research the dynamic response characteristics of goaf surroundings and pillars under seismic loading, dynamic response process of goaf group is simulated by FLAC^3D in this paper. Based on the maximum and minimum principal stress of every step obtained during seismic action, the variation characteristics of the shear and tension failure stress for the roof, the floor, pillar and side wall around goaf group are analyzed. The results demonstrate that during the seismic action, the central region stress of goaf is most stable and the stress fluctuation become larger away from the central region, after the seismic action, the shear resistances of the goaf roof and floor slightly reduce and the tensile resistances obviously decrease. At the same time, the tensile failure area of the side wall becomes larger.

Analysis of four-hole culvert settlement caused by underlying shield tunnel of intercity railway

ZHU Yaofeng, TIAN Shuguang, NI Jinpeng, FAN Guoxiang

2018, 28(11): 116-121. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.019

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To solve the problem of excessive settlement caused by shield tunnel of intercity railway underlying existing structure in silt stratum, in the background of shield tunnel underlying four-hole culvert on Zhuji Intercity Railway, the settlement caused by shield tunnel underlying four-hole culvert was analyzed after consulting related standards, carrying out numerical simulation and monitoring. A three-dimensional numerical model was built for analysis of the settlement value of the culvert structure and the surrounding soil before reinforcement. A strengthening scheme was designed and used. A new numerical model was built for analysis of the settlement after reinforcement. A comparison was made between the field monitoring data after reinforcement and the data obtained by using the new model. The results show that the maximum settlement value of culvert is reduced from -45 mm to -1.5 mm, the field monitoring value after reinforcement is -3.1 mm, and the maximum settlement value of surface is reduced from -51 mm to -7 mm, the field monitoring value after reinforcement is -10.1 mm, and that the reinforcement scheme has a good strengthening effect and the two numerical models have great effectiveness and it provides reference for future similar.

Study on safety parameters of pressure relief borehole in rockburst coal seam

LI Yunpeng, ZHANG Hongwei, ZHU Zhijie, GUO Chao

2018, 28(11): 122-128. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.020

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In order to guarantee the mining safety of isolated working face, the safety parameters of the pressure relief boreholes have to be determined scientifically. The borehole pressure relief radius range under the geological condition of No.8939 panel was obtained by theoretical calculation. Then combined with numerical simulation method, from the perspectives of stress and energy, the theoretical calculation results were verified. Then, a field measurement plan was worked out according to the results. The yielded range and spacing between pressure relief boreholes were measured by BOTDR technology on site. The results show that the larger the size of pressure relief boreholes is, the better the pressure relief effect will be, and the greater the disturbance to the coal seam will be, so an oversize pressure relief borehole may induce the rockburst, that borehole spacing has a critical value, when the borehole spacing is less than the value, the deformation degree of coal seam is large and the pressure relief effect is better, and when the borehole spacing is higher than the value, the deformation degree of coal seam is weak and the pressure relief effect is marginal, and that for the geological condition of No.8939 panel, the suitable values of the diameter and the spacing are108 mm and 0.7 m respectively. The research results ensure the mining safety of the No.8939 panel.

Study on factors influencing fire safety management in universities based on DEMATEL/ISM

BU Lijun, YU Zhenjiang, SHAO Zekai

2018, 28(11): 129-134. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.021

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This paper establishes a fire safety management system for universities, uses the DEMATEL/ISM methods to calculate influence degrees, influenced degrees, center degrees, cause degrees of the factors affecting the management, establishes a hierarchical structure model,and examines the locations of the influencing factors in the fire safety management system structure. The results show that fire safety organization staff, fire safety education, fire safety organization and responsibilities, fire safety management system and operation rules are cause factors having a great influence on other factors. Non-fire safety organization staff, building fire risk, fire protection facilities, and electrical facilities are the result factors and are greatly affected by other factors, and that the values of importance of fire safety inspection and rectification, fire safety culture, fire safety education, fire safety management system and operation regulations, fire safety organization personnel are gradually increasing in the entire fire safety management system, and it is necessary to strengthen both managing and controlling factors having great importance.

A study of key factors influencing enterprise safety compliance from perspective of regulation

GAO Yuan, FAN Yunxiao, WANG Jing, WANG Yifan

2018, 28(11): 135-141. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.022

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For the sake of improving the safety compliance level of enterprises in China, key influencing factors were identified from a perspective of government safety compliance regulation by literature review and a model was built for the factors. Four aspects were analyzed, including the regulated objects, safety regulations, supervision methods, and regulatory bodies. The results show that the key factors influencing the compliance for regulated objects are safety culture, safety leadership, safety training, and employee personalities, that detailed safety regulations will increase the compliance burden and reduce the compliance level of enterprises, that the two regulation methods, "opposition type" and "cooperative type", will fundamentally have different impacts on organizational safety compliance, and that from the perspective of regulatory bodies, the key factors are institutional setup of regulatory bodies, capacity and quantity of regulatory personnel, and a one-dimensional regulation body and multiple stakeholder regulation bodies.

Evaluation of air traffic control risk situation based ongame theory and set pair analysis

WAN Junqiang, ZHANG Min

2018, 28(11): 142-148. doi:11.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.023

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In order to effectively evaluate the operational risk in air traffic management, the determinants and uncertainties of the evaluation system were treated integrally and a risk assessment model based on SPA of game theory was built. First, according to the method of system engineering, 18 risk assessment indexes of the underlying operation were identified. Then the subjective weights of the indexes were determined by analytic hierarchy process(AHP), and their objective weights were calculated by entropy weight method, and then the comprehensive weights of the indexes were obtained by game theory comprehensive weight method. According to the model, the set pair potential analysis results of the indexes were calculated, and the risk situation of the system was judged. Then the dynamic development trend of the risk was obtained by calculating the partial connection number of each order of the connection number. The simulation results show that the proposed set pair analysis model is effective at assessing the air traffic control risk and analyzing the trend in development of air traffic management.

Spatial fuzzy comprehensive assessment of highway flood risk based on GIS

LI Mengmei, MU Fengyun, LIN Xiaosong, LONG Qiuyue, CUI Mengrui

2018, 28(11): 149-155. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.024

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An index system of highway flood risk assessment was established after 9 evaluation indexes were identified from considering the disaster environment and the disaster causing factors. Based on the optimum combination weighting method, weights of the indexes were calculated. On the basis of GIS technology and variable multi objective fuzzy optimization theory, a spatial fuzzy evaluation model was built for highway flood disaster risk. The effectiveness of this model was verified by applying it to Banan District of Chongqing which was taken as an example. The results show that using the optimal combination weighting method can avoid the one-sidedness of a single method and get more reasonable and realistic comprehensive weights, and that the assessment results obtained by using the model conform with the reality.

Application of grey multi-hierarchy comprehensive evaluationmethod in failure probability assessment of storage tanks

SONG Xiaomiao, YANG Jianfeng, CHEN Liangchao, WANG Yuqi

2018, 28(11): 156-161. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.025

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This article attempts to research the factors affecting the failure probabilities of the atmospheric oil storage tanks in China more scientifically. A multi-hierarchy gray comprehensive evaluation method was developed based on the AHP and gray comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the RBI technology, a model was built for assessing failure probabilities of the atmospheric oil storage tanks. On the basis of coefficient correction method, the evaluation index system was divided into three levels, the first grade target layer A,the second grade element layer B,and the third grade index layer C.The weights of the evaluation factors can be calculated by using AHP. The gray comprehensive evaluation method was applied to a practical case. The results gained from the trial application demonstrate that the covered risk problems caused by traditional scoring ways can be avoided by using the evaluation method developed by the authors, that at the same time, the model ranks the factors affecting the equipment correction coefficient.

Research on intelligent early-warning of crowded stampede accidents vulnerable areas in subway

WANG Qiquan

2018, 28(11): 162-167. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.026

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In order to effectively prevent subway crowding and stampede accidents, data on the recent subway stampede accidents were analyzed, areas vulnerable to crowding and stampede accidents were identified, and the inoculation, evolution and development stages of the stampede accident in subways were revealed. Effects of crowd wave, distortion of information transmission, and hedging caused by spatial obstruction were analyzed among others. A stage critical for preventing and controlling subway crowding and stampede accidents was identified. An intelligent warning system was developed for subway crowded trampling accidents. The research results show that the inoculation stage is critical for preventing and controlling the accidents, that the intelligent warning monitoring system can assess the warning level, show the risk level corresponding to a given people's status or density, and is helpful in controlling subway crowded stampede accidents.

Mutual information based prediction of level of collision incident in Yangtze river

CHEN Kejia, MAO Zhe, WU Bing, FAN Shen

2018, 28(11): 168-175. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.027

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In order to predict the level of ship collision dangers and evaluate the consequences of collisions, the mutual information was used to improve the traditional BN and a prediction model of ship collision risk grades was built. Firstly, the risk factors of ship collision danger grades were identified based on the historical data on ship collision accidents. Second, the qualitative part of the BN was established by the mutual information and conditional mutual information values calculated to determine the independence and independence of conditions between risk factors, and the dependencies between the factors were determined. According to data on the 516 accidents, a conditional probability table(CPT) was obtained to determine the quantitative part of BN. Finally, the feasibility and accuracy of the model were validated by using the data on the Yangtze River historical accidents. The result shows that the prediction accuracy obtained using model is up to 94%, which can well predict the ship collision risk level.

Research on evacuation risk quantization and classification for subway passengers based on Pathfinder

SUN Guilei, WANG Yaqi, ZHAO Xinyuan, WAN Zijie, LIU Qian, JI Xuewei

2018, 28(11): 176-181. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.028

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To control reasonably the number of passengers and avoid crowded stamped accidents, evacuation risk was classified into four levels according to evacuation time in the relevant standards. A simulation model was built using Pathfinder simulation software. And according to different subway carrying rates, evacuation process simulations were carried out. The numbers and the densities of evacuated passengers on the subway platform corresponding to the four risk levels were obtained, and the evacuation risk of the subway was quantified and classified. The functional relationships between the subway carrying rate and the crowd density on the subway platform under different risk levels were analyzed according to data on Beijing metro. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the evacuation risk level and both the crowd density on the platform and the carrying rate of the subway, and that when evacuation time is fixed, there is a quadratic polynomial relationships between the subway carrying rate and the crowd density.

Model for multi-tiered repositories emergency supplies reserves based on modularization

DONG Junfeng, XIAO Jiao, LIANG Changyong, WANG Binyou

2018, 28(11): 182-188. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.029

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In order to ensure the emergency supplies meet the needs of disaster-hit areas to the maximum extent and establish a more reasonable reserve strategy, factors such as the difference in emergency supplies demand of different disaster categories and levels,supplies modularization and the level of repository participating in the rescue were comprehensively considered and a multi-objective emergency supplies reserve model was built, with maximizing the degree of emergency supplies satisfaction and minimizing the costs of reserve and transportation as the objective functions. The model was solved by the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II and the dynamic neighbor table deletion hybrid optimization algorithm and analyzed by data simulation,so the types and optimum quantities of emergency supplies reserved in the repositories of each level were calculated. The results show that the hybrid optimization algorithm can effectively solve the multi-objective emergency supplies reserve model,and the emergency supplies reserve scheme can guarantee the rationality of the reserve.

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