Quantitative evaluation of resilience of metro engineering system based on Bayesian networks

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.11.016

Abstract

Abstract: To improve the safety and stability of metro construction projects, and to ensure efficient construction activities, this paper was aimed at studying and evaluating the capability of the metro engineering system to resist and adapt to risks, as well as to maintain normal productions. A concept of resilience of metro engineering system was introduced. Factors influencing the resilience were analyzed. BN was employed for studying the ability of the metro engineering system in resisting risks and quickly recovering. A resilience model representing the causal relationships between those components has been built with a BN. Then, data samples from survey results were exploited to learn the parameters of the network, before the network can be adjusted to quantitatively analyze the impacts of the components on the system resilience, so that important actions and objects to monitor were recommended. The results show that the resilience model of the metro engineering system can be used to accurately quantify the resilience of the metro engineering system, analyze effects of the factors on the resilience, and thus improve the construction management capability.

Key words: metro engineering system, risk, resilience, Bayesian network(BN), quantitative evaluation

CLC Number:

X913.4

CHEN Qun, HUANG Qian, CHEN Zhe, WANG Zhiyang. Quantitative evaluation of resilience of metro engineering system based on Bayesian networks[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(11): 98-103.

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