Cloud model for risk evaluation of coal mine intelligent projects and its application

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.1680

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to solve the problems of difficulty in quantifying the indicators and difficulty in taking into account randomness and fuzziness in the evaluation process of the risk of the coal mine intelligentization project, the cloud model theory was adopted to carry out a quantitative and comprehensive evaluation of the system. First of all, based on the coal mine informationization system construction project, a multi-dimensional analysis was carried out to establish a multi-indicator and multi-dimensional evaluation system of the project risk. Then, the combination of hierarchical analysis (AHP) method and criteria importance though intercrieria correlation (CRITIC) method was used to assign weights, determine the weight matrix of the indicators, and the cloud model was used to realize the conversion between the quantitative and qualitative indicators, to complete the evaluation of the risk of the coal mine intelligence project, and to put forward the targeted policy according to the evaluation results. The cloud model was used to realize the quantitative and qualitative conversion of indicators, complete the risk evaluation of the coal mine intelligentization project, and put forward targeted policies based on the evaluation results to minimize the existing risks of the project. Finally, taking a coal mine of National Energy Group as an example, the risk evaluation of the construction and implementation process of coal mine intelligentization project was carried out. The results show that the cloud model can realize the quantitative evaluation of project risks, and the results of risk evaluation coincide with the actual situation on the site; the results of risk evaluation can help to solve the hidden risks on the site and improve the ability of risk control.

Key words: intelligent coal mining, project risk evaluate, cloud model, weights, evaluation level

CLC Number:

X913.4安全系统工程

LI Changming, ZHAO Kaigong, ZHANG Xiaolei, WANG Ruidi, LI Yansu. Cloud model for risk evaluation of coal mine intelligent projects and its application[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(5): 168-174.

Figures/Tables 7

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指标	AHP分析结果		CRITIC分析结果			组合权重
指标	特征向量	权重	变异性	冲突性	权重	组合权重
需求T₁	0.557 4	0.061 2	0.427	1.029	0.071 4	0.074
技术T₂	0.842 2	0.090 8	0.452	0.758	0.081 8	0.127
复杂性和界面T₃	0.346 2	0.037 3	0.437	1.068	0.054 15	0.034
绩效与可靠性T₄	0.423 9	0.041 4	0.423	0.657	0.039 24	0.028
质量T₅	0.646 4	0.063 3	0.448	0.748	0.061 03	0.066
供应商E₁	0.773 3	0.077 9	0.443	1.037	0.062 86	0.083
管理规定E₂	0.595 6	0.058	0.441	0.914	0.037 82	0.037
市场E₃	0.620 7	0.067 5	0.444	0.558	0.062 37	0.072
客户E₄	0.493 3	0.049 8	0.455	0.605	0.062 11	0.053
气候E₅	0.827 3	0.088 6	0.468	0.887	0.079 03	0.119
项目依赖关系O₁	0.496 4	0.042 3	0.446	0.758	0.041 28	0.03
资源O₂	0.504 1	0.050 6	0.42	0.933	0.056 72	0.049
资金O₃	0.480 7	0.048 2	0.444	0.701	0.048 7	0.04
有限度O₄	0.376 3	0.035 6	0.442	0.469	0.044 35	0.027
估算M₁	0.456 2	0.046 1	0.429	0.468	0.047 66	0.037
计划编制M₂	0.361 8	0.036 4	0.428	0.523	0.039 96	0.025
控制M₃	0.525 1	0.050 9	0.433	0.543	0.041 23	0.036
沟通M₄	0.547 1	0.054 3	0.442	1.598	0.068 26	0.063

指标/云相似度	优	良	中	较差	差
需求T₁	0.500	0.309	0.191	0.309	0.184
技术T₂	0.382	0.236	0.146	0.236	0.209
复杂性和界面T₃	0.390	0.447	0.276	0.447	0.227
绩效与可靠性T₄	0.382	0.236	0.146	0.236	0.209
质量T₅	0.333	0.206	0.127	0.206	0.222
供应商E₁	0.495	0.382	0.236	0.382	0.223
管理规定E₂	0.539	0.333	0.206	0.333	0.231
市场E₃	0.567	0.350	0.217	0.319	0.162
客户E₄	0.333	0.206	0.127	0.206	0.222
气候E₅	0.539	0.333	0.206	0.333	0.231
项目依赖关系O₁	0.567	0.350	0.217	0.319	0.162
资源O₂	0.539	0.333	0.206	0.333	0.231
资金O₃	0.255	0.539	0.333	0.552	0.255
有限度O₄	0.333	0.206	0.127	0.206	0.222
估算M₁	0.539	0.333	0.206	0.333	0.231
计划编制M₂	0.447	0.276	0.171	0.276	0.207
控制M₃	0.333	0.206	0.127	0.206	0.222
沟通M₄	0.382	0.236	0.146	0.236	0.209

时间/等级	优	良	中	较差	差
2019年9月	0.445 211	0.303 829	0.187 781	0.301 1	0.213 721
2020年1月	0.082 142	0.114 38	0.187 64	0.514 3	0.101 538