核电站土建施工风险度量模型构建与分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.05.015

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (5): 81-86.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.05.015

核电站土建施工风险度量模型构建与分析

李杰林讲师, 刘伟杰, 刘汉文

中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙 410083

收稿日期:2017-02-08 修回日期:2017-04-29 出版日期:2017-05-20 发布日期:2020-10-30
作者简介:李杰林 (1982—),男,湖南宁远人,博士,讲师,主要从事采矿工程、冻融岩石力学、安全评价等方面的科研工作。E-mail:lijielin@163.com。刘伟杰 (1992—),男,湖南长沙人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为施工安全评价。E-mail:lwjcsu92@163.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学青年基金资助(41502327)。

Building and analyzing model for measuring risk in nuclear power plant construction

LI Jielin, LIU Weijie, LIU Hanwen

School of Resources & Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha Hunan 410083, China

Received:2017-02-08 Revised:2017-04-29 Online:2017-05-20 Published:2020-10-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为科学合理地评价核电站土建施工项目的安全状况,查找施工过程中的安全隐患,根据4M因素理论,以定量指标为主,定性指标为辅,引入突变理论和模糊综合评价法,建立核电站土建施工风险度量评价体系以及安全状况隶属函数等级表。在此基础上,基于Analytica软件构建核电站土建施工项目风险度量模型;将模型应用于某核电站的1—4号安全厂房及核岛工程的土建施工项目风险度量评价中。结果表明,模型评价结果与实际情况相符合,通过模型可得到各厂房土建施工的安全级别,并准确判断施工过程中的风险类别,进而计算出量化值,从而有针对性地提出对策。

关键词: Analytica软件, 突变理论, 4M因素理论, 风险度量模型, 核电站土建施工

Abstract: For the sake of evaluating the safety status of engineering construction of nuclear power station scientifically and rationally and finding potential safety hazard in the construction process, a risk measurement and evaluation system of nuclear power plant construction and a membership function grade table of nuclear power station construction safety condition were established. A risk measurement model was built for engineering construction of nuclear power plant based on Analytica software. The model was applied to the risk assessment of the engineering construction project of 1-4 safety building and nuclear island project of a certain nuclear power plant. The results show that the evaluation results obtained by using the conform with the actual situation, and the model can be used to judge the risk category and calculate the quantitative value of risk category, then make targeted countermeasures.

Key words: analytica software, catastrophe theory, 4 M factors theory, risk measurement model, nuclear power station construction

中图分类号:

X948

李杰林, 刘伟杰, 刘汉文. 核电站土建施工风险度量模型构建与分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2017, 27(5): 81-86.

LI Jielin, LIU Weijie, LIU Hanwen. Building and analyzing model for measuring risk in nuclear power plant construction[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(5): 81-86.

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核电站土建施工风险度量模型构建与分析

Building and analyzing model for measuring risk in nuclear power plant construction

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