基于声发射多参数时间序列的瓦斯突出预测

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.05.022

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (5): 129-134.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.05.022

基于声发射多参数时间序列的瓦斯突出预测

王雨虹^1,2 副教授, 刘璐璐¹, 付华¹ 教授, 徐耀松¹ 副教授

1 辽宁工程技术大学电气与控制工程学院,辽宁葫芦岛 125000;
2 辽宁工程技术大学安全科学与工程学院,辽宁阜新 123000

收稿日期:2018-01-20 修回日期:2018-03-26 出版日期:2018-05-28 发布日期:2020-11-25
作者简介:王雨虹(1979—),女,辽宁阜新人,博士研究生,副教授,硕士生导师,主要从事煤矿安全监测监控方面的研究工作。E-mail:yuhong0804001@126.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(71771111,61601212);辽宁省教育厅项目(LJYL014)。

Research on acoustic emission multi-parameter time series based prediction of gas outburst

WANG Yuhong^1,2, LIU Lulu¹, FU Hua¹, XU Yaosong¹

1 College of Electrical and Control Engineering,Liaoning Technical University,Huludao Liaoning 125000,China;
2 College of Safety Science and Engineering,Liaoning Technical University,Fuxin Liaoning 123000,China

Received:2018-01-20 Revised:2018-03-26 Online:2018-05-28 Published:2020-11-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为准确预测煤与瓦斯突出,提出基于煤岩体破裂声发射(AE)多参数时间序列的煤与瓦斯突出预测方法。选取煤岩体声发射事件率、能率和b值等作为观测参量,建立小世界回声状态网络(SW-ESN)预测模型,并对煤岩体声发射多参数时间序列进行拟合与预测;运用突变理论与模糊数学结合的燕尾型突变级数法对预测的声发射序列建立煤与瓦斯突出预测模型。实例应用表明:SW-ESN对声发射时间序列的预测精度高,对突出情况的预测结果与现场实际基本符合,验证了本文提出的方法对煤与瓦斯突出预测的可行性和有效性。

关键词: 煤与瓦斯突出, 小世界回声状态网络(SW-ESN), 声发射(AE), 突变理论, 预测

Abstract: In order to accurately predict coal and gas outbursts,a method was worked out for coal and gas outburst prediction based on multi-parameter time series of AE of coal rock mass fracture was proposed.The AE event rate,energy rate,and b value of coal and rock mass were selected as observation parameters,a SW-ESN prediction model was built,and used to fit and predict the multi-parameter time series of AE in coal and rock masses.The swallowtail type mutation series method based on combination of mutation theory and fuzzy mathematics was used to built coal and gas outburst prediction models for the predicted AE sequences.The examples show that the SW-ESN had high prediction accuracy for AE time series,and the predicted results for outstanding situations are basically in accordance with the actual conditions on the site,and that the proposed method has certain validity and feasibility in predicting coal and gas outbursts.

Key words: coal and gas outburst, small world echo state network(SW-ESN), acoustic emission(AE), catastrophe theory, prediction

中图分类号:

X936

王雨虹, 刘璐璐, 付华, 徐耀松. 基于声发射多参数时间序列的瓦斯突出预测[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(5): 129-134.

WANG Yuhong, LIU Lulu, FU Hua, XU Yaosong. Research on acoustic emission multi-parameter time series based prediction of gas outburst[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(5): 129-134.

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基于声发射多参数时间序列的瓦斯突出预测

Research on acoustic emission multi-parameter time series based prediction of gas outburst

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