危化品储运火灾爆炸事故多因素耦合动力学关系

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.06.009

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (6): 49-54.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.06.009

危化品储运火灾爆炸事故多因素耦合动力学关系

陈伟珂教授, 张欣

天津理工大学管理学院,天津 300384

收稿日期:2017-03-16 修回日期:2017-05-14 发布日期:2020-10-16
作者简介:陈伟珂 (1961—),女,浙江宁波人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事公共安全及风险管理的科研及教学工作。E-mail: chenweike7@163.com。张欣 (1993—),男,山东淄博人,硕士研究生,研究方向为安全管理工程和风险管理。E-mail:907918994@qq.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(71173152);天津市科技计划项目(15ZCZDSF00400)。

Dynamic relationship between multi coupling risk factors of hazardous chemical storage and transportation fire and explosion accidents

CHEN Weike, ZHANG Xin

Department of Management, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China

Received:2017-03-16 Revised:2017-05-14 Published:2020-10-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 导致危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故的因素众多,揭示其相互间的作用关系是切断事故链实施靶向干预的关键环节。首先,采用事故树和频度统计法遴选出致险因素,通过解释结构模型(ISM)建立致险因素间的递阶层次关系,并基于耦合理论对致险因素进行耦合作用的矢量分析,推导出危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故因果关系图;然后,根据系统动力学(SD)理论,建立危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故多因素耦合下的动力学模型。结果表明:该模型不仅能反映致险因素间的耦合作用关系,还可以对各变量不安全耦合量的累积过程进行可视化描述,为后续各致险因素对危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故作用机理的研究奠定基础。

关键词: 危险化学品储运, 火灾爆炸事故, 致险因素, 解释结构模型(ISM), 耦合理论, 系统动力学(SD)

Abstract: There are many factors leading to hazardous chemical storage and transportation fire and explosion accidents,revealing the relationship between each other is the key link to cut off the accident chain and implement targeted intervention.Hierarchical relationships between the risk factors were established by ISM. A vector analysis of the risk factors was carried out based on the coupling theory to derive a causal map for hazardous chemical storage and transportation fire and explosion accidents. According to the theory of system dynamics, a dynamic model was built for hazardous chemical storage and transportation fire and explosion accidents multi risk factors coupling. The model not only reflects the coupling relationships between the risk factors, but also describes the cumulative process of the unsafe coupling amount of each variable, which lays a foundation for research on the mechanism, by which a given risk factor influences a hazardous chemical storage and transportation fire explosion accident.

Key words: hazardous chemicals storage and transportation, fire and explosion accident, risk factors, interpretative structure model(ISM), coupling theory, system dynamics(SD)

中图分类号:

X937

陈伟珂, 张欣. 危化品储运火灾爆炸事故多因素耦合动力学关系[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2017, 27(6): 49-54.

CHEN Weike, ZHANG Xin. Dynamic relationship between multi coupling risk factors of hazardous chemical storage and transportation fire and explosion accidents[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(6): 49-54.

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危化品储运火灾爆炸事故多因素耦合动力学关系

Dynamic relationship between multi coupling risk factors of hazardous chemical storage and transportation fire and explosion accidents

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