基于MFM初始事件发生频率计算方法

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.020

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 118-123.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.020

基于MFM初始事件发生频率计算方法

胡馨升¹, 吴宗之¹ 研究员, 张喻², 王如君^3,4 教授级高工, 多英全^3,4 教授级高工

1 中国矿业大学(北京) 资源与安全工程学院,北京 100083
2 丹麦技术大学化工与生化工程学院,丹麦灵比 2800
3 中国安全生产科学研究院危险化学品安全技术研究所,北京 100012
4 国家安全生产监督管理总局重大危险源监控和事故应急技术重点实验室,北京 100012

收稿日期:2017-11-15 出版日期:2018-01-28 发布日期:2020-09-28
作者简介:胡馨升 (1989—),女,黑龙江大庆人,博士研究生,研究方向为危险化学品风险评价和安全管理。E-mail:huxinsheng1989@126.com。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0801500)。

Calculation method of initiating event frequency based on multilevel flow modeling

HU Xinsheng¹, WU Zongzhi¹, ZHANG Yu², WANG Rujun^3,4, DUO Yingquan^3,4

1 College of Resources and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
2 College of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Kg.s Lyngby 2800, Denmark
3 Institute of Safety Technology for Hazardous Chemicals, China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China
4 Key Laboratory of Major Hazard Control and Accident Emergency Technology, State Administration of Work Safety, Beijing 100012, China

Received:2017-11-15 Online:2018-01-28 Published:2020-09-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了解决传统故障树分析方法中,依赖参与人员经验导致评价结果相对主观的问题,利用多级流模型(MFM)模拟实际流程,改进化工过程定量风险评价(QRA)初始事件发生频率的计算方法。首先,应用MFM对化工过程建模,并根据MFMSuite软件推理出的故障逻辑原因树建立故障树,按照事件发生的逻辑顺序找出故障原因;然后,计算顶上事件的发生频率,即为该过程初始事件的发生频率;最后,以氰化氢生产流程中粗产品的冷却过程作为应用实例。研究表明:针对热交换工艺过程,MFM计算方法运用原因树推演故障树,与传统方法相比,结果更为客观。

关键词: 化工过程, 定量风险评价(QRA), 多级流模型(MFM), 初始事件, 故障树分析

Abstract: Traditional fault tree analysis relies on the experience of the analysis, which makes the assessment results relatively subjective. In order to solve this problem, MFM is used to simulate the actual flow to improve the calculation method of initiating event frequency in chemical process QRA. Firstly, the chemical process is modeled by MFM platform, and then a fault tree is established according to the causal paths reasoning through the MFMSuite software. Finally, the frequency of the top event is calculated according to the logical sequence of the events and the frequency of the initiating event is determined. The method is applied to a heat exchange step in the production process of hydrogen cyanide. The research shows that this method can use the causal paths to deduce the fault tree for the heat exchange process, and that compared with the traditional methods, the result obtained by using the method developed by the authors is more objective.

Key words: chemical processes, quantitative risk assessment(QRA), multilevel flow modeling (MFM), initiating event, fault tree analysis

中图分类号:

X928.03

胡馨升, 吴宗之, 张喻, 王如君, 多英全. 基于MFM初始事件发生频率计算方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(1): 118-123.

HU Xinsheng, WU Zongzhi, ZHANG Yu, WANG Rujun, DUO Yingquan. Calculation method of initiating event frequency based on multilevel flow modeling[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(1): 118-123.

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基于MFM初始事件发生频率计算方法

Calculation method of initiating event frequency based on multilevel flow modeling

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