关键词: 道路安全, 极限工况, 事故损伤度预测, 正面碰撞, 速度变化

Abstract: To reduce the crash injury severity of vehicle-vehicle crash to the maximum extent,the frontal crash under extreme conditions was taken as the research object.The extreme conditions mean there is no time for the drivers to avoid crashes.The evaluation indexes of predicting crash injury severity were analyzed.Then the forward reasoning method was used to build predictive models for velocity change ΔV before and after the full-overlapping and oblique crash.The model were used to analyze the influences of different factors on the velocity change ΔV.After that,the influence relationships were correlated with the standard value of crash injury severity to predict the injury severity.Finally,an example was used to verify the proposed prediction method of crash injury severity.The analysis results show that with a given pre-crash relative velocity and a given pre-crash angle between the two vehicles,the crash injury severity has a significant negative correlation withthe mass ratio of two vehicles,with a given mass ratio and a given pre-crash angle,the crash injury severityhas a significant positive correlation with the pre-crash relative velocity,that under the extreme conditions,the injury severity caused by a full-overlapping crash is greater than that by a oblique crash,and that before a crash the drivers can not avoid,they should control the vehicles' pre-crash velocities and pre-crash angle to the best of their abilities.

Key words: road safety, extreme condition, accident injury prediction, frontal crash, velocity change