关键词: 应急资源调度, 累积前景理论(CPT), 区间数, 动态决策, 时间参照点, 连通可靠性

Abstract: In order to reduce the loss railway accidents may cause and improve the efficiency of emergency resources dispatching, after taking optimal attribute values and expected attribute values as external reference points and internal reference points respectively and dividing resources dispatching stages to add time reference points, a decision model for emergency resources dispatching schemes that regarded the total loss and delay time of schemes as decision attributes was built based on CPT. According to the model, an emergency resources dispatching scheme with the maximum prospect value was obtained, and the sensitivities of preference coefficients of decision attributes and reference points were analyzed. The results show that the decision model can not only make up for the deficiency of expected utility theory, but also make the decision process more practical,and that the optimal scheme obtained by the model can reduce the psychological perception gap the accident loss brought to the decision makers.

Key words: emergency resource scheduling, cumulative prospect theory(CPT), interval number, dynamic decision-making, time reference point, connectivity reliability