基于前景理论和区间数的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评价

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.06.016

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (6): 91-96.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.06.016

基于前景理论和区间数的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评价

皮子坤^1,2,3, 贾宝山^2,3 教授, 贾廷贵^2,3, 李宗翔^2,3 教授

1 湖南工学院安全与环境工程学院,湖南衡阳 421002
2 辽宁工程技术大学安全科学与工程学院,辽宁阜新 123000
3 矿山热动力灾害与防治教育部重点实验室,辽宁阜新 123000

收稿日期:2017-02-18 修回日期:2017-05-11 发布日期:2020-10-16
作者简介:皮子坤 (1987—)男,湖南益阳人,博士,主要从事煤矿瓦斯灾害防治理论及技术方面的研究工作。E-mail:496492248@qq.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(51074086);国家“十二五”基础研究重大专项(2011ZX05041-003)。

Assessment of risk of gas explosion in coal mine based on prospect theory and interval number

PI Zikun^1,2,3, JIA Baoshan^2,3, JIA Tinggui^2,3, LI Zongxiang^2,3

1 School of Safety and Environmental Engineering, Hunan Institute of Technology, Hengyang Hunan 421002,China
2 School of Safety Science and Engineering, Liaoning Technical University, FuxinLiaoning 123000, China
3 Key Laboratory of Mine Thermodynamic Disaster & Control of Ministry of Education, Fuxin Liaoning 123000, China

Received:2017-02-18 Revised:2017-05-11 Published:2020-10-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为评估煤矿瓦斯爆炸的灾害风险,结合前景理论与模糊综合评价理论,建立风险评价模型。根据煤矿瓦斯爆炸的形成条件和事故致因理论,建立风险评价体系;运用前景理论,以统计推断计算的区间数期望值为参考点,确定各指标属性值为区间数的决策权重,结合模糊综合评价理论与区间数排序原理,建立基于区间数的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险模糊综合评价模型;运用该模型对某地3座煤矿进行风险评估,风险评价结果与煤矿的生产实际情况一致。结果表明:该评价方法克服了人的有限理性行为对决策时的主观期望效用的影响,使评价结果更加客观、科学。

关键词: 前景理论, 瓦斯爆炸, 区间数, 风险评估, 区间数排序

Abstract: In order to evaluate disaster risk of gas explosion in coal mine, a risk evaluation model was built on the basis of both the prospect theory and the fuzzy evaluation theory. And an evaluation system was also established based on the formation conditions of coal mine gas explosion and accident-causing theory. Having the aid of the prospect theory, the attribute values were determined as the weights of each interval number, by using the expectancy value of interval number as the reference point. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was built for the risk of gas explosion in coal mine based on the interval numbers on the basis of both the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory and the ranking interval numbers principle. Finally, risk evaluations were performed for three coal mines by applying the model. The assessment result conforms with the real situation. The results show that the proposed evaluation method overcome the limited rational behavior of man's influence on the decisions of subjective expected utility, the evaluation results was more objective and scientific.

Key words: prospect theory, gas explosion, interval number, risk assessment, interval number sequence

中图分类号:

X932

皮子坤, 贾宝山, 贾廷贵, 李宗翔. 基于前景理论和区间数的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2017, 27(6): 91-96.

PI Zikun, JIA Baoshan, JIA Tinggui, LI Zongxiang. Assessment of risk of gas explosion in coal mine based on prospect theory and interval number[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(6): 91-96.

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基于前景理论和区间数的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评价

Assessment of risk of gas explosion in coal mine based on prospect theory and interval number

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