FPSO模块吊装风险分析方法及应用研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.020

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (12): 123-128.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.12.020

FPSO模块吊装风险分析方法及应用研究

韩放^1,2, 余建星^1,2 教授, 陈海成^1,2, 吴朝晖³, 雷云^1,2, 刘俊雄^1,2

1 天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津 300072;
2 天津大学天津市港口与海洋工程重点实验室,天津 300072;
3 海洋石油工程股份有限公司,天津 300451

收稿日期:2019-09-19 修回日期:2019-11-20 出版日期:2019-12-28 发布日期:2020-11-24
作者简介:韩放 (1997—),男,河北唐山人,硕士研究生,研究方向为海洋工程安装作业风险评估等方面。E-mail:2935055312@qq.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年基金资助(51609169);国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(51879189);国家科技重大专项经费资助(2016ZX05028005-004);国家科技重大专项经费资助(2016ZX05057020)。

Risk analysis method of FPSO module hoisting and its application

HAN Fang^1,2, YU Jianxing^1,2, CHEN Haicheng^1,2, WU Zhaohui³, LEI Yun^1,2, LIU Junxiong^1,2

1 State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;
2 Tianjin Key Laboratory of Port and Ocean Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;
3 Offshore Petroleum Engineering Co., Ltd., Tianjin 300451, China

Received:2019-09-19 Revised:2019-11-20 Online:2019-12-28 Published:2020-11-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提高海上浮式生产储油卸油设备(FPSO)模块吊装作业的安全性,利用专家评判和事故树分析法(FTA)对作业流程进行风险分析。首先,通过统计分析辨识出尽可能多的基本事件,构建事故树模型;其次,引入区间二元语义理论来描述不确定性和模糊性的专家评判观点,同时考虑专家权重和观点间的相似程度2个方面,聚合得到综合性的群体观点;然后,通过Fussell-Vesely重要度排序,辨识出风险等级较高的事件;最后,对南海某油田的FPSO模块吊装过程进行风险分析。结果表明:该作业流程风险评价等级处于中等和高等之间,设备问题是主要的高风险事件,与事故统计数据一致,验证了该风险分析方法的合理性。

关键词: 海上浮式生产储油卸油设备(FPSO), 事故树分析法(FTA), 模块吊装, 区间二元语义, 群体观点聚合, 风险分析

Abstract: In order to improve operation safety of FPSO module hoisting, risk analysis of operation process is carried out by using expert evaluation and FTA. Firstly, basic events were identified as many as possible based on statistical analysis, and a fault tree model was constructed. Secondly, interval 2-tuple theory was introduced to describe uncertain and fuzzy evaluation opinions of experts, and general opinions were aggregated after considering expert weights and similarity between their opinions. Then, high-risk events were identified according to Fussell-Vesely ranking of importance. Finally, with an oil field in South China Sea was as an example, risk analysis of its FPSO module hoisting project was carried out. The results show that its operation process risk ranks between medium and high, and equipment problem proves to be a major high-risk event, which are all consistent with statistical data of accidents, thus verifying rationality of this risk analysis method.

Key words: floating production storage and offloading(FPSO), fault tree analysis (FTA), module hoisting, interval 2-tuple, group view aggregation, risk analysis

中图分类号:

X937

韩放, 余建星, 陈海成, 吴朝晖, 雷云, 刘俊雄. FPSO模块吊装风险分析方法及应用研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(12): 123-128.

HAN Fang, YU Jianxing, CHEN Haicheng, WU Zhaohui, LEI Yun, LIU Junxiong. Risk analysis method of FPSO module hoisting and its application[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(12): 123-128.

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FPSO模块吊装风险分析方法及应用研究

Risk analysis method of FPSO module hoisting and its application

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