山区暴雨-农业灾害链复杂网络静态风险分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.03.025

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (3): 163-170.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.03.025

山区暴雨-农业灾害链复杂网络静态风险分析

罗军华¹, 林孝松¹ 教授, 牟凤云¹ 教授, 李宏伟², 张莉¹

1.重庆交通大学建筑与城市规划学院,重庆 400074;
2.重庆市奉节县气象局,重庆 404600

收稿日期:2019-12-11 修回日期:2020-02-13 出版日期:2020-03-28 发布日期:2021-01-26
作者简介:罗军华(1995—),男,贵州铜仁人,硕士研究生,研究方向为自然灾害风险评估与模拟预测。E-mail:674914258@qq.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(41601564);国家自然科学基金校内培育项目(2018PY15);重庆市基础研究与前沿探索项目(cstc2018jcyjAX0156);重庆市自然科学基金资助(cstc2019jcyjmsxm1642)。

Static risk analysis on rainstorm-agricultural disaster chain in mountainous areas based on complex network

LUO Junhua¹, LIN Xiaosong¹, MU Fengyun¹, LI Hongwei², ZHANG Li¹

1. College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China;
2. Meteorological Bureau of Fengjie Country, Chongqing 404600, China

Received:2019-12-11 Revised:2020-02-13 Online:2020-03-28 Published:2021-01-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为指导山区暴雨作用下农业经济受损的防治工作,利用复杂网络理论对暴雨-农业灾害链进行静态风险分析。山区暴雨-农业灾害的风险演化发展过程具有链式规律,基于农业生产、农业生态环境及农作物本身等基本因素确定39个灾害事件,构建以灾害事件为节点,事件发展联系为连接边的山区暴雨-农业灾害复杂网络模型;利用节点出入度及聚类系数对灾害演化过程进行风险分析,确定网络中导致农业经济受损的关键节点,并提出部分针对性的断链措施与控链建议;基于最短路径方法对导致农业经济受损的6种山区暴雨次生灾害链进行风险识别。结果表明:网络整体聚类系数为0.04,集团化程度不高,大部分风险事件之间仅存在明显的“单节点-单节点”单纯传递关系,且灾害网络呈现出明显的小世界网络特征。

关键词: 山区暴雨, 农业灾害链, 复杂网络, 模型构建, 风险分析

Abstract: In order to provide guidance for prevention and control of agricultural economic damage in condition of mountainous rainstorm, static risk analysis of rainstorm-agricultural disaster chain is conducted by using complex network theory. Firstly, considering that risk evolution process of storm-agricultural disasters in mountainous areas has a chain law, 39 disaster events were identified based on basic factors like agricultural production, agro-ecological environment and crop itself, and a complex network model was developed with disaster events as nodes and event development connection as connecting edge. Then, node access and clustering coefficients were used to analyze risk evolution process and to identify key nodes in network that caused damage to agricultural economy, and some chain-breaking measures and chain control recommendations were proposed. Finally, risks of six types of secondary disaster chains that caused agricultural economic damage were identified by using the shortest path method. The results show that the overall clustering coefficient is 0.04 with low degree of grouping. There is only a clear "single node-single node" simple transfer relationship between most risk events, and disaster network shows obvious characteristics of small world networks.

Key words: mountainous rainstorm, agricultural disaster chain, complex network, model building, risk analysis

中图分类号:

X915.5

罗军华, 林孝松, 牟凤云, 李宏伟, 张莉. 山区暴雨-农业灾害链复杂网络静态风险分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(3): 163-170.

LUO Junhua, LIN Xiaosong, MU Fengyun, LI Hongwei, ZHANG Li. Static risk analysis on rainstorm-agricultural disaster chain in mountainous areas based on complex network[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(3): 163-170.

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山区暴雨-农业灾害链复杂网络静态风险分析

Static risk analysis on rainstorm-agricultural disaster chain in mountainous areas based on complex network

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