老龄城镇油气管道失效风险评价方法

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.02.015

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 93-98.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.02.015

老龄城镇油气管道失效风险评价方法

李新宏副教授, 韩子月, 卢才武教授, 赵江平副教授

西安建筑科技大学资源工程学院, 陕西西安 710055

收稿日期:2019-12-08 修回日期:2020-02-06 出版日期:2020-02-28 发布日期:2021-01-25
作者简介:李新宏(1991—),男,甘肃镇原人,博士,副教授,主要从事油气安全工程、安全信息化技术、风险分析与控制方面的研究。Email:safety_lxh@163.com。
基金资助:
资助项目:陕西省社科界重大理论与现实问题研究项目(2020Z188);2020年度陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目;国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0802305)。

Research on failure risk evaluation methodology of aging urban oil and gas pipeline

LI Xinhong, HAN Ziyue, LU Caiwu, ZHAO Jiangping

School of Resource Engineering, Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi'an Shaanxi 710055, China

Received:2019-12-08 Revised:2020-02-06 Online:2020-02-28 Published:2021-01-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为揭示老龄城镇油气管道失效诱因相互影响关系,评估管道综合风险,提出一种基于模糊决策试验与评价实验室(DEMATEL)方法的老龄城镇油气管道失效风险评价方法。首先通过系统识别失效诱因,建立老龄城镇油气管道风险评价指标体系;然后基于模糊DEMATEL方法确定管道失效诱因关联路径,分析失效风险间的相互作用关系;最后结合风险评价指标初始状态信息和权重,确定老龄城镇油气管道的综合风险值,并据此提出相应的管控措施。研究表明:该方法能够识别老龄城镇油气管道失效诱因之间的复杂影响关系;公众教育的缺失是造成管道事故的主要风险诱因,完善管道裂纹检测,加强腐蚀防控,可有效降低老龄城镇油气管道的潜在运行风险。

关键词: 老龄城镇油气管道, 决策试验与评价实验室(DEMATEL), 失效, 指标体系, 风险评价

Abstract: In order to reveal mutual relations between causes of aging urban oil and gas pipeline failure and evaluate comprehensive risk of pipelines, a failure risk evaluation methodology based on fuzzy DEMATEL method was proposed. Firstly, an index-based risk evaluation system was established through identifying failure causes. Secondly, correlation paths of these causes were determined based on fuzzy DEMATEL method, and interaction between risks was analyzed. Finally, in view of initial metrix and weights of risk evaluation indexes, comprehensive risk value of aging urban oil and gas pipelines was defined, and corresponding measures for risk reduction were put forward. The research shows that the proposed methodology can identify complex relations between failure causes of aging urban oil and gas pipelines. Among all factors, lack of public education is a major risk trigger for pipeline accidents. Nevertheless, potential risks of them could be effectively reduced by improving crack detection and enhancing control of corrosion.

Key words: aging urban oil and gas pipeline, decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), failure, index-based system, risk evaluation

中图分类号:

X913.4

李新宏, 韩子月, 卢才武, 赵江平. 老龄城镇油气管道失效风险评价方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(2): 93-98.

LI Xinhong, HAN Ziyue, LU Caiwu, ZHAO Jiangping. Research on failure risk evaluation methodology of aging urban oil and gas pipeline[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(2): 93-98.

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老龄城镇油气管道失效风险评价方法

Research on failure risk evaluation methodology of aging urban oil and gas pipeline

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