面向可持续发展的重大灾害应急资源保障能力评价与实证

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.04.0991

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为突破重大灾害下应急资源存在需求缺口大、保障不充分、供应不及时等引发的不可持续问题,针对传统评价指标未涉及社会和环境持续发展因素,首先,利用三重底线可持续发展理论和文献挖掘法,基于应急资源保障经济能力支撑、应急资源保障社会能力支撑、应急资源保障环境能力支撑3个方面,构建综合评价指标体系;然后,通过专家评价修正原有指标,确定最终选定指标;最后,运用灰色关联分析法构建面向可持续发展的重大灾害应急资源保障能力评价模型,并以河南省为例开展应用,验证模型的科学性和有效性。研究结果表明:在综合考虑经济、社会、环境各方面因素情况下,社会支撑力关联度为0.933 90,对应急资源保障能力影响最大。此外,物流业固定资产投资额、社会组织单位数、医疗卫生机构床位数、地区生产总值等指标排名前列,是推动河南应急资源保障的关键影响因素。

关键词: 可持续发展, 重大灾害, 应急资源保障能力, 三重底线, 灰色关联分析

Abstract:

To address the unsustainable problems arising from significant demand gaps, inadequate support, and delayed supply of emergency resources in major disasters, and to tackle the limitation of traditional evaluation indicators that overlook social and environmental sustainability, this study was conducted. Firstly, based on the triple bottom line theory of sustainable development and literature mining method, a comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed from three dimensions: economic support capacity, social support capacity, and environmental support capacity for emergency resource support. Then, the original indicators were revised through expert evaluation to determine the final selected indicators. Finally, the grey relational analysis method was applied to construct an evaluation model for emergency resource support capacity in major disasters oriented towards sustainable development. Taking Henan Province as an example, the model was applied to verify its scientificity and effectiveness. The research shows that, when considering various factors such as economy, society, and environment, the correlation degree of social support is 0.933 90, having the strongest impact on emergency resource support capacity. In addition, indicators such as fixed assets investment in the logistics industry, the number of social organization units, the number of hospital beds in medical and health institutions, and regional GDP rank among the top, making them key influencing factors driving emergency resource support in Henan Province.

Key words: sustainable development, major disasters, emergency resource support capability, triple bottom line, grey relational analysis

中图分类号:

X913.4安全系统工程

赵晨阳. 面向可持续发展的重大灾害应急资源保障能力评价与实证[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2026, 36(4): 220-227.

Zhao Chenyang. Evaluation and empirical research on support capability of emergency resources for major disasters oriented to sustainable development[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(4): 220-227.

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专家评价指标		专家1	专家2	专家3	专家4	专家5	专家6	专家7	专家8
应急资源经济支撑力	地区生产总值	√	√	√	×	√	√	√	×
	应急物资储备支出	×	√	√	√	×	√	√	√
	物流业固定资产投资额	√	√	√	√	√	×	√	×
	城乡居民人均可支配收入	√	√	×	×	×	×	√	×
应急资源社会支撑力	应急物流人员数量	√	√	√	√	√	√	√	√
	医疗卫生机构床位数	√	√	×	√	√	×	√	√
	交通运输一般公共预算支出	×	×	√	×	×	√	×	√
应急资源环境支撑能力	新能源汽车保有量	√	×	√	√	√	√	√	×
	物流业碳排放量	√	√	√	×	√	√	×	√
	物流业绿色技术水平	√	√	√	√	√	√	×	√

名称	2018年	2019年	2020年	2021年	2022年	2023年
N₀	1.000 0	1.129 4	1.227 1	1.371 3	1.437 9	1.427 1
N₁	1.000 0	1.075 7	1.086 6	1.162 9	1.165 9	1.184 2
N₂	1.000 0	0.989 6	1.499 4	0.858 2	0.883 9	0.893 3
N₃	1.000 0	1.048 0	1.224 1	1.265 7	1.404 9	1.775 8
N₄	1.000 0	1.048 3	1.071 2	1.000 0	0.9211	0.913 5
N₅	1.000 0	1.051 9	1.096 5	1.185 4	1.2362	1.277 6
N₆	1.000 0	1.092 9	1.176 3	1.239 6	1.2590	1.244 5
N₇	1.000 0	1.388 9	2.001 4	3.636 2	5.8321	2.771 4
N₈	1.000 0	0.991 5	1.022 2	1.105 9	1.1910	1.062 1
N₉	1.000 0	0.925 9	1.018 5	0.925 9	0.8704	0.944 4

差序列	2019年	2020年	2021年	2022年	2023年
\|Δ₁\|	0.053 6	0.140 5	0.208 4	0.272 0	0.242 9
\|Δ₂\|	0.139 7	0.272 3	0.513 1	0.554 1	0.533 8
\|Δ₃\|	0.081 4	0.003 1	0.105 6	0.033 0	0.348 7
\|Δ₄\|	0.081 0	0.155 9	0.371 3	0.516 8	0.513 6
\|Δ₅\|	0.077 4	0.130 7	0.185 9	0.201 8	0.149 5
\|Δ₆\|	0.036 4	0.050 9	0.131 8	0.178 9	0.182 6
\|Δ₇\|	0.259 5	0.774 3	2.264 9	4.394 1	1.344 3
\|Δ₈\|	0.137 8	0.204 9	0.265 4	0.246 9	0.365 0
\|Δ₉\|	0.203 4	0.208 6	0.445 4	0.567 6	0.482 7

关联系数	2018年	2019年	2020年	2021年	2022年	2023年
ξ₁	1.000 0	0.976 2	0.939 9	0.913 4	0.889 8	0.900 4
ξ₂	1.000 0	0.940 2	0.889 7	0.810 7	0.798 6	0.804 5
ξ₃	1.000 0	0.964 3	0.998 6	0.954 1	0.985 2	0.863 0
ξ₄	1.000 0	0.964 4	0.933 8	0.855 4	0.809 6	0.810 5
ξ₅	1.000 0	0.966 0	0.943 9	0.922 0	0.915 9	0.936 3
ξ₆	1.000 0	0.983 7	0.977 4	0.943 4	0.924 7	0.923 3
ξ₇	1.000 0	0.894 4	0.739 4	0.492 4	0.333 3	0.620 4
ξ₈	1.000 0	0.941 0	0.914 7	0.892 2	0.899 0	0.857 5
ξ₉	1.000 0	0.915 3	0.913 3	0.831 4	0.794 7	0.8199

关联度	平均值	排序	关联度均值
γ₁	0.936 61	4	0.923 81
γ₂	0.873 96	8
γ₃	0.960 87	1
γ₄	0.895 62	6	0.933 90
γ₅	0.947 33	3
γ₆	0.958 74	2
γ₇	0.679 98	9	0.825 49
γ₈	0.917 40	5
γ₉	0.879 10	7