藏东南高原雪崩-堰塞湖-洪水灾害链动力学建模方法

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.05.1290

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5): 304-313.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.05.1290

藏东南高原雪崩-堰塞湖-洪水灾害链动力学建模方法

朱焯杰¹(), 朱家松¹^,²^,³, 姜文宇¹^,²^,³^,^**(), 陈梓军¹, 罗享寰¹^,²^,³, 李清泉¹^,³

¹ 深圳大学土木与交通工程学院, 广东深圳 518060
² 极端环境绿色长寿道路工程全国重点实验室(深圳), 广东深圳 518060
³ 自然资源部大湾区地理环境监测重点实验室, 广东深圳 518060

收稿日期:2025-12-12 修回日期:2026-03-10 出版日期:2026-05-28
通信作者:
^** 姜文宇(1995—),男,江西南昌人,博士,讲师,硕士生导师,主要从事防灾减灾与应急管理、计算机视觉与空间智能等方面的研究。E-mail: jiangwy@szu.edu.cn。
作者简介:
朱焯杰 (2004—),男,广东惠州人,本科,深圳大学院士领航科创训练营成员,主要研究方向为灾害监测预警和智能交通系统。E-mail: 2023096045@email.szu.edu.cn。
朱家松教授。
罗享寰副教授。
李清泉教授。
基金资助:
西藏自治区科技计划重点研发及转化项目(XZ202501ZY0006)

Dynamic modeling method for avalanche-dammed lake-flood hazard chains in southeastern Tibet Plateau

Zhu Zhuojie¹(), Zhu Jiasong¹^,²^,³, Jiang Wenyu¹^,²^,³^,^**(), Chen Zijun¹, Luo Xianghuan¹^,²^,³, Li Qingquan¹^,³

¹ College of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen Guangdong 518060, China
² National Key Laboratory of Green and Long-Life Road Engineering in Extreme Environment (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Guangdong 518060, China
³ MNR Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Great Bay Area, Shenzhen Guangdong 518060, China

Received:2025-12-12 Revised:2026-03-10 Published:2026-05-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为科学防控藏东南高原雪崩灾害,以G219国道某雪崩高发点为研究对象,构建雪崩灾害链动力学推演评估模型。首先,基于高精度数字高程模型、多源遥感影像及实地勘测数据构建基础地理数据集;其次,结合雪崩失稳崩塌机理与物理运动学方法,建立多环境因素驱动的雪崩过程物理特征计算模型,提取运动路径、动力特征及堆积体形态等关键参数;然后,采取SEEP/W模型量化分析雪崩堰塞体在不同水位梯度下的内部渗流稳定性;最后,通过水文工程中心河流分析系统(HEC-RAS)模型模拟堰塞体溃决后的洪水演进过程,计算流域下游水位与流速等关键物理量。结果表明:文中所构建的动力学建模方法能够量化表征灾害链演化过程:藏东南地区雪崩灾害具有积雪密度大、流速快、冲击力强等特征,积雪堆积体易堵塞邻域河流形成堰塞湖;积雪堆积坝体稳定性差,短期内溃决风险高,洪水对下游基础设施和村落构成严重冲淹威胁。

关键词: 藏东南高原, 雪崩-堰塞湖-洪水, 灾害链, 溃决洪水, 动力学建模

Abstract:

To achieve scientific prevention and control of avalanche disasters in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, a dynamic deduction and assessment model for avalanche hazard chains was developed, focusing on a high-frequency avalanche site along National Highway G219. A foundational geospatial dataset was first constructed using high-resolution digital elevation models, multi-source remote sensing imagery, and field survey data to support numerical modeling. Building upon snowpack instability mechanisms and physical kinematic theory, a multi-factor-driven model was established to quantify key physical parameters of avalanche processes, including flow trajectories, dynamic characteristics, and deposit morphologies. The SEEP/W model was then employed to evaluate the internal seepage stability of avalanche-induced natural dams under different water-level gradients. Finally, the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydrodynamic model was used to simulate the post-breach flood propagation, calculating critical variables such as downstream water levels and flow velocities. Results reveal that the dynamic modeling method proposed in this study can quantitatively characterize the evolution of the hazard chain: avalanches in this region are characterized by dense snowpack, high flow velocities, and strong impact forces, with deposited material prone to obstructing adjacent rivers and forming temporary dammed lakes. These provisional dams exhibit poor structural stability and are highly susceptible to rapid breaching, generating destructive floods that pose severe inundation threats to downstream infrastructure and nearby settlements.

Key words: southeastern Tibetan Plateau, avalanche-dammed lake-flood, hazard chain, dam-break flood, dynamic modeling

中图分类号:

X915.5

朱焯杰, 朱家松, 姜文宇, 陈梓军, 罗享寰, 李清泉. 藏东南高原雪崩-堰塞湖-洪水灾害链动力学建模方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2026, 36(5): 304-313.

Zhu Zhuojie, Zhu Jiasong, Jiang Wenyu, Chen Zijun, Luo Xianghuan, Li Qingquan. Dynamic modeling method for avalanche-dammed lake-flood hazard chains in southeastern Tibet Plateau[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(5): 304-313.

图/表 7

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监测点	洪水到达时间	最大淹没深度/m
M1	2 h 15 min	12.47
M2	28 h 50 min	2.88
M3	33 h 50 min	7.97
M4	39 h 20 min	6.47
M5	41 h 30 min	11.37

藏东南高原雪崩-堰塞湖-洪水灾害链动力学建模方法

Dynamic modeling method for avalanche-dammed lake-flood hazard chains in southeastern Tibet Plateau

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