基于复杂网络的长沙市内涝灾害链传播阻断机制

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0210

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为揭示城市内涝灾害链的跨系统级联传播机制并提升阻断效能,首先,基于复杂网络理论构建排水系统与交通系统的耦合网络模型,整合高精度地形数据、实时交通流量及历史涝情数据;然后,采用动态级联失效算法,量化节点中心度与连接边脆弱性,解析“暴雨-径流-积水-交通瘫痪”的跨系统传播路径;最后,提出关键节点加固、冗余路网优化、智能响应协同的三级韧性阻断策略。结果表明:泵站扩容与路网冗余设计可以有效减少渍水面积、缩短交通中断时长,有助于提升城市关键基础设施的系统韧性与主动免疫能力,推动城市防灾体系从被动应急转向主动免疫。

关键词: 复杂网络, 城市内涝, 灾害链, 级联失效, 阻断

Abstract:

To uncover the cross-system cascading propagation mechanism of urban waterlogging disaster chains and enhance blocking effectiveness, a coupled drainage-traffic network model was first constructed based on complex network theory, integrating high-precision topographic data, real-time traffic flow, and historical flooding records. A dynamic cascading-failure algorithm was then employed to quantify node centrality and link vulnerability, thereby dissecting the cross-system propagation path from “rainstorm-runoff-ponding-traffic paralysis”. Finally, a three-level resilience blocking strategy—critical-node reinforcement, redundant-road-network optimization, and intelligent-response coordination—is proposed. The results show that pump-station expansion and redundant road design can effectively reduce waterlogged area and shorten traffic-interruption duration. And this enhances the system resilience and proactive immunity of critical urban infrastructures. It shifts the disaster-prevention paradigm from passive emergency response to active immunity.

Key words: complex networks, urban waterlogging, disaster cascade, cascading failure, blocking

中图分类号:

X915.5

周思聪. 基于复杂网络的长沙市内涝灾害链传播阻断机制[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(12): 230-237.

ZHOU Sicong. Propagation blocking mechanism of urban waterlogging disaster chain in Changsha based on complex network[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(12): 230-237.

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节点类别		属性	示例	功能描述
S		降雨强度、历时、空间分布模式	气象网格(1 km×1 km)输入芝加哥雨型数据	模拟极端降雨的时空异质性,为灾害链触发提供初始驱动条件
C	排水井C₁	最大排水能力、实时流量/设计负荷率	湘江新区望城坡泵站设计流量15 m³/s,实时流量18 m³/s(负荷率120%)触发溢流	反映管网系统超载临界点,失效后导致上游积水无法排出,形成“暴雨-超载-溢流”灾害链
C	河道C₂	水位阈值、堤防高程、漫溢风险等级	浏阳河某段堤防高程36.5 m,水位超36.2 m时倒灌风险激增	河道排水能力饱和时成为跨区域灾害扩散枢纽,引发倒灌风险
T	社区T₁	人口密度、建筑抗涝等级	雨花区湘府路某社区地下室占比30%,积水超0.5 m时渗水风险	积水引发基础设施损毁(如供电中断),形成“积水-社会瘫痪”终端灾害链
T	医院T₂	救护车调度容量、备用电源覆盖率	三甲医院应急通道状态监测	节点失效直接削弱应急救援能力(如救护车无法调度),加剧灾害社会影响

社区/易涝点名称	模拟失效数量	实际失效数量	误差率/%	主要原因
湘江新区望城坡早谷塘口	2	3	33.3	管网淤积数据缺失
芙蓉区东岸建材公交车站前	3	3	0	模型精准匹配
雨花区湘府路半岛蓝湾	5	6	16.7	地形建模局部偏差
总计	10	12	16.7	—

指标	实际值	模拟值	误差率/%
内涝点数量	19	17	10.5
平均应急响应时间/min	43	47	9.3
经济损失/亿元	2.7	2.4	11.1

节点名称	所属区域	中心性类型	脆弱性指数	主要风险类型
望城坡早谷塘口	湘江新区	度中心性	0.92	内涝连锁
小王家巷泵站	开福区	介数中心性	0.85	跨流域传导
湘府路半岛蓝湾	雨花区	度/介数复合	0.78	交通中断
东岸建材公交站	芙蓉区	介数中心性	0.76	社区瘫痪
西二环罗家嘴	湘江新区	介数中心性	0.72	次生积水