中国安全科学学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (6): 40-50.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.06.1100

• 安全技术与工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于少样本数据驱动的危化品爆炸事故风险定级模型

张景林1(), 陈圣群2,**()   

  1. 1 福建商学院 信息工程学院, 福建 福州 350012
    2 福建江夏学院 工商管理学院, 福建 福州 350012
  • 收稿日期:2025-11-21 修回日期:2026-02-26 出版日期:2026-06-28
  • 通信作者:
    ** 陈圣群(1977—),男,福建莆田人,博士,教授,主要从事数据管理与智能决策方面的研究。E-mail:
  • 作者简介:

    张景林 (1978—),女,福建福州人,硕士,副教授,主要从事自然语言处理、数据挖掘等方面的研究。E-mail:

  • 基金资助:
    福建省自然科学基金资助(2022J01993)

Risk rating model for hazardous chemical explosion accidents based on few-shot data-driven approach

Zhang Jinglin1(), Chen Shengqun2,**()   

  1. 1 College of Information Engineering, Fujian Business University, Fuzhou Fujian 350012, China
    2 College of Business Administration, Fujian Jiangxia University, Fuzhou Fujian 350012, China
  • Received:2025-11-21 Revised:2026-02-26 Published:2026-06-28

摘要:

为了挖掘危化品爆炸事故报告中的潜在风险信息,提高公众在社交媒体中获取信息时的风险感知力,利用文本挖掘技术、风险评估和深度学习模型,构建一个危化品爆炸事故风险定级的智能模型。首先,提取事故调查报告中的关键信息(危化品、事故原因、事故后果等),依据风险评估矩阵表标注事故报告风险等级;其次,针对危化事故数据的长尾分布特性,提出一种非均衡少样本数据驱动的融合策略,并采用基于变换器的双向编码器表征(BERT)、长短期记忆(LSTM)网络、卷积神经网络(CNN)、门控循环单元(GRU)等4种模型,对比验证增强策略效果;最后,构建一种设有风险因子感知机制的双向门控循环 (BiGRU)神经网络事故风险定级模型。研究结果表明:该定级模型可对危化品爆炸事故进行自动风险评级,同时增加强公众风险认知能力。

关键词: 危化品爆炸事故, 少样本数据驱动, 风险定级模型, 双向门控循环 (BiGRU)神经网络, 风险感知, 注意力机制

Abstract:

In order to mine potential risk information in reports of hazardous chemical explosion accidents, and enhance public awareness of risks when obtaining information on social media, an intelligent model for risk classification of hazardous chemical explosion accidents was constructed using text mining technology, risk assessment, and deep learning models. Firstly, the key information was extracted from accident investigation reports (e.g. hazardous chemicals, causes of the accident, consequences of the accident, etc.), and risk levels were assigned to the reports according a risk assessment matrix. Secondly, in response to the long-tail distribution characteristics of hazardous chemical accident data, a fusion strategy driven by imbalanced few-shot data was proposed, and four models such as Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) were used for comparative verification to test the effects of enhancement strategies. Finally, an accident risk rating model was constructed based on a BiGRU neural network with a risk-factor perception mechanism. The results show that rating model can perform automatic risk assessment for hazardous chemical explosion incidents while enhancing public risk awareness capabilities.

Key words: hazardous chemical explosion accidents, risk rating model, few-shot data-driven, bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) neural network, risk perception, attention mechanism

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