突发事件扰动下油气储备库安全韧性评估

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.07.0688

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为保障我国油气战略储备安全,提出一种突发事件扰动下油气储备库安全韧性定量评估方法,围绕传统、战略与信息-物理跨域3类风险,开展系统失效演化动态模拟。考虑油气储备库系统的抗干扰和自恢复能力,定量描述系统安全韧性演化特征,评估不同突发事件下系统安全韧性。以某地上油气战略储备库为例,开展4类9种突发事件场景模拟。结果表明:同一突发事件下,不同直径、位置的储罐失效其事故演化特征与安全韧性值存在显著差异;信息-物理跨域风险突发事件呈现高传播、易阻断、快恢复的特点;战略安全风险突发事件破坏程度高,韧性水平低。该方法可清晰地量化不同突发事件对储备库系统动态影响,对比不同安全保障措施应用效果,从而针对性提出“事前-事中-事后”多维度安全韧性提升措施。

关键词: 突发事件, 油气储备库, 安全韧性, 小世界(SW)理论, 多米诺效应

Abstract:

To ensure the safety of national strategic oil and gas reserve depots, a quantitative assessment method for the safety resilience of oil and gas storage facilities under sudden event disturbances was proposed in this paper. Three types of risks, namely traditional risks, strategic security risks, and cyber-physical cross-domain risks, were adopted to simulate the dynamic evolution of system failures. The anti-interference and self-recovery capabilities of the oil and gas storage system were incorporated, and the evolution characteristics of system safety resilience were quantitatively described. The safety resilience of the system under different sudden events was then assessed. A above-ground oil and gas strategic reserve facility was taken as an example, and nine sudden event scenarios across four categories were simulated. The results show that, under the same sudden event, significant differences exist in the accident evolution characteristics and safety resilience values of storage tanks with different diameters and spatial locations. Cyber physical cross-domain sudden events feature fast spreading, easy containment and rapid system recovery, whereas strategic security sudden events lead to strong destructive effects and low resilience levels. The proposed method provides a clear quantitative description of the dynamic impacts of different sudden events on oil and gas storage systems. It also supports the comparison of different safety assurance measures and provides a basis for proposing targeted multidimensional safety resilience improvement measures from pre-event, during-event, and post-event perspectives.

Key words: emergency events, oil and gas reserve depots, safety resilience, small world(SW) theory, domino effect

中图分类号:

X937

肖尚蕊, 胡瑾秋, 张来斌. 突发事件扰动下油气储备库安全韧性评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2026, 36(7): 216-224.

Xiao Shangrui, Hu Jinqiu, Zhang Laibin. Safety resilience assessment for oil and gas reserve depots under sudden event disturbances[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(7): 216-224.

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储罐类型	罐体	直径/m	Q/(kW/m²)
1	立式储罐	6	125
2	立式储罐	20	125
3	立式储罐	50	125
4	球罐	6	375

场景	储罐类型	初始扰动节点	扰动时间/h
1.1	1	中心储罐	1
1.2	1	顶点储罐	1
1.3	2	顶点储罐	1
1.4	4	顶点储罐	1
2.1	1	顶点储罐传感器	1
2.2	3	顶点储罐传感器	1
2.3	4	顶点储罐传感器	1
3.1	1	控制中心	1
4.1	1	顶点储罐、边储罐	3

场景	安全韧性值	场景	安全韧性值
1.1	0.073	2.1	1.023
1.2	0.089	2.2	0.978
1.3	0.053	2.3	1.061
1.4	0.163	3.1	10.45
—	—	4.1	0.038

场景	安全保护措施	安全韧值
1.3	储罐间距增加为0.8λ	0.072
	储罐间距增加为λ	0.073
	储罐间距增加为8λ	0.302
	改变储罐布局为1×9	0.088
	相邻储罐长时间降温,κ取100 kW/(m²·h)	0.184
	相邻储罐长时间降温,κ取220 kW/(m²·h)	0.302
2.1	增加冗余传感器,信息失效传播阻断	1.499
3.1	引入功能区域隔离子网	11.8

方法	SW-IRML	指标体系	IRML
风险传播	√	×	√
经验依赖	×	√	√
信息-物理安全	√	×	×
多米诺效应	√	√	×