中国安全科学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 192-198.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.01.028

• 应急技术与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于贝叶斯网络的输油管道泄漏事故情景推演

屈静1 高级工程师, 张建彬1, 李旭芳2, 陆宝3, 华宁4 高级工程师, 朱晓曼5   

  1. 1 中国石油西部管道公司 质量安全环保处,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830013;
    2 东方地球物理公司 海洋物探处,天津 300457;
    3 中国石油西部管道公司乌鲁木齐输油气分公司 质量安全环保科,新疆 乌鲁木齐830000;
    4 新疆维吾尔自治区应急管理厅 自治区安全科学技术研究院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011;
    5 中国矿业大学(北京) 应急管理与安全工程学院,北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2020-10-17 修回日期:2020-12-12 出版日期:2021-01-28 发布日期:2021-07-28
  • 作者简介:屈 静 (1983—),男,陕西咸阳人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事燃气轮机、输油泵机组的运行管理、维护工作。E-mail:tlmjingqu@petrochina.com.cn。

Deduction of leakage accident scenarios of oil pipelines based on Bayesian network

QU Jing1, ZHANG Jianbin1, LI Xufang2, LU Bao3, HUA Ning4, ZHU Xiaoman5   

  1. 1 Department of Quality, Safety and Environmental Protection,PetroChina West Pipeline Company, Urumqi Xinjiang 830013, China;
    2 Department of Offshore Geophysical Prospecting, Bureau of Geophysical Prospecting Inc., China National Petroleum Corporation, Tianjin 300457, China;
    3 Section of Quality, Safety and Environmental Protection, Urumqi Oil and Gas Transmission Sub-company of PetroChina West Pipeline Company, Urumqi Xinjiang 830000, China;
    4 Xinjiang Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Department of Emergency Management of Xinjiang, Urumqi Xinjiang 830011, China;
    5 School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2020-10-17 Revised:2020-12-12 Online:2021-01-28 Published:2021-07-28

摘要: 为提高输油管道企业应急管理水平,采用情景分析和动态贝叶斯网络(BN)相结合的方法,研究输油管道泄漏事故情景演化过程。通过分析典型输油管道泄漏事故案例,选取事故情景状态、应急措施、驱动因素和应急目标为关键要素,结合动态BN构建输油管道泄漏事故情景推演模型,研究输油管道泄漏事故情景演化的特征与路径;将该模型运用到我国某油气管道公司发生的一起输油管道泄漏事故中,计算情景状态概率,从而推演情景发展趋势。结果表明:引起事故发生风险概率较高的情景状态依次为“第三方施工开挖导致管道破损,原油泄漏”、“地面出现明火”、“地面残火”、“路面残油燃烧”。

关键词: 贝叶斯网络(BN), 输油管道, 泄漏事故, 情景推演, 应急措施

Abstract: In order to improve emergency management of oil pipeline enterprises, a method combining scenario analysis and dynamic Bayesian network was used to study evolution process of oil pipeline leakage accident scenarios. Based on analysis of typical leakage cases, accident scenario state, emergency measures, driving factors, and emergency targets were selected as key elements, a scenario deduction model was established building on dynamic BN, and evolution law and path of leakage accident scenarios were analyzed. Finally, this model was applied to a leakage accident that occurred in an oil and gas pipeline company in China to calculate probability of scenario state and derive its development trend. The results show that scenario states that have a high probability to cause accidents are "pipeline damage and crude oil leakage caused by third-party construction excavations", "open flames on the ground", "ground residual fire", and "hidden danger of road surface residual oil burning".

Key words: Bayesian network (BN), oil & gas pipeline, leakage, scenario analysis, emergency management

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