基于产业结构视角的区域生产安全异质性分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.04.0909

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为明确我国各区域间生产安全状况的差异及其原因,根据2005—2019年的国内省级面板数据,分析近15年中国31个省(市自治区)的生产安全状况和产业结构水平,利用基于Driscoll Kraay标准误的双向固定效应估计模型,研究全国整体及4大经济区层面,各区域产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化对生产安全状况的影响。研究结果表明:不同经济水平和工业特征下,产业调整对生产安全状况的影响具有区域异质性,对东部、中部、西部地区起到改善作用,伴随产业合理化水平提高,东北地区事故风险上升。产业结构的优化升级有助于改善生产安全状况,通过加强区域间产业合理化和高级化的协同作用,因地制宜调整产业结构,能够促进区域生产安全和高质量经济的并行发展。

关键词: 生产安全, 区域异质性, 产业结构高级化, 双向固定效应, 亿元GDP死亡率

Abstract:

In order to clarify the differences and causes of work safety conditions among regions in China, based on the domestic provincial panel data from 2005 to 2019, this paper analyzed the work safety conditions and industrial structure levels of 31 provinces in China in the past 15 years, and used the two-way fixed effect estimation model based on Driscoll Kraay standard error to study the impact of industrial structure rationalization and industrial structure upgrading on work safety conditions at the level of the whole country and the four major economic zones. The results show that under different economic levels and industrial characteristics, the impact of industrial adjustment on work safety has regional heterogeneity, which improves the eastern, central and western regions. With the improvement of industrial rationalization level, the accident risk in Northeast China increases. The optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is conducive to improving work safety. By strengthening the synergy between regional industrial rationalization and upgrading, it can promote the parallel development of regional work safety and high-quality economy.

Key words: work safety, regional heterogeneity, advanced industrial structure, two-way fixed effect, 100 million GDP mortality

张江石, 冒香凝, 郁研, 李静, 尤晴晴. 基于产业结构视角的区域生产安全异质性分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(4): 29-35.

ZHANG Jiangshi, MAO Xiangning, YU Yan, LI Jing, YOU Qingqing. Analysis of regional work safety heterogeneity based on persrective of industrial structure[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(4): 29-35.

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省(市区自治区)	产业合理化		产业高级化
年份	2005	2019	2005	2019
北京	0.039	0.026	2.703	5.234
天津	0.093	0.037	0.868	1.804
河北	0.223	0.143	0.801	1.349
山西	0.384	0.272	0.604	1.161
内蒙古	0.402	0.321	1.130	1.270
辽宁	0.172	0.130	0.860	1.393
吉林	0.259	0.138	1.153	1.525
黑龙江	0.371	0.059	0.537	1.846
上海	0.172	0.019	1.111	2.716
江苏	0.191	0.062	0.635	1.169
浙江	0.110	0.042	0.747	1.296
安徽	0.220	0.150	1.143	1.266
福建	0.164	0.099	0.816	0.980
江西	0.129	0.110	0.757	1.090
山东	0.262	0.131	0.586	1.322
河南	0.332	0.179	0.615	1.131
湖北	0.314	0.188	0.957	1.223
湖南	0.220	0.223	1.125	1.353
广东	0.202	0.117	0.861	1.390
广西	0.316	0.249	1.143	1.533
海南	0.188	0.096	1.589	2.923
重庆	0.278	0.138	0.920	1.348
四川	0.240	0.139	0.956	1.418
贵州	0.832	0.329	0.977	1.426
云南	0.601	0.292	1.055	1.504
西藏	0.363	0.217	2.276	1.454
陕西	0.393	0.507	0.880	1.021
甘肃	0.530	0.372	1.021	1.676
青海	0.412	0.180	1.294	1.287
宁夏	0.325	0.272	0.963	1.185
新疆	0.346	0.228	0.805	1.470

变量名称	符号	变量说明及测度	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
生产安全死亡人数	lnP	对事故死亡人数取对数	7.397	-0.850	4.997	9.345
亿元GDP死亡率	lnA	对亿元GDP死亡率取对数	-1.936	1.110	-4.578	0.854
产业合理化	lnR	参考式(1)	-1.643	0.777	-4.048	-0.160
产业高级化	lnH	第三产业与第二产业比重	0.088	0.390	-0.640	1.655
技术创新	lnD	研发投入资金占GDP比重	-4.458	0.737	-6.567	-0.357
人力资本	lnE	劳动者平均受教育年限	-0.406	0.385	-1.561	0.410
安全投入	lnI	固定资产占GDP比重,	2.224	0.167	1.252	2.632
工业发展水平	lnT	各省工业总产值占GDP比重	10.441	0.656	8.528	12.008

变量	FE	FE-DK	FE-DK	FE-DK	FE-DK
lnR	0.225^*** (2.86)	-0.175^*** (-3.29)	-0.174^*** (-3.17)	-0.174^*** (-3.16)	-0.184^*** (-3.21)
lnH	-1.52^*** (-12.81)	-0.223^** (-2.95)	-0.23^*** (-3.37)	-0.24^*** (-3.17)	-0.196^** (-2.32)
lnD	—	-0.027^* (-1.87)	-0.026^* (-1.88)	-0.026^* (-1.91)	-0.026^* (-1.88)
lnI	—	—	-0.026 (-0.57)	-0.026 (-0.56)	-0.041 (-0.77)
lnE	—	—	—	-0.056 (-0.75)	-0.056 (-0.72)
lnT	—	—	—	—	0.111 (1.72)
常数项	7.900^*** (63.84)	7.701^*** (98.36)	7.69^*** (115.94)	7.802^*** (51.16)	6.725^*** (11.79)
控个体	是	是	是	是	是
控时间	否	是	是	是	是
个体数	465	464	464	464	464

变量	东北 FE	东北 FE-DK	东部 FE	东部 FE-DK	中部 FE	中部 FE-DK	西部 FE	西部 FE-DK
lnR	0.091 (0.61)	0.080^** (2.29)	-0.040 (-0.40)	-0.070 (-1.11)	0.338 (0.96)	-0.817^*** (-4.15)	0.701^*** (4.76)	-0.169 (-0.69)
lnH	-1.244^*** (-5.21)	-0.187^*** (-4.25)	-1.945^*** (-11.29)	-0.127 (-0.41)	-1.504^*** (-4.67)	-0.052 (-0.16)	-1.382^*** (-6.19)	-0.065 (-0.50)
lnD	—	0.060 (0.61)	—	-0.067 (-0.35)	—	-0.634 (-1.45)	—	-0.016 (-0.44)
lnI	—	0.027 (1.16)	—	0.019 (0.16)	—	-0.162 (-1.36)	—	0.210^** (2.40)
lnE	—	1.013 (1.00)	—	-1.070 (-1.08)	—	1.310 (0.54)	—	0.032 (0.19)
lnT	—	-0.110 (-0.72)	—	-0.014 (-0.20)	—	1.561^*** (4.24)	—	0.270 (1.76)
常数项	7.622^*** (30.93)	5.140^*** (3.72)	7.912^*** (35.74)	10.283^*** (3.38)	7.900^*** (13.99)	-13.184^** (-2.29)	8.010^*** (54.79)	5.140^*** (3.72)
控个体	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
控时间	否	是	否	是	否	是	否	是
个体数	465	464	465	464	465	464	465	464