基于系统动力学理论的事故解释方法

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.10.009

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (10): 50-55.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.10.009

基于系统动力学理论的事故解释方法

胡志宏, 曾嵘, 刘祖德^** 副教授

中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,湖北武汉 430074

收稿日期:2018-07-03 修回日期:2018-09-05 出版日期:2018-10-28 发布日期:2020-11-20
通讯作者: **刘祖德(1969—),男,湖北松滋人,博士,副教授,主要从事安全系统科学与理论的教学与研究。E-mail:liu_zude@163.com。
作者简介:胡志宏 (1995—),男,贵州金沙人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为安全系统(工程)学理论、方法、应用。E-mail:huzhihong95@126.com。

A method for interpreting work safety accident based on system dynamics theory

HU Zhihong, ZENG Rong, LIU Zude

Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan Hubei 430074,China

Received:2018-07-03 Revised:2018-09-05 Online:2018-10-28 Published:2020-11-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为剖析生产安全事故发生的原因,寻找安全问题的杠杆解,更好地指导事故处理和预防控制,运用文献研究法和案例分析法,基于本体论思想的元事件模型,提出将事故描述图谱和辅助说明表相结合的事故描述方法;在此基础上,基于系统动力学(SD)理论,提出“DRAC”事故解释方法,即分为解构(Deconstruction)、重构(Reconstruction)、分析(Analysis)、总结(Conclude)等4部分解释事故,最后选取案例对上述方法进行适用性和可操作性研究。结果表明:该方法的适用性良好,可操作性强。

关键词: 生产安全事故, 事故描述, 元事件, 事故解释, 系统动力学(SD), 杠杆解

Abstract: In order to analyze the causes of work safety accidents, find leverage solutions to safety problems and guide the handling, prevention and control of accidents better, a work safety accident interpretation method based on SD theory was worked out with the applying of literature research method and case analysis method. Based on the meta-event model of ontology, an accident description method combining accident description atlas and auxiliary description table was proposed, and a "DRAC" accident interpretation method was proposed based on system dynamics theory which was divided into four parts including Deconstruction, Reconstruction, Analysis and Conclude to explain the accidents. The applicability and maneuverability of the above method were studied by selecting cases. The results show that the method has good manifestation on both parts.

Key words: work safety accident, accident description, meta-event, accident interpretation, system dynamics(SD), leverage solutions

中图分类号:

X928

胡志宏, 曾嵘, 刘祖德. 基于系统动力学理论的事故解释方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(10): 50-55.

HU Zhihong, ZENG Rong, LIU Zude. A method for interpreting work safety accident based on system dynamics theory[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(10): 50-55.

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基于系统动力学理论的事故解释方法

A method for interpreting work safety accident based on system dynamics theory

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