基于最优供需分配的乡村避难场所布局优化: 以焦作市西村乡为例

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.10.0082

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提升乡村地区应急响应能力和避难场所体系的服务效能,采用最优供需分配模型,结合地理信息系统(GIS)软件分析豫北乡村的村级紧急避难所和乡(镇)级短期避难所的可达性;选取影响应急避难场所选址的关键因素构建应急避难场所空间适宜性评价指标体系;通过评价西村乡应急避难场所空间布局,优化研究区避难场所体系的空间布局。研究结果表明:西村乡避难场所体系可达性较差且村级避难场所局部超载、乡镇级避难场所空间分布不合理且严重短缺的供需失衡特征;选址适宜性评价结果呈现出南优北劣的空间分异格局;通过增设村级避难场所、提升高适宜区场所等级后西村乡乡(镇)村两级应急避难场所供需不平衡和可达性均有所改善。

关键词: 最优供需分配, 乡村, 应急避难场所, 布局优化, 可达性

Abstract:

In order to enhance emergency response capabilities and the service efficiency of shelter systems in rural areas, this study adopted an optimal supply-demand allocation model integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS) software (ArcGIS) to evaluate the accessibility of village-level emergency shelters and township-level short-term shelters in northern Henan province. Key factors influencing shelter site selection were identified to construct a spatial suitability evaluation index system. Using this system, we assessed the spatial distribution of emergency shelters in Xicun town and proposed optimization strategies for the shelter system. The results reveal a significant supply-demand imbalance characterized by poor accessibility, partial overload of village-level shelters, and an irrational distribution with severe shortages of township-level shelters. The suitability evaluation indicates a clear north-south disparity, with higher suitability in the south. After implementing optimization measures—including adding village-level shelters and upgrading those in highly suitable areas—both the balance between supply and demand and overall accessibility are improved across the two-tier shelter system in Xicun town.

Key words: optimal supply-demand allocation model, rural, emergency shelters, spatial layout optimization, accessibility

中图分类号:

X915.5

侯可心, 佟艳, 樊良新. 基于最优供需分配的乡村避难场所布局优化: 以焦作市西村乡为例[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(10): 220-229.

HOU Kexin, TONG Yan, FAN Liangxin. Optimizing layout of emergency shelters in rural areas based on optimal supply-demand allocation: a case study of Xicun town, Jiaozuo city[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(10): 220-229.

图/表 14

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表1

应急避难场所选址适宜性评价指标体系

准则层	权重	指标层	权重	综合权重	指标内涵	赋值依据	赋值
选址安全性	0.472 8	地质安全性	0.517 6	0.245	可能发生滑坡、崩塌、塌陷、泥石流的区位	不在地质灾害易发地段	5
		地质安全性	0.517 6	0.245	可能发生滑坡、崩塌、塌陷、泥石流的区位	在地质灾害易发地段	1
		距消防站距离/km	0.283 8	0.134	消防站是灾害发生后救灾的重要力量,距其越近,就可以越快展开救助	[0,0.5]	5
						(0.5,2]	3
						(2,+∞)	1
		坡度/%	0.103 9	0.049	应急避难场所应选择地势较为空旷,坡度较小的平缓地带	(0,7]	4
						(7,15]	3
						(15,30]	2
						(30,+∞)	1
		海拔/m	0.094 7	0.045	高海拔地区可能更容易受到某些自然灾害的影响,如泥石流、山体滑坡等	[168.625,404.033]	5
						(404.033,590.583]	4
						(590.583,781.575]	3
						(781.575,994.775]	2
						(994.775,1301.25]	1
救援可达性	0.216 5	距村级卫生室距离/km	0.231 8	0.050	应急避难场所距医疗设施的距离越近,受伤的灾民就可以越快得到救助,等级越高救助效果越好	[0,0.5]	5
						(0.5,1]	3
						(1,+∞)	1
		距镇级卫生院距离/km	0.414 3	0.090		[0,1]	5
						(1,2]	3
						(2,+∞)	1
		距县级以上道路距离/km	0.192 1	0.042	距道路越近,越便于到达应急避难场所得到救助。高等级的道路通常具有更好的通行能力,居民在紧急情况下能够更快地到达应急避难场所	[0,1]	5
						(1,2]	3
						(2,+∞)	1
		距县级以下道路距离/km	0.161 8	0.035		(0,0.5]	5
						(0.5,1.5]	3
						(1.5,+∞)	1
区位适配性	0.310 7	乡镇级短期避难场所服务范围	0.235 9	0.073	根据GB/T 44013—2024《应急避难场所分级及分类》短期避难场所宜30~40 min内可达。乡镇级短期避难阶段,乡镇级短期避难场所距离村级紧急避难所越近,所用时间越短,救助效果越好;紧急避难场所宜10~15 min内可达。村级紧急避难阶段,应急避难场所距居民点越近,所用时间越短,救助效果越好	10 min内可达	5
						10~20 min内可达	4
						20~30 min内可达	3
						30~40 min内可达	2
						40 min以上可达	1
		村级紧急避难场所服务范围	0.390 2	0.121		5 min内可达	4
						5~10 min内可达	3
						10~15 min内可达	2
						15 min以上可达	1
		最优分配后15 min阈值以外避难需求人口剩余量/人	0.310 2	0.096	计算最优分配后各居民点15 min阈值以外的剩余人口数,利用自然间断点法对其分级,剩余人口数越多对应急避难场所需求越大	(841,1881]	5
						(219,841]	4
						(73,219]	3
						(25,73]	2
						[0,25]	1
		土地利用类型	0.637 0	0.020	土地利用类型根据土地利用类型选出合理的建设用地	建设用地	5
		土地利用类型	0.637 0	0.020	土地利用类型根据土地利用类型选出合理的建设用地	其他用地类型	1

表1

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