基于风险的化工园区应急物资储备库多目标选址模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.10.1348

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提高化工园区内应急救援效率,减少事故损失,综合考虑化工园区风险与应急物资供应时效的整体风险,将应急救援成本划分为应急物资储备库建设成本、物资储存成本和运输成本,建立以整体风险最小、应急救援成本最低且储备库对需求点的覆盖率最优为目标的化工园区应急物资储备库选址模型,并以天津市某化工园区为例进行验证分析,用非支配排序遗传算法 II(NSGA-II算法)求解模型,得到该园区建设不同数量应急物资储备库时储备库位置、成本、风险及覆盖率。结果表明:该模型在200代内即可稳定收敛;随着储备库数量增加,投入成本持续上升、覆盖率逐步提升,风险前期降幅显著后期趋于稳定。模型可以输出多种选址方案,有效解决了化工园区应急物资储备库选址中“风险-成本-覆盖率”难以平衡的问题,帮助决策者在复杂的应急物资储备库选址问题中据不同偏好作出更加科学和合理的决策。

关键词: 风险, 化工园区, 应急物资储备库, 多目标, 选址模型, 非支配排序遗传算法 II(NSGA-II算法)

Abstract:

In order to improve the efficiency of emergency rescue and reduce accident losses in chemical industrial parks, this study comprehensively considered the risk of chemical parks and the overall risk of emergency supplies, divides the cost of emergency rescue into the cost of construction of emergency supplies reserve, storage cost and transportation cost, and established a model for selecting the site of emergency material reserve in chemical parks. The model aims to minimize the overall risk, minimize the cost of emergency rescue and optimize the coverage of the reserve to the demand point. Taking a chemical industrial park in Tianjin as an example for validation analysis, the model was solved using the NSGA-II algorithm. When constructing different numbers of emergency material storage within the chemical industrial park, the optimal solutions for the location, cost, risk, and coverage of these storage facilities were obtained. The research results show that the model converges stably within 200 generations. As the amount of emergency material storage increases, investment costs continue to rise, coverage gradually improves, risks are significantly reduced in the early stages, and stabilize in the later stages. The model can generate multiple site selection schemes, effectively addressing the challenge of balancing the “risk-cost-coverage ratio” in the site selection process for emergency material storage within chemical industrial parks. This helps decision-makers make more scientific and reasonable decisions in complex emergency material storage site selection issues based on different preferences.

Key words: risk, chemical industry park, emergency material storage, multi objectives, location models, non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅱ(NSGA-Ⅱ)

中图分类号:

X937

关文玲, 田维嘉, 董呈杰, 夏跃爽, 廖飞. 基于风险的化工园区应急物资储备库多目标选址模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(10): 213-219.

GUAN Wenling, TIAN Weijia, DONG Chengjie, XIA Yueshuang, LIAO Fei. Multi objective site selection model for emergency material storage in chemical industry park based on risk[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(10): 213-219.

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参考文献 18

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企业代号	经度/(°)	纬度/(°)
1	117.411 269	38.844 977
2	117.385 932	38.844 968
︙	︙	︙
25	117.264 427	38.814 869
26	117.240 790	38.804 807

d_ij/km	1	…	26
1	1	…	19.3
︙	︙		︙
26	19.3	…	1

T_ij/min	1	…	26
1	0	…	38.6
︙	︙		︙
26	38.6	…	0

企业序号	事故类型	综合风险	应急物资量/kg
1	池火灾	39.15	26
2	池火灾	339.28	1357.13
3	池火灾	455.32	112.93
4	池火灾	11.11	11.56
5	池火灾	12.27	12
6	池火灾	5.79	14.42
7	池火灾	15.80	20.55
8	蒸气爆炸	2.83	5.66
9	池火灾	10.63	10.4
9	物理爆炸	10.63	10.4
10	池火灾	6.29	7.72
11	物理爆炸	27.69	28.81
12	池火灾	10.66	21
13	池火灾	4.93	3.94
14	池火灾	0.77	1.03
15	物理爆炸	9.19	11.48
16	燃烧爆炸	0.18	0.18
17	池火灾	1.34	4.64
18	池火灾	52.87	53.32
18	物理爆炸	52.87	53.32
19	池火灾	78.72	14.99
20	中毒扩散	105.79	423.16
21	中毒扩散	110.13	440.53
22	中毒扩散	0.99	3.94
23	池火灾	94.83	379.3
24	中毒扩散	413.71	1 654.85
25	中毒扩散	0.89	3.56
26	池火灾	12.99	8.28

储备库数量	成本/元	风险	响应覆盖率/%	交叉响应覆盖率/%
1	6 554 039.05	26 211.99	30.77	0
2	6 653 966.17	10 077.31	42.31	0
3	6 753 961.04	6 308.71	61.54	0
4	6 853 946.3	7 598.2	73.08	19.23
5	6 953 941.06	5 763.94	88.46	11.54
6	7 053 934.91	4 067.92	92.31	19.23
7	7 153 930.83	3 294.59	96.15	26.92
8	7 253 927.07	2 341	100	7.69
9	7 353 924.52	2 028.66	100	15.38
10	7 453 923.21	1 872.38	100	23.08
11	7 553 922.3	1 776.17	100	19.23
12	7 653 921.52	1 762.73	100	53.85
13	7 753 920.85	1 595.75	100	76.92