基于序关系分析法的大型综合体火灾风险评估

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.02.0202

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为准确识别和评估城市中大型综合体的火灾风险,从建筑防火、消防设施、电气防火、消防安全管理、应急处置与联动、消防技术服务6个维度构建包含32个二级指标的火灾风险评估指标体系;采用序关系分析法获得各指标的主观权重,引用熵权法确定各指标的客观权重,基于博弈论组合赋权法确定各指标的组合权重,并应用云模型理论量化分析某市大型综合体的火灾风险。结果表明:该模型不仅能够避免指标权重的主观局限性,还能考虑评估过程中的模糊性和随机性;该大型综合体的主要风险来自于消防技术服务和应急处置与联动,需采取相应的措施防患于未然;评价结果与实际情况相符,验证了该模型在大型综合体火灾风险评估的可行性。

关键词: 大型综合体, 火灾风险评估, 序关系, 熵权法, 云图

Abstract:

To accurately identify and evaluate the fire risk in large-scale urban complexes, a fire risk assessment indicators system was constructed, consisting of 32 secondary indicators across six dimensions: building fire protection, fire protection facilities, electrical fire prevention, fire safety management, emergency response and coordination, and fire protection technical services. The order relation method was employed to determine the subjective weights of each indicator, while the entropy weight method was used to calculate the objective weights. Subsequently, a game-theory-based combined weighting approach was utilized to derive integrated weights, and a cloud model was applied to quantitatively analyze the fire risk of a large complex in a specific city. The results demonstrate that this combining model not only mitigates the subjectivity limitations in indicator weighting but also accounts for the fuzziness and randomness in the evaluation process. The primary risks of the large complex stem from fire protection technical services as well as emergency response and coordination, requiring preventive measures. Furthermore, the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation, validating the feasibility of the proposed model in assessing fire risks for large-scale urban complexes.

Key words: large complexes, fire risk assessment, order relation, entropy weight method, cloud chart

中图分类号:

X932爆炸安全与防火、防爆

孙斌, 李浩, 毛占利, 柏子聪, 刘彦谦. 基于序关系分析法的大型综合体火灾风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(2): 81-88.

SUN Bin, LI Hao, MAO Zhanli, BAI Zicong, LIU Yanqian. Fire risk assessment of large complex based on order relation analysis method[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(2): 81-88.

图/表 6

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一级指标	二级指标	编制依据
建筑防火B₁	耐火等级C₁₁	文献[13⇓⇓-16]
	防火分隔C₁₂
	总平面布局与平面布置C₁₃
	建筑外保温C₁₄
	建筑内部装饰C₁₅
	安全疏散C₁₆
	避难设施C₁₇
消防设施B₂	消防供水设施C₂₁	文献[17⇓⇓-20]
	消火栓系统C₂₂
	自动喷水灭火系统C₂₃
	火灾自动报警系统C₂₄
	防烟排烟系统及通风、空调系统防火C₂₅
	建筑灭火设施配置与布置C₂₆
	消防电梯C₂₇
电气防火B₃	消防电源C₃₁	文献[12-13]
	消防配电C₃₂
	用电设施C₃₃
	电气火灾监控体系C₃₄
	防静电设施C₃₅
消防安全管理 B₄	单位消防安全职责C₄₁	文献[12]和[21]
	消防安全责任人的职责C₄₂
	消防安全管理人的职责C₄₃
	部门负责人和员工职责C₄₄
	经营人员职责C₄₅
	消防控制室值班员职责C₄₆
应急处置与联动B₅	预案编制C₅₁	文献[12]和[22]
	预案演练C₅₂
	预案的宣贯和完善C₅₃
	联动机制的建立和运行C₅₄
消防技术服务B₆	建筑消防设施监测C₆₁	文献[22⇓-24]

一级指标	一级指标序关系值 R_k	一级指标主观权重 ω_k	二级指标	二级指标序关系值 R_k	二级指标主观权重 ω_k
B₁	1.0	0.09	C₁₁	1.0	0.06
			C₁₂	1.2	0.08
			C₁₃	1.1	0.09
			C₁₄	1.3	0.11
			C₁₅	1.4	0.16
			C₁₆	1.3	0.21
			C₁₇	1.4	0.29
B₂	1.1	0.10	C₂₁	1.0	0.06
			C₂₂	1.1	0.07
			C₂₃	1.3	0.09
			C₂₄	1.2	0.11
			C₂₅	1.5	0.16
			C₂₆	1.3	0.21
			C₂₇	1.4	0.3
B₃	1.2	0.11	C₃₁	1.0	0.1
			C₃₂	1.4	0.14
			C₃₃	1.2	0.16
			C₃₄	1.6	0.26
			C₃₅	1.3	0.34
B₄	1.3	0.15	C₄₁	1.0	0.09
			C₄₂	1.2	0.11
			C₄₃	1.1	0.12
			C₄₄	1.3	0.16
			C₄₅	1.4	0.22
			C₄₆	1.4	0.3
B₅	1.4	0.21	C₅₁	1.0	0.19
			C₅₂	1.1	0.21
			C₅₃	1.3	0.27
			C₅₄	1.2	0.33
B₆	1.6	0.34	C₆₁	1.0	0.25
			C₆₂	1.4	0.34
			C₆₃	1.2	0.41

评估指标	专家								平均分 F_i	相对 ω_i	信息熵 e_j	客观权重 ω_j	组合权重 ω'
评估指标	专家1	专家2	专家3	专家4	专家5	专家6	专家7	专家8	平均分 F_i	相对 ω_i	信息熵 e_j	客观权重 ω_j	组合权重 ω'
C₁₁	9	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8.000	0.003	0.301	0.029	0.005
C₁₂	9	8	8	9	8	8	9	8	8.375	0.004	0.311	0.029	0.006
C₁₃	9	8	8	9	8	8	9	8	8.375	0.006	0.311	0.029	0.008
C₁₄	8	8	9	9	8	9	9	8	8.500	0.008	0.314	0.028	0.010
C₁₅	9	9	8	8	8	7	9	9	8.375	0.012	0.310	0.029	0.013
C₁₆	9	9	8	9	8	9	9	8	8.500	0.021	0.314	0.028	0.022
C₁₇	9	9	8	9	8	9	9	8	8.625	0.036	0.317	0.028	0.035
C₂₁	7	7	8	8	7	8	7	7	7.375	0.004	0.285	0.030	0.006
C₂₂	7	8	8	7	7	8	8	8	7.625	0.005	0.291	0.029	0.007
C₂₃	7	8	7	8	6	8	8	7	7.375	0.008	0.284	0.030	0.010
C₂₄	8	8	7	8	8	8	7	8	7.750	0.013	0.295	0.029	0.015
C₂₅	9	7	8	7	8	8	7	8	7.750	0.018	0.294	0.029	0.019
C₂₆	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	8	7.875	0.028	0.298	0.029	0.028
C₂₇	7	7	7	8	7	8	8	8	7.500	0.050	0.288	0.030	0.048
C₃₁	5	4	4	4	6	6	5	6	5.000	0.013	0.215	0.033	0.014
C₃₂	4	5	6	4	5	4	5	6	4.875	0.018	0.211	0.033	0.020
C₃₃	4	5	5	6	4	4	5	5	4.750	0.029	0.207	0.033	0.030
C₃₄	4	5	6	5	6	6	6	5	5.375	0.044	0.227	0.033	0.043
C₃₅	5	5	6	4	4	4	6	5	4.875	0.057	0.211	0.033	0.055
C₄₁	5	6	6	4	5	5	5	4	5.000	0.019	0.215	0.033	0.021
C₄₂	5	6	6	5	5	4	5	4	5.000	0.019	0.215	0.033	0.021
C₄₃	6	5	5	6	5	4	5	5	5.125	0.027	0.219	0.032	0.028
C₄₄	5	4	5	4	4	5	5	5	4.625	0.035	0.204	0.033	0.035
C₄₅	5	5	4	4	5	4	5	6	4.750	0.039	0.207	0.033	0.038
C₄₆	4	4	5	5	5	6	5	5	4.875	0.058	0.212	0.033	0.056
C₅₁	4	5	4	5	5	4	4	4	4.375	0.042	0.196	0.033	0.040
C₅₂	5	4	4	5	4	4	5	5	4.500	0.046	0.200	0.033	0.045
C₅₃	5	4	5	4	5	4	4	4	4.375	0.055	0.196	0.033	0.053
C₅₄	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	4.375	0.072	0.195	0.033	0.068
C₆₁	4	4	5	4	4	4	4	3	4.000	0.063	0.183	0.033	0.060
C₆₂	4	4	4	4	5	4	4	4	4.125	0.069	0.187	0.033	0.066
C₆₃	4	4	4	5	5	4	4	3	4.125	0.083	0.187	0.033	0.078

评估等级	等级描述	评估区间	期望值	熵	超熵
Ⅰ级	危险	[0,2)	1	0.85	0.06
Ⅱ级	较危险	[2,4)	3	0.85	0.06
Ⅲ级	一般安全	[4,6)	5	0.85	0.06
Ⅳ级	较安全	[6,8)	7	0.85	0.06
Ⅴ级	安全	[8,10)	9	0.85	0.06

一级指标	(E_x,E_n,H_e)	二级指标	(E_x,E_n,H_e)
B₁	(8.49,0.06,0.53)	C₁₁	(8.00,0.31,0.13)
		C₁₂	(8.38,0.59,0.52)
		C₁₃	(8.38,0.59,0.52)
		C₁₄	(8.50,0.63,0.56)
		C₁₅	(8.38,0.78,0.55)
		C₁₆	(8.50,0.63,0.56)
		C₁₇	(8.63,0.59,0.52)
B₂	(7.60,0.07,0.50)	C₂₁	(7.38,0.59,0.52)
		C₂₂	(7.63,0.59,0.52)
		C₂₃	(7.38,0.78,0.55)
		C₂₄	(7.75,0.47,0.42)
		C₂₅	(7.75,0.71,0.50)
		C₂₆	(7.88,0.27,0.24)
		C₂₇	(7.50,0.63,0.56)
B₃	(5.00,0.13,0.47)	C₃₁	(5.00,0.94,0.39)
		C₃₂	(4.88,0.82,0.44)
		C₃₃	(4.75,0.71,0.50)
		C₃₄	(5.38,0.78,0.55)
		C₃₅	(4.88,0.82,0.44)
B₄	(4.86,0.12,0.40)	C₄₁	(5.00,0.63,0.26)
		C₄₂	(5.00,0.63,0.26)
		C₄₃	(5.13,0.55,0.36)
		C₄₄	(4.63,0.59,0.52)
		C₄₅	(4.75,0.71,0.50)
		C₄₆	(4.88,0.55,0.36)
B₅	(4.40,0.12,0.53)	C₅₁	(4.38,0.59,0.52)
		C₅₂	(4.50,0.63,0.56)
		C₅₃	(4.38,0.59,0.52)
		C₅₄	(4.38,0.59,0.52)
B₆	(4.10,0.08,0.28)	C₆₁	(4.00,0.31,0.13)
		C₆₂	(4.13,0.27,0.24)
		C₆₃	(4.13,0.55,0.36)