城市无人机坠落对地面交通的风险评估方法

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.0906

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为全面评估城市无人机(UAV)坠落对于地面交通的风险,提出一种“理论分析+仿真试验”的系统风险评估方法。首先,构建城市空-地交通网络结构,考虑无人机与地面车辆的动态性,以及空-地交通网络的流量特征,运用理论推导,得出可能的地面交通风险区间;其次,开展蒙特卡罗仿真试验,得到基于试验统计结果的地面交通风险值;然后,将理论分析与仿真试验分析相结合,综合评估无人机坠落对地面交通的风险;最后,以天津市为例开展仿真案例研究。结果表明:无人机坠落对地面交通的风险受坠机概率、地面交通密度、空中路网结构等多个因素影响;仿真试验的统计风险值与理论分析风险区间相符,初步验证了所提方法的合理性。

关键词: 无人机(UAV)坠落, 地面交通, 风险评估, 风险区间, 蒙特卡罗仿真

Abstract:

In order to comprehensively assess the risk of urban UAVs falling onto ground transportation, a systematic risk assessment method combining theoretical derivation and simulation experiments was proposed. Firstly, the urban air-ground traffic network structure was constructed. Considering the dynamics of UAVs and ground vehicles, as well as the traffic flow characteristics of the air-ground traffic network, theoretical derivation was used to determine the possible ground traffic risk interval. Secondly, Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to obtain the ground traffic risk value based on the statistical results of the test. Then, the theoretical analysis and simulation test analysis were combined to comprehensively evaluate the risk of UAVs falling to ground traffic. Finally, a simulation case study was carried out in Tianjin. The results show that the risk of UAVs falling on ground traffic is affected by several factors such as crash probability, ground traffic density, and the structure of the air road network. The statistical risk value of the simulation test is consistent with the theoretical analysis of the risk interval, which preliminarily verifies the reasonableness of the proposed method.

Key words: unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) falls, ground traffic, risk assessment, risk interval, Monte Carlo simulation

中图分类号:

李航, 韩凤, 胡小兵. 城市无人机坠落对地面交通的风险评估方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(6): 157-164.

LI Hang, HAN Feng, HU Xiaobing. Risk assessment method of urban UAVs falling onto ground transportation[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(6): 157-164.

图/表 9

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

表1

表2

风险评估结果(f=1/10 000)

时间段	仿真结果R_s/ 10^-4	理论分析结果
时间段	仿真结果R_s/ 10^-4	$R l$	$R m$ /10^-4	$R h$ /10^-3
8:00—9:00	4.50	0	11.30	17.30
9:00—10:00	1.42	0	9.78	15.00
10:00—11:00	2.33	0	3.25	5.40
11:00—12:00	2.67	0	8.27	12.60
12:00—13:00	5.56	0	8.26	12.50
13:00—14:00	1.50	0	3.27	5.21
14:00—15:00	0	0	3.54	5.36
15:00—16:00	0.61	0	3.51	5.42
16:00—17:00	1.22	0	3.28	5.15
17:00—18:00	1.33	0	13.60	20.60
18:00—19:00	4.25	0	13.60	20.70
19:00—20:00	6.11	0	3.29	5.18
加和	31.50	0	84.95	130.42

表2

图6

图7

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