水电工程施工安全事故致因重要性多证据融合综合评价

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.03.0795

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为确定水电工程施工安全事故的主要致因,采取有针对性的安全防范措施减少安全隐患,降低安全事故发生概率,提出事故致因重要性的多证据融合模糊综合评价方法。收集306例典型事故案例,进行致因分析,归纳提炼人、物、管理、环境4类风险因素下的23项事故致因指标,构建安全事故致因评价指标体系;采用区间层次分析法(IAHP)、模糊集评价方法,分别确定风险因素和致因指标权重,进而建立基于专家群决策和D-S证据融合理论的多证据综合评价模型,并进行实例分析。结果表明:人的因素和物的因素是导致事故发生的主要因素;违章作业、处于不安全位置、冒险心理、无防护措施、使用不安全措施等事故致因所占权重较大;在采取安全防控措施时,应重点考虑上述因素。

关键词: 水电工程, 施工安全, 事故致因, 重要性, D-S证据融合, 综合评价

Abstract:

In order to determine the main causes of construction safety accidents in hydroelectric projects, take targeted safety precautions to reduce potential safety hazards and reduce the probability of safety accidents, a multi-evidence fusion fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for the importance of accident causes was proposed. A total of 306 typical accident cases were collected for cause analysis, and 23 accident cause indexes under fourrisk factors of human, material, management and environment were summarized to construct the evaluation index system of safety accident cause. The interval analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) and fuzzy set evaluation method were used to determine the weights of risk factors and cause indexes respectively, and then a multi-evidence comprehensive evaluation model based on expert group decision making and Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence fusion theory was established, and an example analysis was carried out. The results show that human factors and material factors are the main factors leading to accidents, the causes of accidents such as illegal operation, unsafe position, risk-taking psychology, no protective measures, and the use of unsafe measures account for a large weight, when taking safety prevention and control measures, the above factors should be considered.

Key words: hydropower engineering, construction safety, accident causes, importance, Dempster-Shafer(D-S) evidence fusion, comprehensive evaluation

周诗杰, 刘东海, 金睿. 水电工程施工安全事故致因重要性多证据融合综合评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(3): 103-110.

ZHOU Shijie, LIU Donghai, JIN Rui. Multi-evidence fusion comprehensive evaluation of importance of safety accident causation in hydropower project construction[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(3): 103-110.

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标度	含义
1	表示2个因素相比,具有同等重要性
3	表示2个因素相比,前者比后者稍微重要
5	表示2个因素相比,前者比后者明显重要
7	表示2个因素相比,前者比后者强烈重要
9	表示2个因素相比,前者比后者极端重要
2,4,6,8	表示上述相邻判断标度的中间值

专家	A	B₁	B₂	B₃	B₄	α, β	M_ij(k)
1	B₁	[1,1]	[3,4]	[3,5]	[3,4]	α=0.914 β=1.041	[0.282 8, 0.336 9]
	B₂	[1/4,1/3]	[1,1]	[1,3]	[4,5]		[0.253 5, 0.297 2]
	B₃	[1/5,1/3]	[1/3,1]	[1,1]	[4,5]		[0.250 2, 0.278 6]
	B₄	[1/4,1/3]	[1/5,1/4]	[1/5,1/4]	[1,1]		[0.127 1, 0.128 7]
2	B₁	[1,1]	[3,5]	[3,5]	[4,6]	α=0.912 β=1.045	[0.302 3, 0.366 7]
	B₂	[1/5,1/3]	[1,1]	[3,4]	[3,5]		[0.259 6, 0.305 8]
	B₃	[1/5,1/3]	[1/4,1/3]	[1,1]	[3,4]		[0.221 6, 0.244 6]
	B₄	[1/6,1/4]	[1/5,1/3]	[1/4,1/3]	[1,1]		[0.127 8, 0.128 1]
3	B₁	[1,1]	[2,3]	[5,6]	[7,8]	α=0.949 β=1.035	[0.333 3, 0.362 1]
	B₂	[1/3,1/2]	[1,1]	[4,5]	[6,7]		[0.301 8, 0.329 3]
	B₃	[1/6,1/5]	[1/5,1/4]	[1,1]	[3,4]		[0.199 2, 0.227 4]
	B₄	[1/8,1/7]	[1/7,1/6]	[1/4,1/3]	[1,1]		[0.114 5, 0.116 0]
4	B₁	[1,1]	[1,2]	[5,6]	[7,8]	α=0.922 β=1.069	[0.332 2, 0.380 7]
	B₂	[1/2,1]	[1,1]	[3,4]	[5,6]		[0.274 2, 0.322 4]
	B₃	[1/6,1/5]	[1/4,1/3]	[1,1]	[3,4]		[0.200 5, 0.242 0]
	B₄	[1/8,1/7]	[1/6,1/5]	[1/4,1/3]	[1,1]		[0.115 4, 0.123 7]
5	B₁	[1,1]	[5,7]	[4,5]	[4,6]	α=0.932 β=1.019	[0.341 0, 0.356 5]
	B₂	[1/7,1/5]	[1,1]	[1/7,1/5]	[1,3]		[0.147 7, 0.195 7]
	B₃	[1/5,1/4]	[5,7]	[1,1]	[4,6]		[0.314 7, 0.334 5]
	B₄	[1/6,1/4]	[1/3,1]	[1/6,1/4]	[1,1]		[0.128 4, 0.132 6]

A	d₁₂	d₁₃	d₁₄	d₁₅	d₂₃	d₂₄	d₂₅	d₃₄	d₃₅	d₄₅
B₁	0.049 0	0.037 8	0.046 6	0.038 9	0.011 1	0.002 4	0.014 2	0.009 8	0.006 7	0.016 5
B₂	0.049 2	0.040 2	0.023 0	0.103 6	0.009 0	0.026 3	0.152 8	0.017 3	0.143 9	0.126 6
B₃	0.093 2	0.051 1	0.043 1	0.060 2	0.042 1	0.050 1	0.153 4	0.008 0	0.111 3	0.103 3
B₄	0.015 0	0.012 7	0.008 4	0.002 6	0.027 7	0.023 4	0.012 4	0.004 3	0.015 3	0.011 0

A	S_i(1)	S_i(2)	S_i(3)	S_i(4)	S_i(5)	ρ_i(1)	ρ_i(2)	ρ_i(3)	ρ_i(4)	ρ_i(5)
B₁	0.958 7	0.981 2	0.983 9	0.981 5	0.981 3	0.196 2	0.200 8	0.201 3	0.200 9	0.200 8
B₂	0.948 8	0.944 0	0.950 0	0.954 0	0.883 6	0.202 7	0.201 7	0.203 0	0.203 8	0.188 8
B₃	0.941 7	0.921 9	0.949 5	0.951 3	0.903 3	0.201 7	0.197 5	0.203 4	0.203 8	0.193 5
B₄	0.990 4	0.980 8	0.985 2	0.988 4	0.989 8	0.200 7	0.198 8	0.199 7	0.200 3	0.200 6

评价指标	评价等级/不确定度										评价指标	评价等级/不确定度
评价指标	专家1		专家2		专家3		专家4		专家5		评价指标	专家1		专家2		专家3		专家4		专家5
C₁₁	H	0.1	H	0.1	H	0.15	VL	0.2	M	0.1	C₃₁	M	0.15	M	0.1	L	0.2	VL	0.2	H	0.1
C₁₂	VH	0.05	VH	0.05	H	0.05	H	0.05	H	0.15	C₃₂	VH	0.1	M	0.1	H	0.1	VH	0.05	H	0.1
C₁₃	VH	0.15	M	0.2	H	0.1	H	0.1	VH	0.1	C₃₃	H	0.1	M	0.1	H	0.1	VH	0.05	H	0.2
C₁₄	M	0.15	H	0.15	H	0.05	M	0.1	M	0.1	C₃₄	M	0.2	H	0.2	M	0.2	H	0.1	M	0.2
C₁₅	VH	0.05	H	0.15	H	0.05	M	0.1	VH	0.1	C₃₅	H	0.15	H	0.2	L	0.2	H	0.1	M	0.1
C₁₆	H	0.1	H	0.1	H	0.05	H	0.05	M	0.15	C₄₁	M	0.2	H	0.1	H	0.15	VL	0.2	M	0.15
C₂₁	VH	0.1	M	0.15	H	0.1	H	0.05	H	0.1	C₄₂	H	0.1	M	0.2	M	0.15	H	0.15	M	0.2
C₂₂	H	0.15	H	0.1	VH	0.05	L	0.2	H	0.1	C₄₃	H	0.1	M	0.15	M	0.1	H	0.05	M	0.1
C₂₃	VH	0.15	VH	0.15	VH	0.05	VH	0.05	H	0.15	C₄₄	M	0.15	M	0.15	L	0.1	L	0.1	M	0.15
C₂₄	H	0.1	M	0.15	M	0.1	VH	0.15	M	0.2	C₄₅	H	0.1	H	0.1	M	0.15	VL	0.05	M	0.2
C₂₅	H	0.1	M	0.2	H	0.1	H	0.15	M	0.1	C₄₆	M	0.15	H	0.1	M	0.2	M	0.05	H	0.1
C₂₆	H	0.2	H	0.15	H	0.2	M	0.2	M	0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—