事故致因“2-4”模型的传播与学术影响力研究*

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.03.1165

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

事故致因“2-4”模型(24Model)作为中国原创的系统性事故致因理论,自2005年以来,在国内安全领域得到广泛应用,但缺乏对其理论与应用趋势的综述研究。基于系统文献综述和元分析报告项目指南(PRISMA)框架,进行系统检索与分层筛选,采用范围性综述方法对筛选出的357篇中英文文献进行结构化编码与数据采集,并开展交叉分析及卡方检验等数据分析。结果表明:对24Model的研究呈现持续增长态势,并开始在世界范围内传播;应用领域从煤矿行业向化工等复杂系统行业拓展;应用模式实现从定性分析向定量建模、从事后分析向事前预防、从传统方法向数智化技术的转变;系统性模型在第5、6版中得到发展和完善,为复杂系统安全分析提供了新的理论框架,并建议24Model未来可在模型系统性理论深化、预防性应用创新、数智化技术融合等方向持续开展研究。

关键词: 事故致因, “2-4”模型(24Model), 事故分析, 数智化应用, 风险辨识

Abstract:

The 24Model, as an original and systematic accident causation theory in China, has been widely applied in the field of safety science since 2005. However, a comprehensive review of its theoretical development and application trends is still lacking. A systematic search and stratified screening were conducted based on the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) framework. A scoping review approach was employed to perform structured coding and data extraction from the 357 screened Chinese- and English-language publications. Subsequently, data analyses, including cross-tabulation analysis and chi-square tests, were carried out. The results indicate that research on the 24Model has shown a sustained growth trend and has begun to disseminate globally. Its application domains have expanded from the coal mining industry to complex system industries such as the chemical sector. In addition, application paradigms have evolved from qualitative analysis to quantitative modeling, from post-accident analysis to proactive prevention, and from traditional analytical approaches to digital and intelligent technologies. The systematic model has been further developed and refined in the fifth and sixth editions, providing a new theoretical framework for safety analysis in complex systems. This study suggests that future research on the 24Model may continue to focus on deepening its systematic theoretical foundations, innovating preventive applications, and integrating digital and intelligent technologies.

Key words: accident causation, "2-4"model(24Model), accident analysis, digital and intelligent applications, risk identification

中图分类号:

X913安全系统学

路禹轩, 杨春, 韩梦, 袁晨辉, 赵金坤, 解学才. 事故致因“2-4”模型的传播与学术影响力研究^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2026, 36(3): 49-57.

LU Yuxuan, YANG Chun, HAN Meng, YUAN Chenhui, ZHAO Jinkun, XIE Xuecai. Study on dissemination and academic influence of 24Model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(3): 49-57.

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序号	审查信息	描述
1	论文的基本信息	论文的发表时间、作者、关键词等基本信息
2	所属行业	根据文献[16]的类别划分方法对所属行业进行分类。允许不同类别同时出现
3	24Model的版本	根据文中使用的24Model的版本进行统计
4	模型的系统性应用	根据文中是否使用了24Model的系统特性进行研究进行判断
5	24Model的应用类型	根据文中对于24Model具体应用可以分为事故分析、风险辨识、模型研究、模型数智化应用、安全文化和其他。允许不同类别同时出现
6	事故分析的类别	根据文中应用24Model对事故分析的数量和方法分为统计分析、单起事故分析、应用数学模型量化分析。允许不同类别同时出现