基于改进功能共振分析法的SPO风险演化

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.06.1428

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为充分识别单一飞行员运行(SPO)模式下各子系统要素间的交互关系和耦合作用,梳理风险演化机制,使用改进功能共振分析法(FRAM)构建定量分析模型。采用模糊综合评判法评估系统功能模块的功能可变性;引入结构重要性概念,分析计算系统功能模块的上下游耦合变异性,厘清系统各功能要素间耦合作用影响机制;针对SPO特定场景案例,应用蒙特卡罗模拟法计算功能共振风险指数,分析潜在功能共振情况,并设置有效功能屏障。结果表明:改进的FRAM法可以解释SPO的非线性耦合情况,空中交通管制服务、飞行员认知状态、机长操纵等模块的功能可变性耦合变化指数较大,均超过2.5;进近着陆场景中机组技术培训、重要气象信息、空中交通管制服务、地面信息保障等8个功能容易出现功能共振情况;结合功能共振结果,设置物理、象征、功能、隐形种功能安全屏障措施,并以此得出针对性运行保障建议。

关键词: 功能共振分析法(FRAM), 单一飞行员运行(SPO), 风险演化, 耦合变化, 功能可变性

Abstract:

To fully identify the interaction and coupling effects between the subsystem elements in SPO mode, an improved FRAM was developed to propose a quantitative analysis model based on the risk evolution mechanism. Firstly, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the functional variability of system functional modules. Then, the concept of structural importance was introduced to analyze upstream and downstream coupling variability of functional modules of the computational system and determine the coupling effect mechanism between various functional elements of the system. Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation method was used to calculate the functional resonance risk index for SPO-specific scenarios, analyze potential functional resonance situations, and set effective functional barriers. The results showed that the improved functional resonance analysis method can explain the nonlinear coupling situation of SPO. The functional variability coupling change index of modules such as air traffic control and services, pilot cognitive state, and captain control was relatively high with a value of more than 2.5. In the approach and landing scenario, eight functions (e.g., crew technical training, important meteorological information, air traffic control services, and ground information support) were prone to functional resonance. Combined with the functional resonance results, the physical, symbolic, functional, and invisible functional safety barrier measures were set to provide specific operational suggestions.

Key words: functional resonance analysis method (FRAM), single pilot operation (SPO), risk evolution, coupling changes, functional variability

中图分类号:

X949

时统宇, 马煜森, 曹宇杰, 付宇翔, 王岩韬. 基于改进功能共振分析法的SPO风险演化[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(6): 29-38.

SHI Tongyu, MA Yusen, CAO Yujie, FU Yuxiang, WANG Yantao. SPO risk evolution based on improved functional resonance analysis method[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(6): 29-38.

图/表 16

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图4

表1

功能变化时间/精度得分

功能可变性指标	定义	评分
时间变化 $V T$	准时	1
	过早	2
	过晚	3
	不发生	4
精度变化 $V P$	精确	1
	可接受	2
	不精确	3

表1

表2

表3

图5

表4

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表7

图6

表8

表9

表10

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功能可变性指标	定义	输入I	资源R	前提P	时间T	控制C
时间输出变化	准时	阻尼	阻尼	阻尼	阻尼	阻尼
	过早	无影响	阻尼	阻尼	放大	放大
	过晚	放大	放大	放大	放大	放大
	不发生	放大	放大	放大	放大	放大
精度输出变化	精确	阻尼	阻尼	阻尼	阻尼	阻尼
	可接受	无影响	无影响	无影响	无影响	无影响
	不精确	放大	放大	放大	放大	放大

功能名称	进行程序转弯
描述	由输入操纵飞机进行程序转弯
输入I	飞机操纵动作指令已完成
输出O	程序转弯已完成
前提条件P	已检查进近检查单
资源R	无
控制C	无
时间T	无

要素	S₁	S₂	S₃	S₄	S₅	S₆	S₇	S₈	S₉	S₁₀
层级	10	10	9	8	9	9	11	10	8	6
要素	S₁₁	S₁₂	S₁₃	S₁₄	S₁₅	S₁₆	S₁₇	S₁₈	S₁₉	S₂₀
层级	6	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	3	3

功能模块	S₁	S₂	S₃	S₄	S₅	S₆	S₇	S₈	S₉	S₁₀
结构重要度	0.042 9	0.056 7	0.027 4	0.038 7	0.034 7	0.071 3	0.119 2	0.093 2	0.060 3	0.027 8
功能模块	S₁₁	S₁₂	S₁₃	S₁₄	S₁₅	S₁₆	S₁₇	S₁₈	S₁₉	S₂₀
结构重要度	0.018 6	0.069 4	0.014 1	0.029 4	0.013 8	0.024 1	0.010 1	0.006 0	0.001 2	0.001 2

模块	时间变化概率				精度变化概率
模块	适时	过早	过迟	未发生	精确	可接受	不精确
S₁	0.75	0.15	0.08	0.02	0.76	0.17	0.07
S₂	0.71	0.20	0.05	0.04	0.83	0.12	0.05
S₃	0.65	0.21	0.12	0.02	0.76	0.21	0.03
︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙
S₁₉	0.72	0.12	0.14	0.02	0.61	0.27	0.12
S₂₀	0.66	0.18	0.11	0.05	0.52	0.38	0.10