China Safety Science Journal ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (7): 19-26.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.07.004

• Safety social science and safety management • Previous Articles     Next Articles

DBN-based monitoring method of vaccine transportation quality and safety risk

XIE Xiaoliang1,2, CHU Qi1,2, ZHANG Shujun3, WEI Guo4, CHENG Jiaqi1,2   

  1. 1 School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha Hunan 410205, China;
    2 Key Laboratory of Hunan Province for Statistical Learning and Intelligent Computation, Changsha Hunan 410205, China;
    3 Hunan Province Center for Discase Control and Prevention, Changsha Hunan 410005, China;
    4 Department of Mathematics & Computer Science, University of North Carolina at Pembroke, Pembroke 28372, USA
  • Received:2020-04-10 Revised:2020-06-08 Online:2020-07-28 Published:2021-07-15

Abstract: In order to identify, measure and respond to two major risks of cold chain control and flow tracing, vaccine transportation process was modeled as a complex dynamic system, and by analyzing influencing factors of vaccine quality and safety risks during transportation, an evaluation index system was constructed in which vaccine procurement, storage, distribution, and loading were determined as key elements in risk chain. Secondly, a vaccine TQSRA model was developed based on DBN. 328 cases of vaccine safety incidents since 2009 were selected from OpenLaw website for statistical data learning by using GeNIe 2.0 visualization software, and an empirical study was conducted to examine validity and sensitivity of proposed TQSRA model. Finally, critical sensitive linkages of quality and safety risks during transportation were explored, and focuses of prevention and control were clarified. The results show that quality of cold chain transport vehicles and storage facilities, comprehensive quality of vaccine practitioners, and entire record and inspection of transport information are main factors affecting vaccine transportation quality and safety supervision. And TQSRA model is proved to be a stable, practical and effective assessment method.

Key words: vaccine transportation, dynamic Bayesian network(DBN), sensitivity analysis, transportation quality and safety risk assessment(TQSRA), monitoring

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