DBN-based monitoring method of vaccine transportation quality and safety risk

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.07.004

Abstract

Abstract: In order to identify, measure and respond to two major risks of cold chain control and flow tracing, vaccine transportation process was modeled as a complex dynamic system, and by analyzing influencing factors of vaccine quality and safety risks during transportation, an evaluation index system was constructed in which vaccine procurement, storage, distribution, and loading were determined as key elements in risk chain. Secondly, a vaccine TQSRA model was developed based on DBN. 328 cases of vaccine safety incidents since 2009 were selected from OpenLaw website for statistical data learning by using GeNIe 2.0 visualization software, and an empirical study was conducted to examine validity and sensitivity of proposed TQSRA model. Finally, critical sensitive linkages of quality and safety risks during transportation were explored, and focuses of prevention and control were clarified. The results show that quality of cold chain transport vehicles and storage facilities, comprehensive quality of vaccine practitioners, and entire record and inspection of transport information are main factors affecting vaccine transportation quality and safety supervision. And TQSRA model is proved to be a stable, practical and effective assessment method.

Key words: vaccine transportation, dynamic Bayesian network(DBN), sensitivity analysis, transportation quality and safety risk assessment(TQSRA), monitoring

CLC Number:

X924.2

XIE Xiaoliang, CHU Qi, ZHANG Shujun, WEI Guo, CHENG Jiaqi. DBN-based monitoring method of vaccine transportation quality and safety risk[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(7): 19-26.

References

[1] 中华人民共和国国务院.中华人民共和国疫苗管理法[L].2019-12-01.
[2] 冷光颖.近年疫苗安全事件原因及疫苗监管工作分析[J].中国管理信息化,2020,23(3): 183-185.
LENG Guangying. Causes of vaccine safety incidents and analysis of vaccine supervision work in recent years [J].China Management Informatization, 2020, 23(3): 183-185.
[3] 黄懿慧,王啸,方慧妍,等.政府信任对公共健康风险管理的影响:基于长生生物疫苗事件的创设情境研究[J].公共管理学报,2019,16(4): 83-95.
HUANG Yihui, WANG Xiao, FANG Huiyan, et al. The impact of government trust on the public health risk management: an empirical study based on changsheng bio-technology vaccine incident[J]. Journal of Public Management, 2019, 16(4): 83-95.
[4] 李向群,任凤兰,郑海发.疫苗运输稳定性的研究进展[J].中国生物制品学杂志,2019,32(10): 1 172-1 176.
LI Xiangqun, REN Fenglan, ZHENG Haifa. Research progress in vaccine transport stability [J]. Chinese Journal of Biologicals, 2019, 32(10): 1 172-1 176.
[5] NG C Z, LEAN Y L, YEOH S F, et al. Cold chain time- and temperature-controlled transport of vaccines: a simulated experimental study[J]. Clinical and Experimental Vaccine Research, 2020, 9(1): 121-154.
[6] 汪旭光,王尹军.构建“互联网+大数据”模式大力提升危险化学品管控和应急救援能力[J].中国消防,2017,38(4): 53-57.
WANG Xuguang, WANG Yinjun. Building the "Internet + big data" model to greatly improve the ability of hazardous chemicals control and emergency rescue [J]. China Fire, 2017,38(4): 53-57.
[7] 方国良,辛光成,王琳,等.安全冷链运输箱转移系统在疫苗冷链运输中的应用研究[J].中国疫苗和免疫,2016,22(5): 582-585.
FANG Guoliang, XIN Guangcheng, WANG Lin, et al. Application study of a transfer system of safe cold chain transport boxes in cold chain transport of vaccine [J]. Chinese Journal of Vaccines and Immunization, 2016, 22(5): 582-585.
[8] 方东平,张剑,黄吉欣.建筑安全管理的目标和手段[J].清华大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2005,20(1): 86-89.
FANG Dongping, ZHANG Jian, HUANG Jixin. The vision and approaches for construction safe management [J]. Journal of Tsinghua University: Philosophy and Social Sciences, 2005, 20(1): 86-89.
[9] 刘晓欣,林瑞超,杨春宁,等.中国疫苗安全监管现状、问题及对策[J].中国公共卫生管理,2017,33(2): 192-195.
LIU Xiaoxin, LIN Ruichao, YANG Chunning, et al. Supervision, problems and countermeasures on vaccine safety in China [J].Chinese Journal of Public Health Management, 2017, 33(2): 192-195.
[10] 田素霞.疫苗冷链运输过程中的质量风险管理研究[J].中国当代医药,2018,25(17): 164-168.
TIAN Suxia. Quality risk management study for vaccine cold chain transport [J].China Modern Medicine, 2018, 25(17): 164-168.
[11] 袁平,郑景山,曹雷,等.世界卫生组织有效疫苗管理方法试点评估分析[J].中国疫苗和免疫,2016,21(6): 671-675.
YUAN Ping, ZHENG Jingshan, CAO Lei, et al. Pilot study on effective vaccine management tool recommended by world health organization [J]. Chinese Journal of Vaccines and Immunization, 2016, 21(6): 671-675.
[12] 罗军华,林孝松,牟凤云,等.山区公路暴雨-洪水灾害链贝叶斯网络建模推理[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(12): 1-6.
LUO Junhua, LING Xiaosong, MU Fengyun, et al. Inference modeling of mountain highway rainstorm-flood disaster chain based on bayesian network [J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(12): 1-6.
[13] 陈群,黄骞,陈哲,等.基于贝叶斯网络的地铁工程系统韧性评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(11): 98-103.
CHEN Qun, HUANG Qian, CHEN Zhe, et al. Quantitative evaluation of resilience of metro engineering system based on bayesian networks [J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(11): 98-103.
[14] 陈伟炯,范雯,朱小林,等.乳制品冷链物流风险评估的DBN方法研究[J].系统仿真学报,2019,31(5): 936-945.
CHEN Weijiong, FAN Wen, ZHU Xiaolin, et al. DBN method for risk assessment of dairy products cold chain logistics [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2019, 31 (5): 936-945.
[15] 赵鲁炎,马峻.利用动态贝叶斯网络实现人群聚集风险分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(7): 157-162.
ZHAO Luyan, MA Jun. Risk analysis of stampede by dynamic bayesian network [J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27 (7): 157-162.
[16] 国家卫生计生委,食品药品监管总局.疫苗储存和运输管理规范[L].2017-12-15.
[17] 冯长根,李杰,李生才.层次分析法在中国安全科学研究中的应用[J].安全与环境学报,2018,18(6): 2 126-2 130.
FENG Changgen, LI Jie, LI Shengcai. Application of the analytical hierarchy process method to the safety science research in China[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2018, 18(6): 2 126-2 130.
[18] AS/NZS 4360-2004,Australian / New Zealand standard for risk management [S].
[19] 何奔,向泽林,陈中文,等.预防接种门诊接种风险评估研究[J].预防医学,2016,28(8): 776-780.
HE Ben, XIANG Zelin, CHEN Zhongwen, et al. A study on the integrated application of risk matrix and analytic hierarchy process in risk assessment of vaccination operation [J]. Prophylactic Medicine, 2016, 28(8): 776-780.