Scenario deduction and analysis for spillover risks of international sports events under influence of COVID-19

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.04.001

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to improve risk prevention and control capabilities for international sports events under the background of COVID-19, case data of 23 international sports since the pandemic outbreak were collected, and an evolutionary network model with COVID-19 as risk source was established. Then, risk analysis on the model was carried out based on in-and-out degree, number of sub-net nodes, the shortest path and average path of complex network theory, key risk event nodes were identified, and preventive measures were put forward. Finally, critical chains were obtained by analyzing causal mechanism and types of risk chains, and countermeasures and suggestions for chain disconnection and disaster mitigation were put forward. The results show that severe epidemic situation and rising risk of virus transmission in host cities are the key nodes in evolutionary network, and cycle chain of political relations and public opinion is the most destructive one. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the development of a public opinion monitoring system and strengthen positive publicity of sports events.

Key words: corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19), international sports events, spillover risk, evolutionary network, risk chain, scenario deduction

FANG Danhui, XU Simin, XU Hongqian, XU Miao, HU Ziyao, ZHOU Min. Scenario deduction and analysis for spillover risks of international sports events under influence of COVID-19[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(4): 1-7.

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风险事件	风险级别	出入度	风险事件	风险级别	出入度
新冠肺炎疫情	风险源	4/0	观赛意愿下降	二级	1/1
全球经济下滑	一级	1/1	现场观众人数限制	二级	1/1
个人收入降低	二级	1/1	训练条件受限	二级	1/1
消费需求下降	二级	2/2	特殊设备交接受阻	二级	1/1
赛事收益降低	三级	0/4	影响比赛筹备进度	三级	0/3
赞助商收益下降	二级	1/1	运动员参赛意愿下降	三级	0/3
赛事宣传减少	二级	2/1	病毒传播风险上升	一级	5/2
国际关系紧张	一级	2/2	人群骚乱	二级	2/1
赛事政治化	二级	1/1	防疫管制升级	二级	1/1
煽动“恐疫”情绪	二级	1/1	观众聚集性感染	二级	2/2
国际舆论	二级	3/4	变异病毒蔓延	二级	4/1
国外民众抵制	二级	2/2	运动员确诊	二级	2/2
网络谣言	二级	1/1	管控难度加大	二级	1/1
危及国家形象	二级	1/2	社会秩序不安	二级	2/1
举办地疫情严峻	一级	4/1	影响当地经济发展	二级	0/4
防疫政策限制	二级	6/1	赛程中断或延期	三级	0/3
人力紧缺	二级	1/2	运动员退赛	二级	2/1
参赛国退赛	二级	2/1	引发社会安全事件	三级	0/1
医疗资源有限	二级	1/1	国际关注度下降	三级	0/2
防疫成本增加	二级	1/1	—	—	—

风险事件	子网节点数	风险事件	子网节点数
全球经济下滑	7	观赛意愿下降	2
个人收入降低	6	现场观众人数限制	2
消费需求下降	5	训练条件受限	2
赛事收益降低	1	特殊设备交接受阻	2
赞助商收益下降	5	影响比赛筹备进度	1
赛事宣传减少	5	运动员参赛意愿下降	1
国际关系紧张	8	病毒传播风险上升	21
赛事政治化	8	人群骚乱	21
煽动“恐疫”情绪	8	防疫管制升级	2
国际舆论	8	观众聚集性感染	3
国外民众抵制	8	变异病毒蔓延	15
网络谣言	8	运动员确诊	12
危及国家形象	8	管控难度加大	21
举办地疫情严峻	20	社会秩序不安	3
防疫政策限制	10	影响当地经济发展	1
人力紧缺	2	赛程中断或延期	1
参赛国退赛	2	运动员退赛	10
医疗资源有限	9	引发社会安全事件	1
防疫成本增加	2	国际关注度下降	1

风险事件	最短路径个数	事件个数	平均路径个数
全球经济下滑、举办地疫情形势紧张、国际关系紧张、疫情传播风险上升	1	4	2.74
个人收入降低、防疫政策限制、人力紧缺、参赛国退赛、医疗资源有限、赛事政治化、煽动“恐疫”情绪、人群骚乱、防疫管制升级、观众聚集性感染、变异病毒蔓延、运动员确诊	2	12
消费需求下降、防疫成本增加、观赛意愿下降、现场观众人数限制、训练条件受限、特殊设备交接受阻、影响比赛筹备进度、运动员参赛意愿下降、国际舆论、管控难度加大、社会秩序不安、影响当地经济发展、赛程中断或延期、运动员退赛	3	14
赛事收益降低、赞助商收益下降、国外民众抵制、网络谣言、引发社会安全事件、国际关注度下降	4	6
赛事宣传减少、危及国家形象	5	2