Analysis of epidemic transmission in closed venues considering difference of vaccine effectiveness

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.07.2366

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to make the closed-loop managed event venues run smoothly and prevent the risk of epidemic transmission, in view of the fact that the classical infectious disease model does not consider the difference of vaccine efficacy among different populations and the actual situation of the venues, a Susceptible-Exposed-Removed (SER) infectious disease model considering high and low protective populations and removing infected persons wss proposed..Taking Delta virus as an example, some model parameters were fitted by Yangzhou epidemic data in July 2021. In this paper, The curling competition scenario was selected, and the control measures were divided into four levels considering the balance of epidemic prevention and control and the effect of the event., and the SER model was used to simulate and deduce the three epidemic input conditions. The results show that the virus spread rapidly without reasonable control measures. In the eight-day competition, there are up to hundreds of infection cases. According to different input conditions, the infection rate can be reduced by 90% through different levels of control measures, including reducing population contact, improving nucleic acid screening, and strengthening the operation control of events.

Key words: infectious disease model, vaccine effectiveness difference, closed venue, epidemic spread, control measures

FANG Danhui, ZHOU Min, HONG Hong, LI Tingyang. Analysis of epidemic transmission in closed venues considering difference of vaccine effectiveness[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(7): 121-127.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig.1

Fig.2

Tab.1

Value Range of model parameters

参数	定义	取值
$k 1$	低防护潜伏者接触环境病毒浓度	(0.2,0.3)
$k 2$	高防护潜伏者接触环境病毒浓度	(0.2,0.3)
$b 1$	低防护易感者接触环境感染概率	(0.4,0.5)
$b 2$	高防护易感者接触环境感染概率	(0.2,0.3)
$α$	潜伏者转为感染者(移出)概率	0.25

Tab.1

Fig.3

Tab.2

Deduction model parameters

参数	N	$S 1$	$S 2$	n	$k 1$
取值	1 800	900	900	10	0.25
参数	$k 2$	$b 1$	$b 2$	$α$	—
取值	0.2	0.45	0.2	0.25	—

Tab.2

Tab.3

Fig.4

Tab.4

Classification of control measures and impact of parameters

管控等级	管控措施	模型参数变化
一级管控 (常规)	赛事相关人员需要2天1次核酸检测,每天测量1次体温。密切接触人员在奥运村房间自我隔离14天,每天进行1次核酸检测,每天测量1次体温。若密切接触者有相关比赛,要求全程佩戴N95口罩(无呼吸阀)参赛。观众在全程疫苗接种满14天以及提供48 h的核酸检测报告后,仍可以进场观看比赛	常规
二级管控	赛事相关人员需要一天1次核酸检测,每天测量1次体温。密切接触人员需要统一在奥运村隔离14天,每天进行2次核酸检测,每天测量2次体温。若密切接触者有相关比赛,将会取消参赛资格。比赛场馆内将不接纳观众观赛,参赛运动员只允许随从3名赛事相关人员	$α$ = 1/3 N = 1 000 n = 8
三级管控	赛事相关人员需要一天2次核酸检测,一天2次体温测量。密切接触人员需要在奥运村外统一地点隔离14天,每天2次核酸检测,一天2次体温监测,参赛人员只允许随从1名赛事相关人员。所有的采访都采取线上提问题,线上回答	$α$ = 1/2.7 N = 1 000 n= 6
四级管控	赛事相关人员需要一天2次核酸检测, 参赛人员只允许随从1名赛事相关人员。所有的采访都采取线上提问题,线上回答。若累计8人核酸阳性,暂停比赛,所有相关人员进行隔离并检测数日	$α$ = 1/2.7 N = 800 n= 6

Tab.4

Fig.5

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输入级别	移出者总数	低防护力潜伏者	高防护力潜伏者	总感染人数
Ⅰ	29	40	18	87
Ⅱ	52	68	31	151
Ⅲ	102	124	59	285