China Safety Science Journal ›› 2022, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (9): 1-10.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.09.2742

• Safety social science and safety management •     Next Articles

Rise of precision: a review of emergency risk analysis methodology

LIU Yi(), QIAN Jing, FAN Weicheng   

  1. Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
  • Received:2022-03-14 Revised:2022-07-11 Online:2022-10-19 Published:2023-03-28

Abstract:

In order to improve the timeliness and accuracy of emergency risk analysis, this paper reviewed the development of emergency risk analysis methods through systematic literature insights. The development of emergency risk analysis methods, the research status of technologies, methods, models, and theories supporting quantitative and precise risk analysis, and the difficulties in quantifying complex emergencies and catastrophes were discussed. The results show that the future development trends of emergency risk analysis methods and theories include: studying and proposing methods to optimize qualitative, semi-quantitative, and quantitative models by using information technology such as big data of sensing monitoring and computing, developing emergency risk calculation methods based on data & model & calculation, and developing the ability of accurate risk calculation.

Key words: emergency, disaster, risk analysis, simulation and modeling, risk computing