Research on key factors and hot spots of global container shipping fatal accidents

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2700

Abstract

Abstract:

To identify the key factors and hot spots of fatal accidents during container ship shipping, using global container ship accident data from 1990 to 2015 in Information Handling Services (IHS) Sea-web database, ZINB regression model was used to evaluate the impacts of multiple accident factors on crew deaths, and then kernel density estimation was applied to visualize the hot spots of different accident factors. The findings show that collision and hull/machinery damage accidents have the highest frequency, with 32.9% and 31.3%, respectively, and foundered accidents have the lowest frequency (0.8%). The container ship shipping accident data exhibits a significant zero-expansion phenomenon, and the ZINB regression model can effectively analyze the key factors of fatal accidents. Foundered and fire/explosion accidents have the highest fatality rates, with 0.546 and 0.348, respectively, followed by collision (0.216), contact (0.127), and hull/machinery damage (0.004) accidents. The hot spots of the key factors of container ship shipping fatalities are distributed in Europe, China, Japan, Korea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Suez Canal, the Malacca Strait, and the Singapore Strait, which are traditional hot spots for ship accidents. In addition, the St. Lawrence River and the Salish Sea are newly discovered hot spots. The ZINB regression model and the kernel density estimation method can effectively identify the key factors and hotspots of shipping fatalities, respectively, and are worthy of popularization and application in maritime accident research.

Key words: container ship, fatal accidents, key factors, hot spot distribution, zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression, kernel density estimation

WANG Jinhui, ZHOU Yu, ZHUANG Lei, ZHANG Ruiqing. Research on key factors and hot spots of global container shipping fatal accidents[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(11): 154-159.

Figures/Tables 4

References 20

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因素/参数	系数	标准差		统计量		p值		95%置信区间
碰撞	2.859	1.095		2.61		0.009		(0.71, 5.00)
触碰	1.688	1.286		1.31		0.189		(-0.83, 4.20)
火灾/爆炸	4.609	1.157		3.98		0		(2.34, 6.87)
沉没	7.22		1.827		3.95		0		(3.63, 10.80)
船体/机械损坏	0.051		1.294		0.04		0.968		(-2.48, 2.58)
离散参数a	42.003		10.216		—		—		(26.07, 67.65)