China Safety Science Journal

Safety analysis of challenge response authentication in railway time synchronization network

LAN Li, WANG Xiaolin

2022, 32(11): 1-8. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2317

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In order to ensure the reliable and stable operation of the railway system and improve the safety protection capability of the railway time synchronization network, CPN was used to analyze the safety of the identity authentication of the railway time synchronization network. Firstly, based on the Autokey model of the time synchronization protocol authentication process, the CPN model of the challenge-response identity authentication process based on public parameters was established. At the same time, this model was used to analyze the possible vulnerabilities of the challenge-response mechanism based on common parameters. Secondly, a CPN model of the challenge-response process under the man-in-middle attack was established. The state equation of the model was established by using the reverse state analysis method to analyze the reachability of the insecure state of the identity authentication protocol. Finally, the safety analysis results were simulated and verified by CPN Tools. The results show that the CPN model analyzes that there are safety vulnerabilities in the process of challenge-response authentication in the railway time synchronization network, and the client lacks the verification of the source information of the challenge-response packet. As a result, the forged challenge-response packet can be authenticated by the client to achieve the purpose of manipulating the time node. The model deduces the man-in-middle attack sequence, which provides an important reference for the safety protection strategy of the railway time synchronization network.

Exploration and challenge research on personnel training for emergency technology and management specialty model in China

QIAN Hongwei, WANG Mingyue, GUO Jing, YIN Xiangju

2022, 32(11): 9-13. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.0121

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In order to improve the quality of personnel training in emergency technology and management in higher education institutions and to solve the problem of the shortage of professional emergency personnel, the "integrated and streamed education" personnel training mode was proposed in six aspects:enrollment, training and employment, curriculum system, experimental training bases, teaching and research, matching teaching materials and teachers' teams based on the real demand, national policies and discipline laws, and on the basis of tracing the relevant professional literature. The future development of emergency technology and management was prospected from four aspects:breakthrough of specialty construction, basic theory research of specialty, dual track of specialty learning, and frontier topics of emergency science strategy. The results show that the emergency technology and management professions in China are emerging professions, and there are many challenges in cultivating talents. By leveraging the integration channel, considering a professional platform, and setting up two professional teaching directions, it is helpful to integrate the faculty, improve the training mode of professional talents, and broaden the practical needs of the profession.

Influence of job stress and burnout on unsafe behaviors of construction workers

ZHOU Jianliang, HU Feixiang, XING Yandong, GAO Jiarui

2022, 32(11): 14-22. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2539

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In order to deeply explore the relationship between job stress and burnout in unsafe behaviors of construction workers, firstly, based on the work characteristics of construction workers and literature research, individual safety cognition and team safety climate were selected as mediating variables. Psychological resilience, psychological detachment and psychological capital were introduced as moderating variables to model the hypothesis of the effects of job stress and burnout on construction workers' unsafe behaviors. Questionnaire research was conducted by drawing on mature psychological scales, using SPSS 26.0 and AMOS 24.0 for reliability and validity analysis, SEM and validation of research hypotheses, and Mplus 8.0 for modeling the moderating effects of psychological moderating variables. The results show that job stress and burnout contribute significantly to construction workers' unsafe behaviors, and job stress is positively correlated with burnout. Individual safety cognition and team safety climate have significant mediating effects between job stress-unsafe behaviors and burnout-unsafe behaviors. Psychological resilience significantly negatively regulates the relationship between job stress and unsafe behaviors, psychological detachment significantly negatively regulates the relationship between burnout and unsafe behavior, and psychological capital significantly negatively regulates the relationship between job stress and burnout, that is, psychological adjustment can effectively reduce the unsafe behavior tendency of workers. It is recommended that construction companies should combine psychological adjustment measures to prevent workers' unsafe behaviors by relieving work stress, reducing burnout, improving individual safety perceptions, and improving the safety atmosphere in the work group.

Importance evaluation of organizational safety behavior in high-risk enterprises

GUO Jinping, ZHOU Guoyue, NIE Xingxin, YAN Chengyuan

2022, 32(11): 23-30. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2513

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In order to explore the structure of organizational safety behavior in high-risk enterprises comprehensively and objectively, firstly, through literature review and enterprise survey, the safety behavior of enterprise organization was divided into five first-level indicators and eighteen second-level indicators. Secondly, from the external and internal environment of the enterprise, the factors affecting the organizational safety behavior were deeply analyzed, and the comprehensive action tree model of organizational safety behavior of the enterprise was established. Finally, the interval-valued Pythagorean fuzzy set combined with TOPSIS cross-entropy and VIKOR method was used to construct a multi-attribute security decision model to evaluate the importance of organizational security behavior decision indicators in high-risk enterprises under multi-factor conditions. The results show that the internal and external environmental factors of the enterprise have a comprehensive "photosynthesis" effect, which affects the decision-making level of the enterprise's organizational safety behavior. Enterprise safety performance occupies the primary position of organizational safety behavior, and regular occupational safety and health management is the primary task of enterprise safety performance. Enterprise safety culture takes the second place, and consolidating and strengthening the construction of enterprise spirit safety culture is its important goal. This provides reference for enterprise safety management.

Analysis of China's work safety policy based on 3D framework

NAN Rui, ZHU Wenjun

2022, 32(11): 31-37. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.0411

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In order to clarify the changing pattern and development trend of China's work safety policy since the reform and opening up, and to promote the modernization of the work safety governance system and capacity, a three-dimensional framework of policy time, policy objectives and policy tools was constructed to quantitatively analyze by selecting 852 policies issued by the central government. The results show that since the reform and opening up, the work safety policy has experienced the period of one-way governance, comprehensive governance and people-oriented governance, and the policy in different periods show different changing characteristics and evolution laws. The goal of work safety policy has experienced the change of "problem-goal-value" orientation. Policy tools have experienced changes from "emphasizing authority supervision over ability cultivation" to "paying equal attention to authority supervision and ability cultivation" and then to "multi-dimensional goal coordination". Work safety has different policy goals and preferences for policy tools in different periods.

Prediction model of rockburst intensity grade based on Hellinger distance and AHDPSO-ELM

WEN Tingxin, CHEN Yilin

2022, 32(11): 38-46. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.1915

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In order to improve the prediction accuracy of rockburst intensity grade, a prediction model based on HDO and AHDPSO-ELM was proposed. Firstly, the main evaluation indexes were selected based on the analysis of the influencing factors of rockburst intensity. The HDO algorithm was used to increase the number of minority samples and balance the rockburst samples of each intensity grade. Then, based on particle swarm optimization (PSO), the adaptive population spacing and mutation operator in differential evolution algorithm (DE) were introduced to design AHDPSO. AHDPSO optimized the input layer weight and hidden layer threshold of ELM, and the rockburst grade prediction model was constructed. Finally, 301 sets of rockburst samples at home and abroad were used to train, test, and compare with other models. The results show that after improving the structure of datasets by the HDO algorithm, the overall average accuracy of rockburst prediction is increased by 11.91%, and the average prediction accuracy of each grade has been improved. The average prediction accuracy of the AHDPSO-ELM rockburst intensity prediction model based on HDO is 98.92%, and the mean square error is 0.010 8. The prediction accuracy is better than other comparison models.

Evaluation system and optimization application of self-explaining road environment oriented positive guidance

DU Zhigang, CHEN Yifei, JIAO Fangtong, ZHENG Haoran, HAN Lei

2022, 32(11): 47-54. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.0460

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In order to solve the problem that the current traffic engineering facilities are chaotic and have negative impacts on traffic safety, based on the concept of self-explaining roads, the design concept and characteristics of the self-explaining visual guiding system were proposed. The visual guiding system and its functions in typical road environment were analyzed, the performance of alignment guidance and contour guidance of various types of facilities were compared, and these facilities were ranked according to the degree of self-explaining. The evaluation system based on the rights-of-way (spatial right-of-way, temporal right-of-way, priority right-of-way), human factors (sight distance, sight zone, visual illusion), and driving tasks (speed control, vehicle distance control, lane keeping) was constructed, and it was applied to the traffic safety evaluation and optimization design of 4 typical unfriendly road environments. The results show that, in the self-explaining guiding system, the continuously set guidance facilities can better describe road information. According to the road environment, combined with the characteristics of various types of visual guiding facilities, the reasonable combination can achieve safe and effective alignment guidance and contour guidance. The self-explaining road environment for active guidance is conductive to clarifying the road rights, optimizing the visual area, and reducing the driver's driving information load and working load.

Experimental study on torque-preload conversion of prestressed screw steel anchor

HOU Junling, LI Chuiyu, ZHAO Neng, ZHANG Dunxi, DU Chenghang

2022, 32(11): 55-64. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.1462

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In order to effectively improve the pre-tightening force of prestressed thread steel bolt and reduce the anchor bolt broken anchor loss phenomenon, the transformation relationship between bolt torque and pre-tightening force and the dangerous points of a bolt in the nut assembly process were analyzed theoretically. The factors affecting pre-tightening force and the causes of bolt fracture were obtained. The bolt torque-pre-tightening force conversion test tooling was developed. The bolt pre-tightening process applied to the total torque, thread pair torque, and tray bearing surface torque were detected, respectively. The rolling friction-reducing gasket of the anchor rod was developed. Through theoretical analysis and field application, the relationship between torque and preload was obtained, and the influence of friction loss of pallets on preload was reduced. The tension-compression separation nut was developed. The force cloud diagram and torque-preload transformation relationship were obtained through numerical simulation and laboratory tests, and the influence of thread pair deformation and poor stress environment on preload was reduced. The results show that the rolling friction-reducing gasket can reduce the friction between the nut and the supporting surface of the tray, improve the torque-preload conversion efficiency, and increase the preload by more than two times. By applying the tension-compression separation nut, the concentrated load bearing of the tension-compression composite of the traditional bolt thread pair is optimized to the uniform load bearing of the tension-compression separation type, which significantly alleviates the stress of the dangerous surface and dangerous point of the bolt, realizes the coordinated deformation of the thread pair, and reduces the phenomenon of broken anchor.

Analysis of coal fracture evolution characteristics under different loading rates

XIAO Peng, GAO Zhen, SHUANG Haiqing, WU Mingchuan, CHENG Yueying, GUO Chenhua

2022, 32(11): 65-73. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2690

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In order to study the influence of loading rate on the evolution of coal fracture, uniaxial compression tests of coal under different loading rates were carried out. Taking raw coal samples as the research object, the relationship between coal mechanical parameters, deformation field evolution cloud map and acoustic emission signal parameters was analyzed by combining digital speckle technology and acoustic emission technology. The research shows that the compressive strength and elastic modulus of coal increase gradually with the increase of loading rate. The compressive strength increases by 25.49%, and the elastic modulus increases by 51.55%. The evolution nephogram of the coal deformation field and the spatial distribution of acoustic emission events can indicate the whole process of fracture development, expansion and fracture. With the increase of loading rate, the failure type of coal body changes from tensile failure to tensile shear composite failure. The relative displacement rate of the localization zone of the coal surface deformation field decreases gradually, and the peak count, peak energy and the number of acoustic emission events increase, while the cumulative count and cumulative energy decrease. The evolution nephogram of the deformation field and the spatial distribution of acoustic emission events can better reflect the evolution characteristics of fracture development, expansion and fracture during coal loading.

Analysis on sensitive indicators of gas outburst based on improved gray prediction method

LU Jintao, JIA Xiaorong, GUO Xinyao

2022, 32(11): 74-81. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.0326

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In order to clarify the relationship between the sensitive indexes of coal and gas outburst, firstly, the grey relational model was adopted, combined with the initial velocity method of drilling gas and the drilling cutting index method, the initial gas emission velocity q_m of drilling gas was selected as the reference sequence, and the analysis index of drilling cuttings gas Δh₂, K₁ and the amount of drilling cuttings S were selected as the comparison sequences to carry out the correlation analysis of the sensitive indexes of coal and gas outburst and determine the key factors affecting the coal and gas outburst accidents. Then the classical Gray Prediction model (GM (1,1)) was improved by introducing buffer weakening operators and automatic optimization and weighting method. The model was built, and the correlations among the q_m, Δh₂, K₁ and S were quantitatively analyzed. Finally, each index parameter was calculated using the measured gas data from a coal mining face in Shanxi, China. Results show that in the mentioned coalmine, the order of influence of coal and gas outburst sensitive indexes on outburst risk is followed as Δh₂ > S > K₁. And there is a crossing relation between Δh₂ K₁, S and q_m. The small error probability value of the improved grey prediction model increased from 0.69 to 0.87, the ratio of the posterior error decreased from 0.500 0 to 0.431 7, and the prediction grade was improved from pass to good.

Ultrafine spiral atomized nozzle dust technology and its application

JING Deji, WANG Zhiheng, GE Shaocheng, ZHANG Tian, REN Shuaishuai, JIA Xin

2022, 32(11): 82-89. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2718

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In order to solve the problem of dust pollution in the coal mine, a new ultra-fine spiral atomization nozzle with small droplet size and strong dust-falling ability was developed according to the principle of gas-water spray and the characteristics of vortex airflow generation. Firstly, the numerical simulation software was used to simulate the velocity and streamline distribution characteristics of the airflow field inside the airflow guide under different parameters, and the optimal spiral effect parameters of the airflow guide were obtained. Then, an experimental platform was built to determine the performance parameters of the ultra-fine spiral atomization nozzle. Finally, through the comparative test of ultrasonic dry fog dust suppression efficiency,the dust suppression performance of the ultra-fine spiral atomizing nozzle was studied, and a set of high-efficiency dust removal facilities was deigned and applied to the 06 return airway of Mindong No.1 mine. The results show that when the angle α between the spiral groove and the conical wall is α=30° and the ratio of the top surface diameter of the airflow guide to the height d is 1.25, the directional air flow spiral effect of the air flow guide is the best. When the spray pressure is 0.4 MPa, the atomization angle of the ultra-fine spiral atomization nozzle is the largest, and the diameter of fog droplets, which account for 90% of the number of droplets, is less than 19.7 μm, and the comprehensive atomization performance is the best. At this time, the total dust reduction efficiency is 92.18%, which is 10.21% higher than that of ultrasonic dry fog dust suppression. The dust removal efficiency of the full-section spiral pneumaticfog curtain with ultra-fine spiral atomizing nozzles as the core is 88.8%-91.58%.

Research on spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of safety nazards in hydropower projects

CHEN Shu, LIU Wenzhuo, SHAO Bo, XI Junbo, WANG Jianping

2022, 32(11): 90-96. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2227

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In order to reveal the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of safety hazards, the data of 32 060 safety hazards during the construction of a large-scale hydropower project were mined. The phrase extraction technology based on the TF-CRF algorithm was used to establish a word cloud map of the types and parts of hazards, reflecting the word frequency distribution feature of key information about safety hazards. The Sankey diagram was produced to represent the information flow features among characteristics, locations and types of safety hazards. The sequential network of near-misses was constructed to analyze the time characteristics and dynamic relationships of different types of safety hazards. The results show that safety hazards such as the construction of the bent frame, steel formwork trolley, and bent frame erection frequently occur in underground caverns, caves, platforms and other parts, which are the focus of safety management. From the Sankey diagram, the information flow related to the steel formwork trolley and the bent frame is the densest, and the safety hazards related to them are the most. From the network diagram, Electric shock safety hazards occur most frequently in November and December, and the number of occurrences is the least in January and February. Integrating three types of safety hazards into the same network for verification shows that this method is feasible and also finds the highest number of safety hazards related to civilized construction. These should be attached with great importance by the managers.

Study on fractal discrete fracture network model of radon migration in fractured medium

FENG Shengyang, LI Ce, LIU Yong, KANG Qian

2022, 32(11): 97-104. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.0284

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In order to effectively carry out radon pollution control and radon tracing research, the fractal theory and DFN were combined to establish a model of radon migration in fractured medium. In the model, the distribution of fracture lengths was obtained by a double-power law model. The location of fracture centers was determined by the multiplicative cascade process method. The von Mises-Fisher method and the lognormal distribution method were used to model fracture orientations and fracture apertures, respectively. The model was verified by using a test device, and a natural fractured rock mass was analyzed by the model. The results show that the maximum difference between the radon activity concentrations calculated by the model and the test is less than 4%. The average radon exhalation rate of the fractured rock mass is 0.002 58 Bq/(m²·s), and interconnected fractures in the rock mass constitute the primary channels for radon migration. The maximum radon flux of the dense fractures is about 3 orders of magnitude higher than that at the sparse fractures. The average radon exhalation rate in fractured medium increases linearly with the fractal dimension, decreases linearly with the length index, and shows a nonlinear increase relationship with the convection velocity.

Risk assessment of surface subsidence in karst tunnels under attribute recognition theory

ZHOU Zelin, ZHANG Kai, ZHANG Heng, CHEN Shougen, GAN Hailong

2022, 32(11): 105-112. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.1867

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In order to accurately predict the risk of surface collapse caused by karst tunnel construction, the risk evaluation of surface collapse along karst tunnels is established by using attribute evaluation method. The key factors of controlling surface collapse along karst tunnels are selected as the evaluation index of tunnel surface collapse risk. The attribute measure functions are constructed to calculate theattribute measures of each risk evaluation index. Using the integrated weighting method to determine the weights of each evaluation index. Finally, a confidence criterion was applied to recognize the surface collapse risk level, and its feasibility is verified by engineering application. The research results indicate that the risk assessment results of ground collapse obtained by the extension risk evaluation system established in this research are in good agreement with the actual engineering practice. In the established risk assessment system, the form of attribute measure function is fixed, and the determination of index weightconsiders the objective cognition of people and objective information of things, which can significantly improve the reliability od risk assessment results.

Human-computer interaction safety analysis of airborne system from perspective of emergence

ZHAO Changxiao, LI Hao, ZHANG Wei, DONG Lei

2022, 32(11): 113-120. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.1890

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In order to solve the problem that the risk of human-computer interaction behavior caused by the application of new technologies in avionics systems is difficult to be covered by existing safety assessment methods. The airworthiness requirements for human-computer interaction of avionics systems were sorted out. The hierarchical emergent model of airborne systems was constructed based on the emergence perspective. The STPA method was introduced to the identify and analyze the unsafe control action(UCA), and the human-computer interaction risk safety analysis process was formed. Taking the human-computer interaction behavior of airborne flat screen display system in the approaching process as an example, the human-computer interaction task decomposition is completed. The results show that based on the emergence perspective, the human-computer interaction risk of airborne systems can be effectively identified by constructing the security control structure, and the mitigation measures against various risk-causing factors can effectively reduce the risk impact in the system design stage.

Experimental research on suppression of leakage diffusion of cryogenic liquid by high expansion foam

ZHANG Yixiang, ZHU Jianlu, PENG Youmei, YANG Jie, LI Yuxing

2022, 32(11): 121-125. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2689

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To improve the emergency management of the fire prevention and emergency response of the liquified natural gas (LNG) receiving station, and to clarify the essential mechanism and environmental effect of high expansion foam suppression on leakage and diffusion of cryogenic liquid, an experimental study of high expansion foam suppression on leakage and diffusion of liquid nitrogen through an indoor foam generator and wind tunnel device was conducted by control variable method. Then, the drainage behavior and suppression effect of high expansion foam on cryogenic liquid under different conditions between crosswinds and thermal radiations were also measured. The results show that at the initial stage, the drainage rate of foam is fast. The drainage rate of foam gradually decreases with the decrease of liquid quality in foam system, and the drainage rate of foam decreases exponentially. With the application of crosswinds and thermal radiations, the foam drainage rate rapidly increases. There are different stages of rapid increase, stable stage and rapid decline stage during the dynamic process of the evaporation rate for foam application on liquid nitrogen. The evaporation rate in stable stage shows a linear increase trend with a maximum value of the evaporation rate at 43.5% and 69.9% when the wind speeds increase from 0 to 3.5 m/s and thermal radiations increase from 0 to 350 W/m², resulting in a decrease effect of high expansion foam.

Process alarm propagation path analysis method based on time delay estimation

CAI Shuang, WAN Aying, XU Qingqing

2022, 32(11): 126-133. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2321

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In order to avoid the problem of associated alarm flooding due to the large number of process equipment and the increase of process alarm configuration in complex large-scale systems, a process alarm propagation path analysis method based on time-delay analysis was proposed for the existing causal analysis methods with strong subjectivity and uncertainty factors and lack of validity test of time-delay relationship between variables. Based on K nearest neighbor impuation(KNNI) method, the time delay between variables was estimated to determine the direction of process risk propagation. By calculating the Sorgenfrei similarity coefficient, the alarm correlation degree between the two variables was determined, and the process alarm propagation path diagram was established. This method was applied to a central heating system in a school. The results show that the proposed method can accurately identify two associated alarm propagation paths in the process, namely X₁ (outlet temperature of No.102 heat exchanger) → X₂ (hot water supply temperature in school) → X₃ (hot water supply temperature of No.3 building in Tercero area) and X₁ → X₂ → X₄ (hot water supply temperature of canteen in Tercero area). The obtained time-delay estimation result are in line with the actual situation of the process. According to the model, the time delay of X₂→X₃ (5 min) is much smaller than the time delay of X₂→X₄ (24 min), but the degree of alarm correlation is similar. Based on the difference of the time delay between the two paths, if X₁ has a high alarm, it can prompt the operator to take prior measures (such as reducing hot water flow) to prevent X₃ from having high alarm in a short time, so as to prevent alarm and and ensure the process safety.

Human factor association rules mining and analysis for hazardous chemical accidents

LI Xin, YANG Fuqiang

2022, 32(11): 134-139. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2387

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Apriori algorithm was used to mine the association rules of human factors in hazardous chemical accidents. 217 accident reports were employed as data samples. Based on the accident statistics, 895 association rules were obtained by Apriori algorithm. The rules cover the correlation between human factors, accident time and month and four types of accidents:leakage, explosion, fire and poisoning and asphyxiation. Based on the analysis results, a graph of non-human factors and illegal fire operation lift direction was drawn in this study. Furthermore, a graph of non-human factors and human factors lift direction was drawn. The results show that explosion and fire accidents, leakage and poisoning and asphyxiation accidents have strong correlation rules with each other. Each accident has a strong correlation with the accident time and month. Illegal fire work and three types of accidents (explosion, fire, leakage) are forming strong correlation rules. Nine types of non-human factors, such as inadequate management of work procedures, mixed explosive gas/physical environment, and removed/uninstalled blind, have strong association rules with illegal fire work.

Personnel evacuation model considering guiding role under artificial attack events

SONG Yinghua, ZHANG Yue, MA Yaping, HUO Feizhou, DONG Qiancheng

2022, 32(11): 140-145. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2149

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In order to study the influence of guiding role of evacuation conductor on evacuation of personnel under artificial attacks, the attacker's movement behavior model was established based on physics idea of self-driving force. The dynamic guidance factors of evacuation conductor were introduced, and the evacuation conductor's optimal exit guidance strategy was proposed. A dynamic cellular automata model of crowd evacuation that couples the combined action of the attraction field, the static field and the attack threat field was introduced. Based on constructed model, the room scene simulation experiment was carried out. The results show that guiding role of evacuation conductor is conducive to improving the efficiency of crowd evacuation and reducing the number of deaths. It is also found that increase in the threat of attack by the attacker is not conducive to evacuation, which prolongs the evacuation time and increases the death toll. In addition, the results also show that attack preference has an impact on evacuation of people. The stronger the attacker's preference for pedestrians, the more obvious the rolling behavior of pedestrians in the space, the lower the evacuation efficiency and greater the number of deaths.

A safety risk assessment model of urban areas under disaster chain network

CHEN Guohua, LI Jialing, CHEN Xuexi, YANG Qin

2022, 32(11): 146-153. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2043

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To assess the risk of urban areas more accurately, a safety risk assessment model of urban areas based on disaster chain networks was proposed. The structure representation model of disaster chain network was established, and the risk of disaster chain network was adjusted by the resilience of complex network. A method to measure the risk uncertainty of disaster chain network and the objectivity of historical data was established to reduce the historical dependence and uncertainty of the model. The source control and risk prevention capabilities were used to reduce regional risks. Taking an urban area as the application object, the proposed evaluation model was used to evaluate the regional security risk. The results show that the method simultaneously considers the trigger effect between disasters and the resilience of disaster chain network, the risk uncertainty and the objectivity of historical data, and evaluates the security risk of urban area. Through the example application, it is proved that the triggering relationship of urban disaster and the formation of disaster chain network structure will aggravate the security risk of urban region.

Research on key factors and hot spots of global container shipping fatal accidents

WANG Jinhui, ZHOU Yu, ZHUANG Lei, ZHANG Ruiqing

2022, 32(11): 154-159. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2700

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To identify the key factors and hot spots of fatal accidents during container ship shipping, using global container ship accident data from 1990 to 2015 in Information Handling Services (IHS) Sea-web database, ZINB regression model was used to evaluate the impacts of multiple accident factors on crew deaths, and then kernel density estimation was applied to visualize the hot spots of different accident factors. The findings show that collision and hull/machinery damage accidents have the highest frequency, with 32.9% and 31.3%, respectively, and foundered accidents have the lowest frequency (0.8%). The container ship shipping accident data exhibits a significant zero-expansion phenomenon, and the ZINB regression model can effectively analyze the key factors of fatal accidents. Foundered and fire/explosion accidents have the highest fatality rates, with 0.546 and 0.348, respectively, followed by collision (0.216), contact (0.127), and hull/machinery damage (0.004) accidents. The hot spots of the key factors of container ship shipping fatalities are distributed in Europe, China, Japan, Korea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Suez Canal, the Malacca Strait, and the Singapore Strait, which are traditional hot spots for ship accidents. In addition, the St. Lawrence River and the Salish Sea are newly discovered hot spots. The ZINB regression model and the kernel density estimation method can effectively identify the key factors and hotspots of shipping fatalities, respectively, and are worthy of popularization and application in maritime accident research.

Severity analysis of freight car accidents considering time instability

ZHOU Bei, SUN Qing, ZHANG Shengrui

2022, 32(11): 160-167. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2245

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In order to improve truck traffic safety, a total of 29 213 accident data from 2014 to 2019 in the British STATS database were taken as the research object, the accident severity was taken as the dependent variable, and the crash characteristics related to people, vehicle, roadway and environment were considered as independent variables. The random parameter ordered logit model was constructed. Meanwhile, the log-likelihood ratio tests were used to test the time stability of the crash data within years period. The results show that there is serious time instability in the accident data, which should be divided into four groups:2014-2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019. this study finds 8 variables exhibit significant impacts on accident severity in all four crash models, including car drivers over 60 years old, truck turning, truck lane changing and so on. Other variables are only statistically significant in year-specific crash models. In addition, 9 variables exhibit heterogeneous effects on accident severity in a specific year accident models, including car drivers over 60 years old, truck lane changing, etc.

Accident analysis and countermeasures of university hazardous chemical laboratory based on 24Model

GUO Haijun, TANG Hanlu, WANG Kai, YU Yingjie, WU Yuchen, XU Chao

2022, 32(11): 168-174. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2442

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In order to formulate safety management countermeasures and optimize laboratory safety training for hazardous chemical laboratories in universities, taking the explosion accident of a dangerous chemical laboratory in a university as an example, 24Model of behavior safety was used to to study the direct cause deeply, indirect cause, root cause and the root cause of the accident from the individual level and the organization level. Then the accident behavior analysis model of the dangerous chemical laboratory was established. The model provided specific requirements for the daily supervision and inspection of the laboratory, the construction of the laboratory risk control system and the construction of the laboratory accident emergency response system. Based on this model, the current domestic laboratory teaching models were investigated, and the safety education and training system of hazardous chemical laboratories in colleges and universities was constructed. The results hold that the model analysis security 24Model is generally applicable to the cause of the accident analysis. Analyzing accidents in laboratories in colleges and universities by the model, putting forward suggestions for improvement from the individual level and organizational level, can improve college for laboratory safety management, improve the students' consciousness of security risks, fundamentally to prevent accidents.

Speed-density relationship and congestion risk analysis in bidirectional children flow

XUE Shuqi, CHEN Qinghua, LIU Yuhan, GONG Zhuangzhuang

2022, 32(11): 175-183. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.1201

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In order to compensate the lack of understanding on children collective movement, especially the speed-density relationship and congestion risk of different age groups of children, a series of bidirectional flow experiments were conducted with 40-80 pre-school children in a kindergarten. The speed-density relationship of children from different age groups was analyzed based on Voronoi method. The CVS was introduced to depict the scatter characteristics of children walking speed and the results were compared with the adult experiments. Based on Voronoi neighborhood and social force model, the congestion risk of different age groups of children was also investigated. The results suggest that the walking speed of 5-6 years old group is the most scattered, with their average value of CVS being 1.2 and 2.2 times that of 3-4 years old group and 4-5 years old group, respectively. The CVS of all the three age groups of children are higher than that of adult experiments, with the CVS of 5-6 years old group being 2.5 and 4.7 times that of Chinese and Japanese adult experiments, respectively. In addition, the congestion risk of children group in the bidirectional flow is close to 27%-64% of that of adult group.

Safety evaluation method of crowd channelization strategy at entrance of pedestrian passage

ZHUANG Yifan, HUANG Jiajun, LIU Zhigang, YANG Lizhong, PAN Hanchuan

2022, 32(11): 184-191. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.0590

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To solve the problem of insufficient understanding of the potential dangers caused by crowd intervention in the process of implementing the channelization strategy at the entrance of pedestrian passage, a safety assessment method of channelization strategy was proposed. Firstly, from the micro perspective of pedestrian movements, the characteristics of the channelization strategy on the whole process of multi-directional crowd inflow-canalization-confluence were analyzed. Then, the indicators reflecting the orderliness, rapidity and fairness of the whole confluence process were designed based on channelization length, channelization time, and direction change angle, and a three-stage safety evaluation method of the channelization strategy was formulated. Finally, the crowd channelization experiments were carried out based on the actual characteristics to reveal the influence mechanism of confluence direction, the channelization spacing and motion area on the sensitivity of evaluation parameters. The results show that the hierarchical regional distribution of orderliness and rapidity indicators can better reflect the risk characteristics of crowd conflict and crowding in the outer diameter of the lateral confluence and the central axis of the channel. Compared with "two persons wide" channelization strategy, the "one person wide" channelization strategy generates a more balanced interactive feedback on the crowd movement of different confluence directions, and with the increase of the number of entrance confluence directions, its safety promotion is better.

Research on BN of network public opinion crisis risk caused by short videos of rainstorm disaster

LYU Wei, ZHOU Wennan, CHEN Wentao, HAN Yefan, FANG Zhiming

2022, 32(11): 192-199. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.0077

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In order to reduce the risk of network public opinion crisis caused by short videos, taking the "7·20" Henan rainstorm incident as an example, this paper constructed a prediction index system for the risk of public opinion crisis based on short-form online videos from five aspects:the degree of disaster, response behavior, video attributes, public opinion sentiment tendency and public opinion spread diffusion of the unexpected incident. BN was used to build a prediction model to discuss the accuracy of public opinion forecast. The validation results indicate that the model can effectively predict the risk level of network public opinion crisis, and the public's response behavior in the face of emergencies has an important influence on the risk level of public opinion crisis, sentiment tendency and the spread of public opinion. When the disaster is severe and the public's behavior is relatively negative, the main reason for the outbreak of public opinion is the public's emotional tendency and the spread of public opinion. Short videos with a high number of comments are more likely to trigger network public opinion crises than retweets and likes.

Research on post-earthquake emergency material allocation considering psychological pain of victims

GAO Pengfei, LIU Fangxiang, HUANG Jianhua, WANG Yang

2022, 32(11): 200-207. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.1392

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In order to effectively reduce the psychological pain of the victims under the condition of post-earthquake relief material shortage, firstly, a pain cost function is constructed to describe the psychological pain of the victims, and the average pain cost is used to characterize the timeliness and fairness of relief material allocation.Then, aiming ae the lowest average pain cost of the victims and the lowest cost of emergency logistics, this paper constructs a two-stage multi-objective planning model of emergency material distribution center location and coordinated intermodal transportation of materials, and designs an improved two-population genetic algorithm with phased decoding to solve the problem. Finally, an example analysis is made based on actual situation of emergency materials support after Wenchuan Earthquake. The results show that increasing the number of distribution centers can improve the fairness and timeliness of post-earthquake emergency material allocation and effectively alleviate the psychological trauma of the victims;under the premise of determining the number of distribution centers, improving the fairness and timeliness of emergency material allocation will not have a significant impact on logistics costs.

Optimization method of ship dispatching for emergency rescue of personnel falling overboard on offshore platform

PENG Rongqi, KONG Depeng, PANG Wendi, HONG Wanru

2022, 32(11): 208-215. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.1272

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In order to reduce the loss of offshore platform accidents, reasonable dispatch of rescue resources to meet the rescue needs of personnel, taking the emergency rescue of the offshore platform under the explosion accident as the case, considering multiple forms of the evacuation of the target from the platform to the water, a novel optimization method for the scheduling management of rescue ships was proposed based on the drift prediction path. According to the drift prediction model, the drift path of the targets in distress was studied and the search area was determined. By comparing different objective functions, the maximum cumulative probability of success (POS) and the minimum number of dispatched ships were selected as the objectives. Then, the single-objective optimization and multi-objective optimization models were constructed to balance the different objectives. The results show that the ship dispatch planning to each sub-region after integrating multiple distress forms tended to be reasonable compared to single distress forms. It improved the effectiveness of maritime rescue emergency response and avoided scheduling conflicts and the waste of rescue resources. Based on the model, the decision makers could adjust the objective function weights according to different decision needs and then determine the better weight interval to achieve a reasonable allocation of rescue resources.

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