A safety risk assessment model of urban areas under disaster chain network

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.11.2043

Abstract

Abstract:

To assess the risk of urban areas more accurately, a safety risk assessment model of urban areas based on disaster chain networks was proposed. The structure representation model of disaster chain network was established, and the risk of disaster chain network was adjusted by the resilience of complex network. A method to measure the risk uncertainty of disaster chain network and the objectivity of historical data was established to reduce the historical dependence and uncertainty of the model. The source control and risk prevention capabilities were used to reduce regional risks. Taking an urban area as the application object, the proposed evaluation model was used to evaluate the regional security risk. The results show that the method simultaneously considers the trigger effect between disasters and the resilience of disaster chain network, the risk uncertainty and the objectivity of historical data, and evaluates the security risk of urban area. Through the example application, it is proved that the triggering relationship of urban disaster and the formation of disaster chain network structure will aggravate the security risk of urban region.

Key words: disaster chain retworks, urban area, safety risk assessment, urban disaster, complex networks

CHEN Guohua, LI Jialing, CHEN Xuexi, YANG Qin. A safety risk assessment model of urban areas under disaster chain network[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(11): 146-153.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1

Fig.2

Tab.1

Risk assessment elements index system and grading standard

指标类型	等级 (描述,值)	一级 (极低,1)	二级 (低,2)	三级 (中,3)	四级 (高,4)	五级 (极高,5)
可能性 $x q i a$	诱发因素产生的可能性	不易出现	较少出现	可能出现	较常出现	持续存在
源头管控能力 $C y i$	安全预警技术完善程度	[0,0.2)	[0.2,0.4)	[0.4,0.6)	[0.6,0.8)	[0.8,1]
	源头治理技术措施完善程度	[0,0.2)	[0.2,0.4)	[0.4,0.6)	[0.6,0.8)	[0.8,1]
	周期隐患排查整改程度	[0,0.3)	[0.3,0.6)	[0.6,0.8)	[0.8,1)	1
	安全管理人员配备达标程度	[0,0.3)	[0.3,0.6)	[0.6,0.8)	[0.8,1)	1
灾害事件历史损失 $L h i$	死亡率D_i/(人·次^-1)	0	(0,1)	[1,3)	[3,10)	[10,∞)
	受伤率I_i/(人·次^-1)	0	(0,5)	[5,10)	[10,50)	[50,∞)
	经济损失F_i/(万元·次^-1)	[0,1)	[1,10)	[10,100)	[100,1000)	[1000,∞)
灾害事件强度q_i	灾害事件发生的强度	极弱	较弱	中等	较强	极强
承灾体暴露度 $V E i$	受影响人口占比	[0,0.01)	[0.01,0.04)	[0.04,0.07)	[0.07,0.1)	[0.1,1]
	死伤率/人/万人	[0,0.1)	[0.1,0.2)	[0.2,0.3)	[0.3,0.4)	[0.4,10 000]
	受影响面积占比	[0,0.01)	[0.01,0.04)	[0.04,0.07)	[0.07,0.1)	[0.1,1]
	受影响GDP占比	[0,0.01)	[0.01,0.04)	[0.04,0.07)	[0.07,0.1)	[0.1,1]
承灾体脆弱性V_C	人口抚养比	[0,0.25)	[0.25,0.3)	[0.3,0.4)	[0.4,0.5)	[0.5,1]
	失业率	[0,0.02)	[0.02,0.03)	[0.03,0.04)	[0.04,0.05)	[0.05,1]
	大专及以上学历人数占比	[0.2,1]	[0.15,0.2)	[0.1,0.15)	[0.05,0.1)	[0,0.05)
	每千人拥有医生数	[4.5,1 000]	[4.25,4.5)	[4.25,4)	[3.5,3.75)	[0,3.5)
	每千人拥有病床数	[9,1 000]	[8,9)	[7,8)	[6,7)	[0,6)
	人均GDP/万元	[10,∞)	[7,10)	[5.5,7)	[4.5,5.5)	[0,4.5)
	第三产业占比	[0.6,1]	[0.5,0.6)	[0.45,0.5)	[0.4,0.45)	[0,0.4)
	第二产业占比	[0,0.45)	[0.45,0.5)	[0.5,0.55)	[0.55,0.6)	[0.6,1]
	基尼指数	[0,0.2)	[0.2,0.3)	[0.3,0.4)	[0.4,0.5)	[0.5,1]
风险防范能力 $C f i$	安全基础设施完善程度	[0,0.2)	[0.2,0.4)	[0.4,0.6)	[0.6,0.8)	[0.8,1]
	安全管理制度完善落实程度	[0,0.2)	[0.2,0.4)	[0.4,0.6)	[0.6,0.8)	[0.8,1]
	宣传教育活动覆盖程度	[0,0.2)	[0.2,0.4)	[0.4,0.6)	[0.6,0.8)	[0.8,1]
	安全生产教育达标程度	[0,0.3)	[0.3,0.6)	[0.6,0.8)	[0.8,1)	1

Tab.1

Tab.2

Tab.3

Historical disaster accident statistics in Z urban area

灾害类型	事故种类	事故起数	死伤人数	经济损失
自然灾害	台风灾害 $A 1$	23	0	—
	地质灾害 $A 2$	25	0	0
	森林火灾 $A 3$	0	0	0
	雷电灾害 $A 4$	20	0	5.84
事故灾难	危险化学品生产经营单位火灾爆炸事故 $A 5$	0	0	0
	危险货物运输火灾爆炸事故 $A 6$	0	0	0
	粉尘涉爆企业火灾爆炸事故 $A 7$	0	0	0
	建筑施工安全事故 $A 8$	11	11	1120
	人员密集场所消防安全事故 $A 9$	5	0	0.7
	城镇燃气管道事故 $A 10$	0	0	0
	电力设施安全事故 $A 11$	0	0	0
	道路交通运输事故 $A 12$	13 532	841	371

Tab.3

Fig.3

Tab.4

Probability of occurrence of each disaster event in Z urban area

触发灾害	被触发灾害
触发灾害	$A 1$	$A 2$	$A 3$	$A 4$	$A 5$	$A 6$	$A 7$	$A 8$	$A 9$	$A 10$	$A 11$	$A 12$
$A 1$	0.67	0.28	0	0.14	0.21	0.14	0.21	0.28	0	0.07	0.07	0.07
$A 2$	0	0.56	0	0	0	0.14	0	0.28	0	0	0	0.14
$A 3$	0	0	0.22	0	0.28	0.28	0.28	0	0	0	0.28	0
$A 4$	0	0	0.15	0.59	0.14	0.14	0.14	0	0.07	0	0.14	0
$A 5$	0	0	0.22	0	0.14	0	0.07	0	0	0	0	0
$A 6$	0	0	0.22	0	0.14	0.21	0	0	0	0	0	0.22
$A 7$	0	0	0	0	0.07	0	0.21	0	0	0	0	0
$A 8$	0	0.15	0	0	0	0	0	0.67	0	0	0	0
$A 9$	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.35	0	0.07	0
$A 10$	0	0	0.15	0	0	0	0	0	0.21	0.14	0.07	0.14
$A 11$	0	0	0.22	0	0.21	0.21	0.21	0	0	0.07	0.07	0
$A 12$	0	0	0	0	0	0.35	0	0	0	0	0	0.64

Tab.4

Tab.5

Losses and safety risks of accidents in Z urban area

事件	$L i$	$R i$	$λ - i$	$R d i$	风险等级	$w i$
$A 1$	11.16	22.46	0.83	18.75	较高	0.13
$A 2$	4.74	8.65	0.52	4.51	较低	0.08
$A 3$	6.59	5.20	0.40	2.06	较低	0.06
$A 4$	3.88	9.26	0.82	7.55	中	0.12
$A 5$	12.88	2.46	0.30	0.74	低	0.05
$A 6$	8.40	3.72	0.52	1.94	较低	0.08
$A 7$	8.40	2.00	0.19	0.39	低	0.03
$A 8$	21.71	15.37	0.49	7.60	中	0.08
$A 9$	6.97	3.19	0.69	2.20	较低	0.11
$A 10$	25.53	4.79	0.6	2.90	较低	0.09
$A 11$	15.47	2.14	0.69	1.48	较低	0.11
$A 12$	14.15	12.33	0.52	6.41	中	0.08
A	$R = 9.55$ ;中

Tab.5

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