Evaluation of urban resilience based on PSR model and information sensitivity: a case study of Beijing

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.08.0149

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to make a comprehensive and effective judgment on the development of urban resilience, it is essential to construct a scientific and reasonable evaluation index system of urban resilience. Based on the PSR model, this paper initially established the urban resilience evaluation index system covering 68 primary indicators, and the index system was optimized by information sensitivity and Pearson correlation analysis. Finally, the weight of each indicator was determined by CRITIC, and an evaluation model was developed using the comprehensive index method. Taking Beijing as an example, according to the data from 2010-2021, an index system with 31 indicators was obtained, and the urban resilience was evaluated and analyzed. The results show that urban resilience of Beijing has shown an overall upward trend from 2010-2021, with the index increasing from 0.436 7 in 2010 to 0.558 6 in 2021. The result shows the model can figure out the weak link in the city under emergency with the constructed model and evaluation index system, which is beneficial for the relevant departments to put forward the strengthening-resilience suggestions.

Key words: press-state-response (PSR) model, information sensitivity, urban resilience, evaluation index system, correlation analysis, criteria importance though inter-criteria correlation (CRITIC)

WANG Qifei, ZHAO Yihan, ZHANG Hui, WANG Jian, WANG Yafei. Evaluation of urban resilience based on PSR model and information sensitivity: a case study of Beijing[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(8): 198-204.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig.1

Tab.1

Primary index of urban resilience based on PSR model

目标层	准则层	要素层	指标
城市韧性度	压力 P	自然灾害P₁	P₁₁年平均气温()、P₁₂年降水量()、P₁₃风雹受灾面积(-)、P₁₄低温雪灾受灾面积(-)、 P₁₅森林火灾次数(-)、P₁₆地质灾害发生次数(-)、P₁₇地震灾害发生次数(-)、P₁₈林业生物灾害发生面积(-)、P₁₉海洋灾害次数(-)
		事故灾难P₂	P₂₁企业安全生产事故死亡率(-)、P₂₂交通事故次数(-)、P₂₃火灾发生次数(-)、P₂₄突发环境事件次数(-)
		公共卫生P₃	P₃₁甲乙类传染病发病率(-)、P₃₂食品安全监测抽查合格率(-)、P₃₃药品抽检合格率、P₃₄损伤和中毒死亡率
		社会安全P₄	P₄₁刑事案件立案数量(-)
	状态 S	经济水平S₁	S₁₁ 国内生产总值(+)、S₁₂居民消费水平(+)、S₁₃城镇单位就业人员平均工资(+)、S₁₄城镇登记失业率(-)、S₁₅人口密度(-)
		社会保障S₂	S₂₁参加养老保险人数(+)、S₂₂参加医疗保险人数(+)、S₂₃参加失业保险人数(+)、S₂₄参加工伤保险人数(+)、S₂₅参加生育保险人数(+)、S₂₆最低生活保障人数(-)、S₂₇医疗机构数量(+)、S₂₈医疗机构床位数量(+)、S₂₉医护人员数量(+)
		生态环境S₃	S₃₁森林面积(-)、S₃₂森林覆盖率(-)、S₃₃人均公园绿地面积(+)、S₃₄城市绿化覆盖率(+)、S₃₅ PM_2.5年平均浓度(-)、S₃₆ SO₂年平均浓度(-)、S₃₇ NO₂年平均浓度(-)
		基础设施S₄	S₄₁供水管道长度(+)、S₄₂居民燃气用户(+)、S₄₃供热管道长度(+)、S₄₄污水处理率(+)、 S₄₅生活垃圾无害化处理率(+)、S₄₆公共交通运营线路数量(+)、S₄₇公共交通运营线路总长度(+)、S₄₈公共交通运营车辆数量(+)、S₄₉公共交通客运量(+)、S₄₁₀地震应急避难场所(+)、S₄₁₁地震应急避难面积(+)
	响应 R	预警能力R₁	R₁₁广播节目综合人口覆盖率(+)、R₁₂电视节目综合人口覆盖率(+)、R₁₃自动气象站数量(+)、R₁₄天气雷达观测站数量(+)、R₁₅疾病预防控制中心数量(+)、R₁₆地震台总数(+)、 R₁₇路口电视监视点位(+)
		恢复能力R₂	R₂₁地方医疗卫生支出(+)、R₂₂基础设施投资比例(+)、R₂₃消防站数量(+)、R₂₄消防站车辆数量(+)、R₂₅企业专职消防队人数(+)、R₂₆工业污染治理完成投资(+)、R₂₇灾害防治及应急管理支出(+)
		学习能力R₃	R₃₁各类学校数量(+)、R₃₂教职工数量(+)、R₃₃科学研究、技术服务从业人数(+)、R₃₄ IT行业从业人员(+)

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Tab.3

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Tab.4

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年份	2020					2021
指标	P₁₅/ 次	P₂₃/ 次	P₃₄/ 10^-5	S₁₄/ %	R₂₆/ 万元	P₁₅/ 次	P₂₃/ 次	P₃₄/ 10^-5	S₁₄/ %	R₂₆/ 万元
原始值	8	7 106	28	2.56	5 122	0	7 490	30.5	3.23	6 350
优化值	5	4 330	27.9	1.62	84 906.4	0	4 969	29.2	1.99	66 422.4