Research on influencing factors of evacuation behavior in ancient town fire emergencies

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.04.1328

Abstract

Abstract:

To understand evacuation behavior and psychological characteristics in the event of a sudden fire in an ancient town, and to accurately identify the factors influencing personnel evacuation behavior, a questionnaire survey on evacuation behavior was conducted in an ancient town in Zhejiang Province. The survey focused on three aspects: basic population characteristics, awareness and attitudes toward fire risk in the ancient town, and evacuation behavior. Subsequently, the correlation between evacuation behavior and factors such as age group, frequency of fire drills, and understanding of fire risks in ancient towns was comprehensively analyzed using the Pearson's Chi-square test and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning algorithm. The results indicate that tourists (77.78%) are more aware of fire risks in the ancient town than local residents and merchants (22.22%). Age has a significant impact on returning behavior. The higher the level of education, the less likely respondents are to engage in overtaking behavior during evacuation (decreasing from 85% to 33%). Individuals who have not proactively familiarized themselves with emergency exits are more likely to exhibit herd and 'habitual' behavior when choosing evacuation exits (increasing from 8% to 33% and from12% to 20%, respectively). Special attention should be given to fire safety training for local residents and merchants. Fire safety management in the ancient town should be strengthened, and evacuation plans tailored to different age groups should be developed to improve evacuation capabilities in the event of a sudden fire in the ancient town.

Key words: ancient town fire, personnel evacuation behavior, questionnaire survey, influencing factors, risk awareness ability, transcend behavior

CLC Number:

X928.7火灾与爆炸事故

ZHAO Jinlong, MA Long, XU Tong, ZHAO Lihong, WANG Zhenhua. Research on influencing factors of evacuation behavior in ancient town fire emergencies[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(4): 195-203.

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问题类别	问题内容	问题选项
人员基本特征	性别	□男 □女
	年龄段	□14~18 □18~25 □26~30 □31~40 □41~50 □51~60
	受教育程度	□小学 □初中 □高中 □本科或大专 □研究生
	身份	□古镇居民 □商户 □游客
	古镇居住时间	□少于1个月 □1~6个月 □6个月~1年 □超过1年
	消防安全知识了解情况	□不知道,没接触过 □接受过学校基础教育 □接受过专门消防知识或训练
	经历消防救援演习频率	□从未接受过 □低于每年1次 □每年1次以上
古镇火灾风险认知能力及态度	是否了解过古镇火灾风险	□从未了解过 □了解过 □了解过并做过相应准备
	古镇火灾特点辨识能力 (多选)	□建筑材料为木结构等易燃材料 □火灾损失较大 □防火间距不足易造成火灾蔓延 □建筑规划不合理,火灾扑救难 □不清楚
	古镇火灾预防措施辨识能力 (多选)	□定期电气线路检查 □禁烟规定 □易燃物品管理 □消防宣传教育 □不清楚
	是否会主动熟悉安全出口或逃生路线	□不会 □偶尔会 □大多数时候会 □每次都会
人员疏散行为	疏散出口选择情况	□最近的出口 □跟随大众 □依照疏散指示标识 □最熟悉的出口
	被困阁楼时选择	□待在原地,等待救援 □采取一定措施向安全处逃生 □跳出窗外
	亲友走散时是否愿意折返	□不愿意 □不清楚 □愿意
	财物丢失或遗留是否愿意折返	□不愿意 □不清楚 □愿意
	当前面人群疏散较慢是否愿意超越	□不愿意 □不清楚 □愿意
	疏散过程中有人争抢是否愿意相让	□不愿意 □不清楚 □愿意

问题	选项	频数	占比/%
消防安全知识了解情况	不知道,没接触过	20	13.16
	看过消防宣传资料或影视节目	96	63.16
	接受过专门消防安全知识或训练	36	23.68
经历消防救援演习频率	从未经历过	28	18.42
	经历过,但不记得	45	29.61
	低于每年1次	43	28.29
	每年1次及以上	36	23.68

问题	选项	频数	占比/%
对于古镇火灾风险了解情况	没有了解	78	51.32
	了解过	59	38.82
	不仅了解过,还做过相应准备	15	9.87
古镇火灾特点了解情况 (多选)	建筑材料为木材等易燃材料	106	69.74
	防火间距不足导致火灾蔓延	63	41.45
	建筑规划不合理, 火灾扑救难	104	68.42
	火灾损失较大	96	63.16
	不清楚	36	23.68
古镇内部火灾预防措施了解情况(多选)	定期电气线路检查	115	75.66
	禁烟规定	92	60.53
	易燃物品管理	115	75.66
	消防宣传教育	92	60.53
	不清楚	37	24.34
进入古镇公共场所是否会主动熟悉安全出口或逃生路线	不会	38	25.00
	偶尔会	60	39.47
	大多数时候会	41	26.97
	每次都会	13	8.55

问题	选项	频数	占比/%
疏散出口选择	距离最近或最熟悉疏散出口	86	56.58
	跟随大众进行疏散	26	17.11
	依照疏散指示标识进行疏散	40	26.32
被困在二楼或阁楼选择	待在原地,等待救援	28	18.42
	采取一定措施向安全处逃生	117	76.97
	跳出窗外	7	4.61
亲友走散,是否愿意折返	不愿意	45	29.61
	不清楚	15	9.87
	愿意	92	60.53
财物丢失或遗留,是否愿意折返	不愿意	102	67.11
	不清楚	13	8.55
	愿意	51	33.55
人群疏散较慢,是否会超越他人	不愿意	61	40.13
	不清楚	40	26.32
	愿意	51	33.55
有人争抢,是否选择让步	不愿意	18	11.84
	不清楚	45	29.61
	愿意	89	58.55

皮尔逊-卡方检验		出口选择	脱困选择	折返 (亲友走散)	折返 (财物遗留)	超越	竞争
性别	相关系数	0.04	0.12	-0.08	-0.16	-0.03	0.00
性别	p值	0.58	0.14	0.31	0.05	0.67	0.96
年龄	相关系数	-0.06	-0.11	0.25^**	0.26^**	0.13	0.07
年龄	p值	0.42	0.19	0.01	0.01	0.11	0.40
受教育程度	相关系数	-0.04	0.09	0.01	-0.11	-0.14^*	0.05
受教育程度	p值	0.66	0.25	0.94	0.16	0.04	0.54
身份	相关系数	-0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.09
身份	p值	0.44	0.94	0.47	0.45	0.36	0.27